ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

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#121 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:45 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#122 Postby Florida1118 » Wed Oct 27, 2010 11:47 pm

Who's thinking Shary??
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#123 Postby supercane » Thu Oct 28, 2010 12:04 am

Somewhat shallow convection...
Image

with center on western edge and peak of 30kt winds as suggested by latest ASCAT pass:
Image

and Dvorak of 1.5 by SAB:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
27/2345 UTC 26.9N 40.8W T1.5/1.5 90L
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#124 Postby Florida1118 » Thu Oct 28, 2010 12:46 am

Taking them a long time...
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#125 Postby Florida1118 » Thu Oct 28, 2010 12:47 am

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. RECENT SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW
IS PRODUCING WINDS TO GALE FORCE. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE
IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Image
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#126 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 28, 2010 6:15 am

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Latest - good ol' shear
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#127 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 28, 2010 6:44 am

ABNT20 KNHC 281137
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 28 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOMES LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW IS PRODUCING WINDS TO GALE
FORCE. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A SURFACE
LOW IS FORMING WITHIN A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
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#128 Postby charlesw » Thu Oct 28, 2010 6:47 am

When do you think they will pull the trigger and name this one?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#129 Postby dwsqos2 » Thu Oct 28, 2010 6:47 am

Yes, it is becoming much less organized, and environmental conditions really only worsen from here on out. I suspect we will be without one invest rather soon.

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#130 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 28, 2010 7:36 am

AL, 90, 2010102812, , BEST, 0, 269N, 411W, 35, 1010

down from 40 knots
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#131 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 28, 2010 8:13 am

Code: Select all

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
SHEAR (KT)        22    21    22    27    26    40    53    42    31    15    23    37    45
SHEAR DIR        250   250   268   283   288   304   304   292   299   238   221   226   215


shear expected to remain strong
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#132 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 28, 2010 12:39 pm

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS DISORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS BECOMING
LESS LIKELY DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

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#133 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 28, 2010 1:25 pm

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Shear, oh shear
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#134 Postby Reesie » Thu Oct 28, 2010 4:40 pm

Florida1118 wrote:Who's thinking Shary??


According to Jeff Masters - Dan Brown was

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1675
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#135 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 28, 2010 4:46 pm

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Convection has increased
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#136 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 28, 2010 4:53 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#137 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 28, 2010 5:41 pm

Image

90L making another push for upgrade
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#138 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 28, 2010 6:46 pm

Remains at 30%

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.
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#139 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 28, 2010 7:32 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#140 Postby Florida1118 » Fri Oct 29, 2010 12:49 am

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT TODAY...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.


Image


It looks like the end....
Last edited by Florida1118 on Fri Oct 29, 2010 1:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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