ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

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Macrocane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#81 Postby Macrocane » Mon Oct 25, 2010 10:16 pm

If this one becomes Shary, the possible Caribbean system next week would be Tomas and 2010 would be the 3rd most active season in terms of number of tropical/subtropical storms tied with 1995 and 1887.
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Weatherfreak000

#82 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Mon Oct 25, 2010 11:35 pm

Based on latest vorticity and sat appearance 30% may be a tad conservative, although I feel that is the direction they will take at 2. Potentially with 50% going into tomorrow. I'm telling you this thing is really coming together impressive. I like to jump on board when the conditions are conducive and you can truly see a storm take advantage of that for the first time.


Still think this makes the transition from STS to TS or even hurricane who knows.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#83 Postby Florida1118 » Tue Oct 26, 2010 12:53 am

Weatherfreak000 wrote:Based on latest vorticity and sat appearance 30% may be a tad conservative, although I feel that is the direction they will take at 2.

Well look who called it...

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTERED ABOUT 1150 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND A NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL
LOW. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY...BUT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
MPH.

Image
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#84 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 26, 2010 6:15 am

AL, 90, 2010102606, , BEST, 0, 258N, 404W, 35, 1008, LO

gale intensity
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#85 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 26, 2010 6:59 am

ABNT20 KNHC 261133
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION RICHARD...LOCATED ABOUT 135 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
CAMPECHE MEXICO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTERED ABOUT 1150 MILES WEST-
NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND A NEARBY
UPPER-LEVEL LOW. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...BUT ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD
AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN



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#86 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 26, 2010 10:42 am

Image

Nice circulation but it needs more organized convection
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#87 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 26, 2010 10:55 am

Image

Latest
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#88 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 26, 2010 11:11 am

AL, 90, 2010102612, , BEST, 0, 255N, 404W, 35, 1007, LO

pressure down 1 mb
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#89 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 26, 2010 12:48 pm

Down to 20%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
RICHARD...WHICH HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 325 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPICO
MEXICO.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTERED ABOUT 1150 MILES NORTHWEST OF
THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND A NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 MPH OR LESS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
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#90 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 26, 2010 1:36 pm

Image

Latest
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#91 Postby Cyclone1 » Tue Oct 26, 2010 2:31 pm

I completely can't believe this still exists and actually looks kinda decent.
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#92 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 26, 2010 4:55 pm

Image

Vorticity has increased
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#93 Postby KWT » Tue Oct 26, 2010 4:58 pm

20% looks good at the moment given the Vort still with this but pretty evident this one isn't likely to develop now...IMO may well have been close to being a depression at one point though...
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#94 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 26, 2010 6:04 pm

Image

Latest
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#95 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 26, 2010 6:54 pm

Down to 10%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS REMAIN DISORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 MPH OR LESS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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#96 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 26, 2010 7:36 pm

AL, 90, 2010102700, , BEST, 0, 256N, 413W, 30, 1007, LO

down to 30 knots
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#97 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 27, 2010 6:04 am

27/0545 UTC 25.8N 40.6W ST1.5 90L
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#98 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 27, 2010 8:28 am

AL, 90, 2010102712, , BEST, 0, 265N, 409W, 30, 1007, LO

no change
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#99 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 27, 2010 8:29 am

Image

Image

Latest
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#100 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 27, 2010 8:34 am

Image

vorticity remains very strong
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