ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

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ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 21, 2010 7:18 am

This is south of CV islands.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201010211211
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2010, DB, O, 2010102112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902010
AL, 90, 2010102012, , BEST, 0, 96N, 185W, 15, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010102018, , BEST, 0, 97N, 195W, 15, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010102100, , BEST, 0, 98N, 205W, 15, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010102106, , BEST, 0, 99N, 215W, 20, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010102112, , BEST, 0, 100N, 225W, 20, 1010, LO
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#2 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 21, 2010 7:22 am

This was the 8 AM TWO:

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. EVEN
THOUGH THIS IS HISTORICALLY NOT A FAVORABLE AREA FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IN LATE OCTOBER...THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.


Image
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#3 Postby KWT » Thu Oct 21, 2010 7:25 am

Talk about coming out of no where!

An interesting looking system, its very rare for a CV system to form at this time of the year, indeed I'd imagine it'd be nearly exceptional. Still it does look to be quite interesting at the moment, I'd personally go for 20% right now.

ps, the ECM eventually develops this in 3-4 days time.
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#4 Postby Cyclone1 » Thu Oct 21, 2010 7:41 am

Suddenly the tropical depression in the Caribbean has lost my interest for this little oddball. Wow. This would make for a fascinating storm.
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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 21, 2010 7:43 am

Image

impressive little system
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#6 Postby abajan » Thu Oct 21, 2010 7:50 am

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looks like it has a pretty decent chance of development but practically 0% chance that it will come all the way across the Atlantic to threaten our region. Too early to call it a fish though because who’s to say the Azores, for instance, won’t be threatened by it at some point?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#7 Postby hurricaneCW » Thu Oct 21, 2010 7:53 am

Forget the track, we know nothing can come across this late in the season. It will be fascinating to see if anything can come out of it though.
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#8 Postby KWT » Thu Oct 21, 2010 8:03 am

It'd certainly be impressive if anything formed, I suspect it has a shot further north where the SST's are only just starting to cool down in any major fashion BUT the upper levels are pretty cold already compared to what they were a few months ago.
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#9 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Oct 21, 2010 8:05 am

Wow...when was the last time there was an invest for an area that far SE in late October?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#10 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 21, 2010 8:08 am

It looks like early September with this invest way out there.
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#11 Postby KWT » Thu Oct 21, 2010 8:38 am

I'm not sure the last time we had a system that far SE in the tropical Atlantic at this time of the year, its certainly on the uncommon side thats for sure!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#12 Postby AJC3 » Thu Oct 21, 2010 8:55 am

abajan wrote:The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looks like it has a pretty decent chance of development but practically 0% chance that it will come all the way across the Atlantic to threaten our region. Too early to call it a fish though because who’s to say the Azores, for instance, won’t be threatened by it at some point?


Moreover, the CVI are a few hours away from being affected by some rain bands/lower end squalls coming in from the SE.
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#13 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 21, 2010 9:05 am

Wouldn't a typical October track extrapolated onto this area send it straight back towards Europe?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#14 Postby clfenwi » Thu Oct 21, 2010 9:26 am

Playing with the hurricane historical tracks for a little bit, there's no storms on record forming within 200 miles of this area after September. Latest I could find in the 65 nm area for September was the last hurricane of 1893 ( track ), which is in the books with a start date of September 26. 1996 Isidore and 1998 Jeanne (which followed Ivan's path that year) had more of the track one would expect for the time of year.
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#15 Postby KWT » Thu Oct 21, 2010 9:41 am

I suspect Crazy a track NW and then eventually to the north perhaps close to the Azores, but early days yet. Probably has a fair shot at coming close to being upgraded.
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#16 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 21, 2010 10:05 am

Shockin' Shary potential?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#17 Postby abajan » Thu Oct 21, 2010 10:17 am

AJC3 wrote:
abajan wrote:The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looks like it has a pretty decent chance of development but practically 0% chance that it will come all the way across the Atlantic to threaten our region. Too early to call it a fish though because who’s to say the Azores, for instance, won’t be threatened by it at some point?


Moreover, the CVI are a few hours away from being affected by some rain bands/lower end squalls coming in from the SE.
I purposely neglected to mention the Cape Verde islands because I figured it would need time to develop into a TS and would have already passed them by the time it did so. Perhaps I’m wrong about that though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#18 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 21, 2010 10:22 am

Image

nice loop
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Re:

#19 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 21, 2010 10:23 am

CrazyC83 wrote:Shockin' Shary potential?


Shockin' Shary sounds cool!!!
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#20 Postby Gustywind » Thu Oct 21, 2010 11:35 am

:eek: :eek: pretty surprising at this time of the season... :double:
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