SWIO: Tropical Depression 01R (91S)

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SWIO: Tropical Depression 01R (91S)

#1 Postby Chacor » Mon Oct 25, 2010 4:33 am

Second invest of the year, this one near 9S 86E.

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Last edited by Chacor on Mon Oct 25, 2010 7:41 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: SWIO: INVEST 91S

#2 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Mon Oct 25, 2010 5:03 am

Seems rather organized.

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#3 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Oct 25, 2010 11:57 am

Is it possible to chance the name of this topic to "SW Indian Ocean - Tropical Disturbance 01"?
Meteo France has it listed as that.
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Re: SWIO: INVEST 91S

#4 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 25, 2010 12:13 pm

ZCZC 319
WTIO30 FMEE 251241
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/1/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1
2.A POSITION 2010/10/25 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.0S / 86.2E
(TEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/10/26 00 UTC: 10.4S/86.0E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2010/10/26 12 UTC: 11.0S/85.8E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2010/10/27 00 UTC: 11.6S/85.0E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2010/10/27 12 UTC: 12.3S/83.5E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2010/10/28 00 UTC: 13.1S/81.5E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2010/10/28 12 UTC: 13.7S/79.5E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 CI=2.0
THE SYSTEM FOLLOWED SINCE TWO DAYS BEGAN TO ORGANIZE. IT STILL UNDERGOES
A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS WELL EXPOSED. DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF THE SYSTEM. THE MOVEMENT IS SOUTHWESTWARDS AT 9 KT. THE
EQUATORWARDS LOW LEVEL
INFLOW IS WORSE THAT YESTERDAY, BUT IS GOOD POLARWARDS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN PROGRESSIVELY UP TO 24 HOURS, AS THE SYSTEM
COMES NEARER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED IN THE SOUTH. FOR THE
NEXT THREE DAYS, S
ST REMAIN AT ABOUT 27oC AND BEYOND BECOME COOLER. ACCORDING WITH THIS
CONDITIONS, AVAILABLE NWP MODELS FORECAST A SLOW INTENSIFICATION DURING
THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
NNNN


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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 25, 2010 12:15 pm

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#6 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 25, 2010 12:18 pm

25/1430 UTC 10.0S 86.1E T1.5/1.5 91S -- Southwest Indian

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Re: SWIO: INVEST 91S

#7 Postby P.K. » Mon Oct 25, 2010 3:00 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 251913


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/1/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1

2.A POSITION 2010/10/25 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.3S / 86.4E
(TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST
)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 50 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/10/26 06 UTC: 11.0S/86.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2010/10/26 18 UTC: 11.8S/85.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2010/10/27 06 UTC: 12.6S/84.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2010/10/27 18 UTC: 13.3S/82.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
60H: 2010/10/28 06 UTC: 14.0S/80.3E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
72H: 2010/10/28 18 UTC: 14.1S/78.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 CI=2.0
THE SYSTEM FOLLOWED SINCE TWO DAYS BEGAN TO ORGANIZE. IT STILL UNDERGOES
A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS WELL EXPOSED. DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF THE SYSTEM. THE MOTION IS SOUTHWARDS AT 6 KT. THE EQUATORWARD LOW
LEVEL INFLOW
IS WORSE THAT YESTERDAY, BUT REMAINS GOOD POLEWARD. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN PROGRESSIVELY UP TO 24 HOURS, AS THE SYSTEM
COMES NEARER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED IN THE SOUTH. FOR THE
NEXT THREE DAYS, SST R
EMAIN AT ABOUT 27oC AND BEYOND BECOME COOLER. ACCORDING WITH THIS
CONDITIONS, AVAILABLE NWP MODELS FORECAST A SLOW INTENSIFICATION DURING
THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
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#8 Postby Chacor » Mon Oct 25, 2010 7:43 pm

Upgraded to a TD from a TDist. MF are at T2.5.
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Re: SWIO: Tropical Depression 01R (91S)

#9 Postby Macrocane » Mon Oct 25, 2010 7:59 pm

An early start of the SW Indian season, looks pretty well organized let's see if it become tropical storm Abele.
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#10 Postby supercane » Mon Oct 25, 2010 8:39 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 260030
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/1/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1
2.A POSITION 2010/10/26 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.2S / 86.1E
(TEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 50 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 170 NO: 150
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/10/26 12 UTC: 10.9S/85.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2010/10/27 00 UTC: 11.5S/84.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2010/10/27 12 UTC: 12.3S/83.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2010/10/28 00 UTC: 12.9S/81.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
60H: 2010/10/28 12 UTC: 13.7S/79.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
72H: 2010/10/29 00 UTC: 14.2S/77.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5- CI=2.5-
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR DECREASES SLIGHTLY AND DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS
IMPROVE IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OVER THE RECENT PAS HOURS.
LAST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOW INTENSIFICATION, SYSTEM HAS THEREFORE
PROBABLY REACHED TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP ON IMPROVING WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS VERTICAL WINDSHEAR DECREASES AND POLEWARD LOW LEVEL
INFLOW INCREASES.
ON AND AFTER 3 DAYS, SYSTEM WOULD TRACK OVER MARGINAL COOL WATER AND IS
THEREFORE EXPECTED TO STOP ITS INTENSIFICATION.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS.
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#11 Postby supercane » Tue Oct 26, 2010 8:43 am

WTIO30 FMEE 261249
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/1/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1
2.A POSITION 2010/10/26 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.9S / 86.4E
(TEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 50 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 180 SE: 040 SO: 090 NO: 140
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 150 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/10/27 00 UTC: 11.6S/86.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
24H: 2010/10/27 12 UTC: 12.2S/84.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
36H: 2010/10/28 00 UTC: 12.9S/83.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2010/10/28 12 UTC: 13.6S/81.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2010/10/29 00 UTC: 14.5S/79.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
72H: 2010/10/29 12 UTC: 14.9S/76.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5, CI=2.5
CONVECTION HAS LESSEN DUE TO THE DIURNAL EFFECT DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
VORTEX WAS TOTALLY EXPOSED.
LAST AVALAIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER.
ASCAT DATA AT 04.07TU SHOWS 30KT WINDS NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC.
SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE AXIS OF THE UPER LEVELS RIDGE, SO THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATE TO WEAK (CF. CIMSS
ANALYSIS).
AVALAIBLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE TRACK
WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE,
DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
SOUTH OF 12S, OCEANIC ENERGETIC POTENTIAL SHOULD BE THE LIMITANT FACTOR
FOR THE INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 36TAU.

Image

WTXS31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/252251Z OCT 10//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 10.9S 86.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 86.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 12.3S 85.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 13.1S 84.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 13.8S 83.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 14.4S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 15.2S 77.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 15.5S 73.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 15.0S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 86.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FIRST SYSTEM OF THE 2011 SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS
RELAXED OVER THE SYSTEM AND HAS ALLOWED FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO BUILD
BACK OVER THE CENTER, ELEVATING DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE
TO A T2.5 OR 35 KNOTS. A 260407Z ASCAT PASS ALSO SUGGESTS THE LLCC
HAS STRENGTHENED TO 35 KNOTS. IN ADDITION, A 261112Z SSMI 37H
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
DISTINCT LLCC. CURRENTLY THE CYCLONE IS VENTING TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH ALSO
APPEARS RESPONSIBLE FOR BOUTS OF ELEVATED VWS. LESS THAN SIX HOURS
AGO THE LLCC HAD BEEN FULLY EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS VWS GRADUALLY EASES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH
DOWNSTREAM. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, THEN
TRANSFER TO ANOTHER STEERING RIDGE FURTHER TO THE WEST AS THE MID-
LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE TROUGH PASSES AROUND TAU 48. VWS IS AGAIN
EXPECTED TO ELEVATE NEAR DAY 4 AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
AND BEGIN TO TAPER NEAR 20S. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF
A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 252251Z OCT 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 252300)MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 9
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z AND 271500Z.//
NNNN


TPXS11 PGTW 261159
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (SW OF SUMATRA)
B. 26/1130Z
C. 11.0S
D. 86.6E
E. SIX/MET7
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN SHEARED 40NM NW
OF LLCC YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. FT BASED ON PT. MET YIELDED 2.0.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
26/0747Z 10.5S 86.4E MMHS
KIENZLE

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Re: SWIO: Tropical Depression 01R (91S)

#12 Postby P.K. » Tue Oct 26, 2010 1:47 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 261845


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/1/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1

2.A POSITION 2010/10/26 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.2S / 86.3E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 50 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 148 NO: 148

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/10/27 06 UTC: 12.1S/85.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2010/10/27 18 UTC: 12.9S/84.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2010/10/28 06 UTC: 13.6S/82.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2010/10/28 18 UTC: 14.3S/80.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
60H: 2010/10/29 06 UTC: 15.0S/78.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
72H: 2010/10/29 18 UTC: 15.3S/76.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5, CI=2.5

CONVECTION HAS TAKEN AGAIN NEAR THE CENTER WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE.
THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO DECELERATE TEMPORARILY TRACKING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS
TOWARDS THE AXIS OF THE UPER LEVELS RIDGE, SO THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATE TO WEAK (CF. CIMSS ANALYSIS).
AVALAIBLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE TRACK
WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
ANTICYCLONE,
DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
SOUTH OF 12S, OCEANIC ENERGETIC POTENTIAL SHOULD BE THE LIMITANT
FACTOR
FOR THE INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 36TAU.=
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#13 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 26, 2010 6:09 pm

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#14 Postby Chacor » Tue Oct 26, 2010 7:49 pm

Remains a 30kt TD at 00z but looking better than ever.
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#15 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 26, 2010 7:52 pm

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 / 991.0mb/ 45.0kt


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#16 Postby supercane » Tue Oct 26, 2010 8:05 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 270046

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/1/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1
2.A POSITION 2010/10/27 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.4S / 85.9E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 50 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 150 NO: 150
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/10/27 12 UTC: 12.3S/84.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
24H: 2010/10/28 00 UTC: 13.1S/83.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
36H: 2010/10/28 12 UTC: 14.0S/81.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2010/10/29 00 UTC: 14.8S/79.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2010/10/29 12 UTC: 15.2S/76.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
72H: 2010/10/30 00 UTC: 15.3S/74.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5, CI=2.5
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONCENTRATED AND STRUCTURED
DURING THE LAST HOURS WITH A CDO AND AN INCURVED BAND 0.4 IN THE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS THE AXIS OF THE UPER LEVELS
RIDGE, SO THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATE TO WEAK
(CF. CIMSS ANALYSIS).
IT SHOULD ACCELERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24H.
AVALAIBLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE TRACK
WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE
, DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
SOUTH OF 12S, OCEANIC ENERGETIC POTENTIAL SHOULD BE THE LIMITANT FACTOR
FOR THE INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 24/36TAU.
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#17 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 26, 2010 10:14 pm

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#18 Postby supercane » Tue Oct 26, 2010 11:00 pm

WTXS31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 11.7S 85.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 85.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 12.7S 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 13.4S 83.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 14.0S 81.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 14.7S 79.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 15.3S 75.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 14.9S 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 14.2S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 85.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 830 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH A MAJORITY OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND CONTINUED VENTING TO
THE WEST AND SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS CURRENTLY LIMITING INTENSIFICATION. TC
01S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-
LEVEL STEERING RIDGE, WHICH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN NEAR TAU 36 DUE TO
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR IS FORECAST
TO REBUILD TO THE WEST AND TC 01S WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD
ALONG 15S. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD, BUT WILL ULTIMATELY BE LIMITED BY DECREASED SST
SOUTH OF 12S AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY TAUS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR WHICH
DRIVES THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD INTO THE RIDGE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING SOME SPREAD IN THE LATER TAUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIMING
OF THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 270000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z AND 280300Z.//

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#19 Postby Chacor » Wed Oct 27, 2010 1:58 am

KNES (SAB), PGTW (JTWC), and FMEE (MF) are all at T2.5, which corresponds to 30kt on MF's Dvorak scale, and thus no upgrade at 06z.
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#20 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 27, 2010 6:24 am

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