ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

Gustywind · #41 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 9:54 am

Much convection this morning until the 15N....

Sanibel · #42 Postby **Sanibel** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 10:20 am

Take a day off and all of a sudden you are missing an outbreak!

I thought something like this might happen. The season is off-kilter because of early cold and abnormal patterns. This hurricane belt system is late.

I like 91L. It's in the right spot. I think it's the season finally putting one out to make up for all the climatology disruption.

(The loops say 91L is well into formation)

Gustywind · #43 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 10:24 am

Sanibel · #44 Postby **Sanibel** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 10:29 am

There's a lot that could happen to 91L still but the current organization makes it look like a no doubter.

That would be something if Belize got another one. This one wouldn't be weak if it did.

#45 Postby **Vortex** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 11:10 am

very impressive...

#46 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 11:21 am

20% development chance within 48 hours seems a bit low. Maybe 60-70%?

Weatherfreak000 · #47 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 11:24 am

^^^
Agreed. Thanks for the updates wxman47. Your analysis has been nothing short of brilliant this time around.

#48 Postby **jconsor** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 11:54 am

Agreed. I cannot fathom why the NHC thinks heavily sheared 90L has more than double the chance of 91L developing in the next 48 hours.

The only thing lacking is a closed surface circulation, but mid-level rotation has become much more pronounced in the past day. Excellent banding and outflow along its path, and very low shear along its path for the next several days.

wxman57 wrote:20% development chance within 48 hours seems a bit low. Maybe 60-70%?

bob rulz · #49 Postby **bob rulz** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 11:54 am

I definitely expect at least an orange tag at 2pm.

#50 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 12:15 pm

The forecasters at the NHC are impressed with this system. I'm guessing that the chances for development are to increase at 2 pm.

#51 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 12:19 pm

very impressive

#52 Postby **northjaxpro** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 12:30 pm

91L is looking rather good today with good outflow. The only question is how much latitude the system can gain in the next few days. This will be the key issue as 91L will interact with the coast of the continent of South America. It is going to take quite some time for 91L to really spin up, especially as it interacts with land the next few days. I don't expect 91L to get designated a named storm until about Tuesday of next week should the system stays intact.

But, an unprecedented system potentially in the making here if it can spin up in the next few days. Quite remarkable to have such a potent invest this far south and east in the Atlantic this late in the season.

#53 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 12:36 pm

Up to 30%

I would have gone up to 50%.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT
850 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

#54 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 12:39 pm

Only 30%... Really? Clearly better chances than 30% with organization trends and a favorable environment.

#55 Postby **northjaxpro** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 12:46 pm

I agree with those that think NHC should be higher in their probabilities, even observing by satellite imagery. 91L at least merits a 50% probability of developing into at least a tropical depression within the next 48 hours.

NHC staying conservative on this system for the moment. I did see that they are planning for Recon to fly out tomorrow to investigate.

#56 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 12:49 pm

It looks like September. Impressive graphic for late October having these three areas of interest,all three east of 60W.

#57 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 12:50 pm

Definitely not an Oct 28 look. What a season this has been.

#58 Postby **northjaxpro** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 12:59 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:Definitely not an Oct 28 look. What a season this has been.

Indeed it has been a remarkably active season, the most impressive since 2005.

91L is the most intriguing invest right now. If it can stay intact and not get disrupted badly with land interaction by early next week, 91L has the potential to be a rather potent tropical cyclone in the Caribbean.

Definitely looks more like something we would be seeing in the peak of the season in September right now out there. Amazing!

#59 Postby **bvigal** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 1:05 pm

To heck with the stupid percentage system. I see what I see on satellite. IF it develops (moving 18kt) it will be over a HUMAN's head in 3 days.

#60 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 1:08 pm

Latest loop

ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

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