ATL: RICHARD - Advisories

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Re: ATL : RICHARD - Advisories

#21 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 23, 2010 10:00 am

8
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010

SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT RICHARD IS STRENGTHENING
QUICKLY. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO ABOUT 1000 MB...WITH
FLIGHT LEVELS WINDS TO 72 KT AND SFMR VALUES TO 54 KT. THESE DATA
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS
APPARENTLY LIGHTENED FROM YESTERDAY WITH NO SIGN OF THE
UNDERCUTTING BENEATH THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW LAYER. GIVEN THE WARM
WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION
IS LIKELY AS LONG AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE OF
HONDURAS. THE LGEM/SHIPS MODELS NOW SHOW RICHARD BECOMING A
HURRICANE...THOUGH ODDLY THE HWRF/GFDL KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A
TROPICAL STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INCREASED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE...REMAINING BELOW THE LGEM/SHIPS MODELS BECAUSE OF
POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION. RICHARD IS NOT LIKELY TO REINTENSIFY
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO STRONG SHEAR...THUS THE NEW FORECAST
WILL SHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING BY DAY 5...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE GLOBAL MODELS.

AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS MOVING A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE
WEST AT ABOUT 7 KT. A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED AS
A RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM.
THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS
FOR A TRACK JUST OFFSHORE OF HONDURAS TOWARD THE BAY ISLANDS...THEN
INTO BELIZE IN 36-48 HOURS. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WHILE THE SYSTEM IS IN THE CARIBBEAN...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 48 HOURS. AT
DAYS 3 AND 4...THE FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT CLOSER TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.

HURRICANE WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR BELIZE LATER TODAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1500Z 15.9N 83.5W 55 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 16.1N 84.7W 60 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 16.4N 86.3W 65 KT
36HR VT 25/0000Z 16.8N 88.0W 70 KT
48HR VT 25/1200Z 17.2N 89.6W 40 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 26/1200Z 18.5N 92.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 27/1200Z 20.0N 94.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re: ATL : RICHARD - Advisories

#22 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 23, 2010 12:53 pm

WTNT34 KNHC 231752
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010

...RICHARD MOVING WESTWARD OFFSHORE OF NORTHEASTERN
HONDURAS...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 83.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE
* HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO PUERTO CORTES AND THE BAY
ISLANDS...INCLUDING ROATAN...UTILA...AND GUANAJA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL
* HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUERTO CORTES TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
BORDER AND FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
GUATEMALA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY...NEAR OR OVER THE
BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS EARLY SUNDAY...AND COULD APPROACH THE
COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS AND IN THE BAY ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...AND BELIZE
WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AROUND 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA OF
HONDURAS EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO ON SUNDAY...
WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS LATE SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Advisories

#23 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 23, 2010 3:35 pm

WTNT34 KNHC 232034
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
500 PM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010

...RICHARD MOVING WESTWARD JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN
HONDURAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 84.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM E OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE
* HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO PUERTO CORTES AND THE BAY
ISLANDS...INCLUDING ROATAN...UTILA...AND GUANAJA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL
* HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUERTO CORTES TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
BORDER AND FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
GUATEMALA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...NEAR OR OVER THE
BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS EARLY SUNDAY...AND COULD APPROACH THE
COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RICHARD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS AND BELIZE...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE BAY ISLANDS. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...AND BELIZE
WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AROUND 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA OF
HONDURAS EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ALONG THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO ON
SUNDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF
BELIZE LATE SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

000
WTNT44 KNHC 232034
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
500 PM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF RICHARD IS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF A BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE
CIRCULATION STILL LOOKING A LITTLE DESSICATED. BANDING FEATURES
ARE MOST PROMINENT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...THOUGH BANDS OF
RAIN ARE NOW AFFECTING HONDURAS. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL
REMAIN 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON THE EARLIER RECON DATA.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY BECAUSE OF THE PROXIMITY OF RICHARD
TO LAND...AND INDICATIONS FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE THAT THE LOW- AND
MID-LEVEL CENTERS ARE NOT QUITE ALIGNED. MOST OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE KEEP THE SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM HONDURAS TO ALLOW
SOME STRENGTHENING...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL...LGEM...AND
SHIPS MODELS. THUS...LITTLE CHANGE WILL BE MADE TO THE NEW
FORECAST...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE MODELS.
DISSIPATION DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED AFTER
RICHARD ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THIS
SMALL SYSTEM WILL NOT SURVIVE THE TREK ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.

RICHARD HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280/7 KT. A MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD STEER THE STORM A
LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED ON A PATH CLOSE TO THE BAY ISLANDS EARLY
TOMORROW AND INTO BELIZE LATE SUNDAY. RICHARD SHOULD TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IN A FEW DAYS AS IT REACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE NEW FORECAST IS BASICALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND IS ADJUSTED A
LITTLE TO THE WEST THEREAFTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 16.1N 84.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 16.3N 85.5W 60 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 16.5N 87.2W 65 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 16.8N 88.9W 50 KT
48HR VT 25/1800Z 17.2N 90.4W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 26/1800Z 18.5N 93.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 27/1800Z 20.5N 95.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Advisories

#24 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 23, 2010 6:56 pm

TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010

...AIR FORCE PLANE INVESTIGATING RICHARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 84.4W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM E OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE
* HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO PUERTO CORTES AND THE BAY
ISLANDS...INCLUDING ROATAN...UTILA...AND GUANAJA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL
* HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUERTO CORTES TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
BORDER AND FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
GUATEMALA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...NEAR OR OVER THE BAY
ISLANDS OF HONDURAS EARLY SUNDAY...AND COULD APPROACH THE COASTS OF
BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RICHARD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS AND BELIZE...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE BAY ISLANDS. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...AND BELIZE
WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AROUND 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA OF
HONDURAS EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ALONG THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO ON
SUNDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF
BELIZE LATE SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Advisories

#25 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 23, 2010 9:32 pm

000
WTNT34 KNHC 240231
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010

...LITTLE RICHARD GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 84.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ENE OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE
* HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO PUERTO CORTES AND THE BAY
ISLANDS...INCLUDING ROATAN...UTILA...AND GUANAJA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL
* HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUERTO CORTES TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
BORDER AND FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
GUATEMALA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND NEAR OR OVER THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS EARLY SUNDAY. THE CENTER OF RICHARD IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY LATE
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RICHARD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

RICHARD IS A RELATIVELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER...
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS AND BELIZE...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE BAY ISLANDS. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...AND BELIZE
WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AROUND 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA OF
HONDURAS EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ALONG THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO ON
SUNDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF
BELIZE LATE SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Advisories

#26 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 23, 2010 9:46 pm

TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RICHARD
IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE PLANE MEASURED MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 71 KT AT 925 MB...SURFACE SFMR WINDS OF 58-63
KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 995 MB. BASED UPON THESE DATA...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT. A 2259 UTC SSM/IS OVERPASS
SHOWED A MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE...AND THE PLANE REPORTED A FORMATIVE
20-25 N MI EYEWALL WITH A ROUGHLY 12 N MI RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE TILT OF THE VORTEX MAY BE
GRADUALLY LESSENING...THOUGH VARIOUS SHEAR ANALYSES INDICATE THAT
RESIDUAL WESTERLY SHEAR REMAINS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A BIT CHALLENGING. THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST FEW FORECAST
CYCLES...CALLING FOR A LESSER AMOUNT OF INTENSIFICATION COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS. THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY DRY MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL AIR NEAR THE STORM CIRCULATION AND A SOMEWHAT RAGGED
SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE WOULD ARGUE IN FAVOR OF THIS
TREND. ON THE OTHER HAND...BARRING ANY SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION
WITH LAND...THE RECENT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND THE DECREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COULD PORTEND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO
LANDFALL IN BELIZE. IF RICHARD SURVIVES ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND...
REGENERATION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE
PROHIBITIVELY HIGH SHEAR FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS. THE INTENSITY
WAS INCREASED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST DUE TO CURRENT
TRENDS...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
SHIPS/LGEM OUTPUT FOR THE FIRST 24 HR AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT AFTER
THAT.

USING RECON FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/06. THERE
HAS BEEN VIRTUALLY NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD STEER RICHARD ON A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
COURSE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BRINGING THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE CLOSE TO THE BAY ISLANDS EARLY TOMORROW AND INLAND OVER
BELIZE LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY. AFTER THAT...A WEAKENING
RICHARD OR ITS REMNANTS...THEN A SHALLOWER SYSTEM...SHOULD TURN
NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0300Z 16.3N 84.6W 60 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 16.5N 85.9W 65 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 16.8N 87.7W 70 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 17.1N 89.4W 45 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 26/0000Z 17.5N 90.7W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 27/0000Z 19.0N 93.0W 25 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 28/0000Z 21.0N 94.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Advisories

#27 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 24, 2010 7:01 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
700 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

...RICHARD MOVING NEAR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 86.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM N OF ROATAN
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE
* HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO PUERTO CORTES AND THE BAY
ISLANDS...INCLUDING ROATAN...UTILA...AND GUANAJA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL
* HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUERTO CORTES TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
BORDER AND FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
GUATEMALA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS.....IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS....THAT MAKE
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.4 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...RICHARD SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS LATER THIS MORNING...AND REACH THE COAST OF
BELIZE BY THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL...AND RICHARD
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS AND BELIZE...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE BAY ISLANDS. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...AND BELIZE
WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AROUND 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
HONDURAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA OF HONDURAS BY LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ALONG THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF
BELIZE TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Advisories

#28 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 24, 2010 9:41 am

000
WTNT24 KNHC 241439
TCMAT4
HURRICANE RICHARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1500 UTC SUN OCT 24 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR HONDURAS FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE
* HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO PUERTO CORTES AND THE BAY
ISLANDS...INCLUDING ROATAN...UTILA...AND GUANAJA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL
* HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUERTO CORTES TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
BORDER

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
GUATEMALA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS.....IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS....THAT MAKE
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 86.9W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 86.9W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 86.4W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.4N 88.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...105NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.8N 90.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.4N 91.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.1N 93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.5N 94.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 21.5N 95.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 86.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
WTNT34 KNHC 241444
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RICHARD ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

...RICHARD BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 86.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR HONDURAS FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE
* HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO PUERTO CORTES AND THE BAY
ISLANDS...INCLUDING ROATAN...UTILA...AND GUANAJA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL
* HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUERTO CORTES TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
BORDER

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
GUATEMALA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS.....IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS....THAT MAKE
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER WILL REACH
THE COAST OF BELIZE BY THIS EVENING...AND MOVE OVER LAND TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RICHARD IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE RICHARD MOVES INLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM. THE ISLAND OF ROATAN HONDURAS REPORTED WIND GUSTS
TO 58 MPH...93 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS IS
991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS AND BELIZE...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE BAY ISLANDS. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE BAY ISLANDS...BELIZE...AND THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 10
INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE
COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE BY THIS
EVENING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Advisories

#29 Postby abajan » Sun Oct 24, 2010 9:47 am

000
WTNT34 KNHC 241444
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RICHARD ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

...RICHARD BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 86.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR HONDURAS FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE
* HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO PUERTO CORTES AND THE BAY
ISLANDS...INCLUDING ROATAN...UTILA...AND GUANAJA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL
* HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUERTO CORTES TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
BORDER

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
GUATEMALA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS.....IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS....THAT MAKE
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER WILL REACH
THE COAST OF BELIZE BY THIS EVENING...AND MOVE OVER LAND TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RICHARD IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE RICHARD MOVES INLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM. THE ISLAND OF ROATAN HONDURAS REPORTED WIND GUSTS
TO 58 MPH...93 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS IS
991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS AND BELIZE...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE BAY ISLANDS. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE BAY ISLANDS...BELIZE...AND THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 10
INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE
COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE BY THIS
EVENING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
__________________________________________________________________

000
WTNT44 KNHC 241448
TCDAT4
HURRICANE RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE INDICATE THAT RICHARD HAS
INTENSIFIED TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE PLANE REPORTED MAXIMUM 850
MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 84 KT AND MAXIMUM SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE
WINDS OF 74 KT...SO THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
VERTICAL SHEAR HAS RELAXED OVER THE AREA AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
BECOME QUITE SYMMETRIC WITH WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
BELIZE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY CLOSED EYEWALL. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE CYCLONE STRUCTURE AND ENVIRONMENT...RICHARD SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO IS ABOVE THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES
LAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHEN RICHARD EMERGES INTO THE
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT RE-INTENSIFICATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER...290/10. ASIDE FROM BEING
SLIGHTLY FASTER FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT
ALTERATIONS WERE MADE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST. RICHARD SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTERWARDS...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED BY LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/1500Z 16.9N 86.9W 75 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 17.4N 88.4W 85 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 25/1200Z 17.8N 90.2W 55 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 26/0000Z 18.4N 91.7W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 26/1200Z 19.1N 93.0W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 27/1200Z 20.5N 94.5W 20 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 28/1200Z 21.5N 95.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
Last edited by abajan on Sun Oct 24, 2010 9:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Advisories

#30 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 24, 2010 9:49 am

ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE INDICATE THAT RICHARD HAS
INTENSIFIED TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE PLANE REPORTED MAXIMUM 850
MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 84 KT AND MAXIMUM SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE
WINDS OF 74 KT...SO THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
VERTICAL SHEAR HAS RELAXED OVER THE AREA AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
BECOME QUITE SYMMETRIC WITH WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
BELIZE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY CLOSED EYEWALL. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE CYCLONE STRUCTURE AND ENVIRONMENT...RICHARD SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO IS ABOVE THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES
LAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHEN RICHARD EMERGES INTO THE
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT RE-INTENSIFICATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER...290/10. ASIDE FROM BEING
SLIGHTLY FASTER FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT
ALTERATIONS WERE MADE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST. RICHARD SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTERWARDS...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED BY LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/1500Z 16.9N 86.9W 75 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 17.4N 88.4W 85 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 25/1200Z 17.8N 90.2W 55 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 26/0000Z 18.4N 91.7W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 26/1200Z 19.1N 93.0W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 27/1200Z 20.5N 94.5W 20 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 28/1200Z 21.5N 95.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Advisories

#31 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 24, 2010 12:48 pm

40
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RICHARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
100 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

...RICHARD HEADED FOR BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 87.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE
* HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO PUERTO CORTES AND THE BAY
ISLANDS...INCLUDING ROATAN...UTILA...AND GUANAJA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL
* HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUERTO CORTES TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
BORDER

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
GUATEMALA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS.....IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS....THAT MAKE
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER WILL REACH THE COAST OF BELIZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND
MOVE OVER LAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RICHARD IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE
RICHARD MOVES INLAND. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER RICHARD MOVES
INLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE
THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST IN BELIZE. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE BAY ISLANDS...BELIZE...AND THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 10
INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD ALONG THE
COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Advisories

#32 Postby abajan » Sun Oct 24, 2010 3:52 pm

000
WTNT34 KNHC 242050
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RICHARD ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
400 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

...RICHARD BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF
BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 88.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE AND
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR HONDURAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL
CROSS THE COAST OF BELIZE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND MOVE OVER LAND
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RICHARD IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL...AND WEAKENING WILL BEGIN
AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE
THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST IN BELIZE. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE BAY ISLANDS...BELIZE...AND THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 10
INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF BELIZE WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
_____________________________________________________________________

000
WTNT44 KNHC 242051
TCDAT4
HURRICANE RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
400 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

RICHARD APPEARS TO HAVE INTENSIFIED A LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
HURRICANE REPORTED A PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 86 KT EXITING
THE EYE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE HIGHEST UNFLAGGED SFMR WIND SPEED
WAS 69 KT. HOWEVER...THE SFMR INSTRUMENT HAS ISSUES MEASURING THE
SURFACE WINDS IN AREAS OF SHALLOW WATER SUCH AS IS THE CASE JUST
OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED
FROM A DROPSONDE WAS 981 MB. BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER
CENTRAL PRESSURE AND THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE AND
BELIZE RADAR IMAGES...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. SINCE THE CENTER WILL BE CROSSING THE COASTLINE IN A
COUPLE OF HOURS...SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS NOW
UNLIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. STEADY WEAKENING WILL COMMENCE AFTER
THE CENTER MOVES INLAND THIS EVENING. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO
EMERGE INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A
CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED STATE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...AND STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT RE-INTENSIFICATION.

RICHARD HAS BEEN MOVING AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED...OR
ABOUT 285/11. A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CAUSE SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE
DIVERGENT AFTER A DAY OR SO...REFLECTING AN INCREASED UNCERTAINTY
IN THE STEERING CURRENTS. HOWEVER...SINCE RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO
BE REDUCED TO A WEAK CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS...IT SHOULD THEN BE
STEERED BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT MUCH
DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE SUITE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 17.2N 88.0W 80 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 17.6N 89.4W 60 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 25/1800Z 18.0N 90.5W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 26/0600Z 18.7N 91.5W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 26/1800Z 19.5N 92.5W 25 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 27/1800Z 21.3N 94.3W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 28/1800Z 23.0N 96.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Advisories

#33 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 24, 2010 6:53 pm

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RICHARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
700 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

...RICHARD ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 88.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
RICHARD WILL MOVE INLAND OVER BELIZE TONIGHT...ACROSS NORTHERN
GUATEMALA MONDAY...AND INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RICHARD IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS RICHARD MOVES
INLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE BAY ISLANDS...BELIZE...AND THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 10
INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL BELIZE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

NNNN


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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Advisories

#34 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 24, 2010 9:49 pm

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RICHARD ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1000 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

...EYE OF RICHARD PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 88.6W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM E OF BELMOPAN BELIZE
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM WSW OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.6 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RICHARD WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
BELIZE OVERNIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN GUATEMALA EARLY MONDAY. RICHARD
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND INTO
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RICHARD IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS RICHARD MOVES
FURTHER INLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM. A WIND GUST TO 62 MPH...100 KM/HR...WAS RECENTLY
REPORTED AT THE OFFICIAL OBSERVING SITE IN BELIZE CITY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG
THE COAST OF BELIZE. WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE BAY ISLANDS...BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...
AND THE MEXICAN STATES OF QUINTANA ROO AND CAMPECHE...WITH MAXIMUM
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL BELIZE AND NORTHEASTERN GUATEMALA OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF QUINTANA ROO AND CAMPECHE...AND THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN GUATEMALA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

000
WTNT44 KNHC 250249
TCDAT4
HURRICANE RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1000 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

RADAR DATA FROM BELIZE INDICATE THAT RICHARD MADE LANDFALL AROUND
0045 UTC ABOUT 20 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BELIZE CITY. THE EYE
ACTUALLY BECAME BETTER DEFINED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AFTER
LANDFALL...AND IT DOES NOT YET APPEAR THAT RICHARD HAS BEGUN TO
WEAKEN. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN VERY SOON AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES FURTHER INLAND. RICHARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BEFORE IT ENTERS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER
AIR SHOULD KEEP RICHARD FROM RE-STRENGTHENING ONCE BACK OVER WATER.
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WEAKENS RICHARD TO A REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS AND NOW INDICATES
DISSIPATION BY 96 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF RICHARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWER FORWARD
MOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. ONCE RICHARD BECOMES A WEAK
CYCLONE IT SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS BUT IS A LITTLE
FASTER THEREAFTER...LEANING TOWARD A SCENARIO SUGGESTED BY THE
SHALLOW BAM MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0300Z 17.3N 88.6W 80 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 17.6N 89.7W 55 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 26/0000Z 18.2N 91.0W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 26/1200Z 19.2N 92.2W 30 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 27/0000Z 20.4N 93.3W 25 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 28/0000Z 22.5N 95.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Advisories

#35 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 25, 2010 7:04 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
700 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2010

...RICHARD CONTINUES WEAKENING INLAND OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 89.9W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RICHARD WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO TODAY AND INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND RICHARD
WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN GUATEMALA...AND THE MEXICAN
STATES OF QUINTANA ROO AND CAMPECHE...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF AROUND 10 INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER BELIZE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF QUINTANA ROO AND
CAMPECHE...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GUATEMALA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Advisories

#36 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 25, 2010 9:38 am

WTNT44 KNHC 251435
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1000 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2010

THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER LAND AND ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING.
ALTHOUGH RICHARD SHOULD ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 18 HOURS OR SO
THE SYSTEM WILL BE IN A VERY WEAKENED STATE...AND SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR ALONG WITH DRY AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE REGENERATION. RICHARD IS
LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED AND THE MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE
ABOUT 285/7. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD STEER RICHARD OR ITS REMNANTS
ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/1500Z 17.8N 90.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 18.4N 91.1W 25 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 19.5N 92.2W 25 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 27/0000Z 20.7N 93.3W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 27/1200Z 21.8N 94.2W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 28/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Advisories

#37 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 25, 2010 3:38 pm

000
WTNT44 KNHC 252033
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
400 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2010

A SMALL AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER...PROBABLY IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER...
HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BEGINNING TO BECOME DECOUPLED FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION. WHEN RICHARD EMERGES INTO THE GULF...IT
SHOULD BE A VERY WEAK CYCLONE AND THE ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE
REINTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS RICHARD BECOMING A
REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO BUT THIS EVENT COULD VERY WELL OCCUR
SOONER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/8...WHICH IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT
THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. NO BIG CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO
THE FORECAST TRACK. BY TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY RICHARD OR ITS
REMNANTS SHOULD MOVE ON A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD HEADING IN
RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE GUIDANCE MODEL TRACKS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 18.1N 91.2W 30 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 26/0600Z 18.8N 92.3W 25 KT...OVER WATER
24HR VT 26/1800Z 20.0N 93.4W 25 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 27/0600Z 21.2N 94.4W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 27/1800Z 22.0N 95.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Advisories

#38 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 25, 2010 9:42 pm

KNHC 260242
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1000 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2010

RICHARD BARELY REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ONLY A SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER LAND OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. IF NEW CONVECTION DOES NOT DEVELOP
NEAR THE CENTER SOON...RICHARD WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/6...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS RICHARD TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY TUESDAY. A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR...IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR RICHARD TO REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0300Z 18.4N 91.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 19.1N 92.6W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 27/0000Z 20.3N 93.7W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 27/1200Z 21.5N 94.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Advisories

#39 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 26, 2010 9:36 am

The Last Advisory

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1000 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

RICHARD LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IS NOW A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER WATER...THE ENVIRONMENT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PROHIBIT REGENERATION.

THE LOW IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 KT ON THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE. THIS
MOTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON RICHARD. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
REMNANTS OF RICHARD...THE LOW...NOT THE FORECASTER...CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1500Z 20.4N 93.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 21.6N 93.8W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 27/1200Z 23.2N 94.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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