SWIO: Tropical Depression 01R (91S)

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Chacor
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#21 Postby Chacor » Wed Oct 27, 2010 7:47 am

Still a TD. Might not end up with a named storm after all...

WTIO30 FMEE 271233


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/1/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1

2.A POSITION 2010/10/27 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.6S / 84.9E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SO: 170 NO: 170

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 720 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/10/28 00 UTC: 13.2S/83.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2010/10/28 12 UTC: 14.1S/81.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2010/10/29 00 UTC: 14.9S/79.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2010/10/29 12 UTC: 15.4S/77.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
60H: 2010/10/30 00 UTC: 15.5S/76.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
72H: 2010/10/30 12 UTC: 15.1S/74.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0+, CI=2.5

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF TD1 ... JUST LIKE PREVIOUS
DAY
, CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AROUND 0800-0900Z AND SINCE 1000Z, A NEW
CONVECTIVE BURST HAS OCCURED NORTHWEST OF THE STILL PARTLY EXPOSED
LLCC.
AROUND 09Z, BOTH AGENCIES (SAB AND FMEE) LOWERED TNUM AT 2.0 BUT KEPT
A
CI AT 2.5 ... S
TILL SUPPORTING AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT.

AT 09Z, BUOY 53549 REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1002 HPA ABOUT 60 NM TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC.

ACCORDING LARGE SCALE FIELDS FROM NWP MODELS, SYSTEM SHOULD BE VERY
NEAR
OR UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS ... WITH
CONSEQUENTLY
WEAKER SHEAR AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. PROBLEM IS THAT
DURING
THE SAME PERIOD, SYSTEM WILL BE OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER THAN
CURRENTLY
(JUST BE
LOW 26C) ...PRESENT FORECAST INTENSITY IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT VERY LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTAIN BUT
MAINTAINS TS INTENSITY A LITTLE LONGER DUE TO BETTER UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS ... THIS IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH LATEST CHIP MODEL
OUTPUT.

NO MAJOR CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS GUIDANCE REMAIN IN FAIRLY
GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK BETWEEN
SOUTHWESTWARDS
AND WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS AS RIDGE IS BULDING SOUTHWARDS. ALL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT AFTER DAY 3, THE TRACK SHOULD CURVE WESTWARDS TO
WESTNORTHWESTWARDS. BY TH
AT TIME, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ON A WEAKENING TREND OVER COOL WATERS
AND
WITH STRONGER EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.=
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HURAKAN
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#22 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:58 am

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supercane
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#23 Postby supercane » Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:26 pm

WTXS31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 12.7S 83.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 83.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 13.5S 82.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 14.4S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 15.1S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 15.5S 76.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 15.3S 72.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 14.4S 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 83.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES AN OVERALL WEAKENING IN THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH TC 01S. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE HAVE INDICATED A
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND CURRENTLY SUPPORT A 25 TO
35 KNOT SYSTEM. A 271621Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM AND 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT (DECREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR) IMPROVES
TO THE SOUTH. THE TRACK WILL FLATTEN TO THE WEST ONCE A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES DOWNSTREAM ALLOWING THE STEERING RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF 15S WILL ULTIMATELY
MODERATE INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AND LEAD TO
DISSIPATION OF TC 01S AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 96.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 280900Z AND 282100Z.//


WTIO30 FMEE 280042 CCA
*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/1/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1
2.A POSITION 2010/10/28 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.4S / 83.1E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: SE: 120 SO: NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/10/28 12 UTC: 14.4S/81.1E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2010/10/29 00 UTC: 15.0S/78.7E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2010/10/29 12 UTC: 15.4S/76.3E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2010/10/30 00 UTC: 15.3S/74.8E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2010/10/30 12 UTC: 15.3S/73.3E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2010/10/31 00 UTC: 14.9S/71.5E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0, CI=2.0
SYSTEM RELOCATED NEAR 13.1S/83.9E AT 1800Z (CF. AQUA AT 1931Z).
LAST ANIMATED INFRARED PICTURES DEPICTS A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION OVER
THE SYSTEM CENTER.
ACCORDING TO THE LAST AVALAIBLE NWP MODELS, SYSTEM NR1 IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE UNDER THE AXIS OF THE UPER LEVEL RIDGE AT 12 TAU. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) SHOULD WEAKEN AND THE SYSTEM COULD REINTENSIFY DURING 24
HOURS DESPITE OF THE WEAK OCEAN HEAT CONTAINT (SST UNDER 26oC).
BEYOND 36 TAU VWS IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN
AGAIN.
NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FORECASTED MOVEMENT
WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD DURING 48 HOURS, AND WEST-NORTH-WESTWARD BEYOND,
NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE.
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