ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

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Migle
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#61 Postby Migle » Sun Oct 24, 2010 10:08 pm

Is 90L the same area that is in the TWO or is that something else?

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 24 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
RICHARD...LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF BELIZE ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH OF
BELIZE CITY.

1. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE
IS STILL A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#62 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 25, 2010 7:00 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 25 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 155 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE UPPER-LEVELS WINDS COULD BECOME A
LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

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#63 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 25, 2010 8:37 am

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#64 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 25, 2010 9:32 am

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#65 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 25, 2010 10:26 am

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#66 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 25, 2010 11:07 am

Image

nice vorticity
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#67 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 25, 2010 12:57 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON OCT 25 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 150
MILES SOUTH OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1020 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVELS WINDS COULD BECOME A
LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

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#68 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 25, 2010 1:00 pm

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#69 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 25, 2010 1:36 pm

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latest
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#70 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 25, 2010 1:37 pm

AL, 90, 2010102518, , BEST, 0, 243N, 398W, 30, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest
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#71 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 25, 2010 2:24 pm

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#72 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 25, 2010 2:26 pm

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Could we see Subtropical Shary? Lets see
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#73 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Oct 25, 2010 2:50 pm

Looks eminent to me Sandy....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#74 Postby somethingfunny » Mon Oct 25, 2010 5:22 pm

Yeah I agree - I was checking into this thread wondering why people were still posting on a dead Invest.... but I agree, this looks very good for a 10% Lemon Blob. Subtropical formation doesn't look too implausible here.
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#75 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Mon Oct 25, 2010 5:49 pm

^^^
Boy no kiddin, 10% doesn't do that area any justice whatsoever. I can't believe the comeback 90L made. Vorticity is quite strong and have to be liking the La Nina STS pattern we may have develop now we're heading into November. What we need to see is the transitions like 2005 which lead to Epsilon, no question my favorite storm to form in that region of the ATL. The two storms are in nearly the same position on the map as well btw. Shear tendency suggests that 90L is encased along powerful 200 MB Vorticity. I know alot of members here know very well what that can mean. Shear currently appears to be slack though and the last TWO speaks of increasingly favorable conditions so I have to think the next TWO will show a percentage increase, given what I have noted.

How much though? No clue. Thinking 20% The NHC likes to slow play these things but the NHC is in no particular rush to move on this because it will probably remain stationary and meander intensifying and fizzling, overall organizing for perhaps 36 hours before it will get it's act together.


I await eagerly the wording of the next TWO...won't have to wait long...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#76 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 25, 2010 6:43 pm

Up to 20%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 25 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION RICHARD...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1075 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY...BUT
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

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#77 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Mon Oct 25, 2010 9:10 pm

I would expect Code Orange at 2. This is looking so good, and shear is already very conducive for development and you can see it. It even looks like convection is wrapping around so we should see a nice STS-TS transition here if we get Shary, which will help ACE.

That doesn't even count potential Tomas in the caribbean? Man....if we are at Tomas at least by this month's end i'm going to be wondering if we really could see the greek alphabet....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#78 Postby Ad Novoxium » Mon Oct 25, 2010 9:28 pm

It's possible, but keep in mind that in 1995 (a La Nina year), we had Tanya around this time, and while there was plenty of time that year to churn out Van, it never happened. Here, however, the momentum is there. (To elaborate, 1995 was a fast-forming season: by the time this year when we got to Danielle and Earl, 1995 was at Jerry and Karen.)
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#79 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 25, 2010 10:02 pm

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Image

Latest ... very strong vorticity
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#80 Postby Florida1118 » Mon Oct 25, 2010 10:06 pm

Subtropical seems pretty likely for 20%
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