ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

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ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 27, 2010 1:11 pm

This is ESE of the Windwards.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al912010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201010271916
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2010, DB, O, 2010102718, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912010
AL, 91, 2010102618, , BEST, 0, 50N, 370W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010102700, , BEST, 0, 53N, 385W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010102706, , BEST, 0, 55N, 400W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010102712, , BEST, 0, 58N, 415W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010102718, , BEST, 0, 60N, 430W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

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#2 Postby Cyclone1 » Wed Oct 27, 2010 1:14 pm

Oh wow, I actually caught an INVEST early. o_O

That's unlike me. :P
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 27, 2010 1:36 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED OCT 27 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM
HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TODAY AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
COULD BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Discussion

#4 Postby Ptarmigan » Wed Oct 27, 2010 1:36 pm

Lot of new invests today.
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#5 Postby Cyclone1 » Wed Oct 27, 2010 1:45 pm

Come oooooon latitude record!
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#6 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 27, 2010 1:48 pm

Image

nice vorticity but very low latitude
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#7 Postby Gustywind » Wed Oct 27, 2010 2:35 pm

Image
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#8 Postby Gustywind » Wed Oct 27, 2010 2:38 pm

Image
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Discussion

#9 Postby wxman57 » Wed Oct 27, 2010 3:49 pm

Development potential will come in 6-7 days if/when it moves off the coast of South America north of Venezuela. This is the feature that the models have been developing south of the DR next Tue/Wed.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Discussion

#10 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Oct 27, 2010 4:22 pm

wxman57 wrote:Development potential will come in 6-7 days if/when it moves off the coast of South America north of Venezuela. This is the feature that the models have been developing south of the DR next Tue/Wed.


That would be the best bet. However, the 12z Euro shows this invest developing in 48 hours before reaching the Caribbean. Possible...

Image
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Discussion

#11 Postby Florida1118 » Wed Oct 27, 2010 5:13 pm

Well one of the 3 has to develop...most likely being this one. I think this will be the ACE push we need to get hyper.
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#12 Postby Ntxw » Wed Oct 27, 2010 5:14 pm

I'm putting my bet on this invest having the most potential compared to the others, especially if the energy can skirt along the northern SA coast.
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#13 Postby abajan » Wed Oct 27, 2010 5:18 pm

We could use whatever rain 91L gives us. Although October started off very wet, it has been quite dry for the past three weeks.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Discussion

#14 Postby wxman57 » Wed Oct 27, 2010 5:28 pm

Florida1118 wrote:Well one of the 3 has to develop...most likely being this one. I think this will be the ACE push we need to get hyper.


I'd vote 92L as having the best shot at developing, maybe as high as 60-70%. This one maybe 40% in 6-7 days.
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#15 Postby Gustywind » Wed Oct 27, 2010 5:32 pm

Image
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Discussion

#16 Postby Florida1118 » Wed Oct 27, 2010 5:35 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Florida1118 wrote:Well one of the 3 has to develop...most likely being this one. I think this will be the ACE push we need to get hyper.


I'd vote 92L as having the best shot at developing, maybe as high as 60-70%. This one maybe 40% in 6-7 days.

They both have all the support they need so time will tell. But 3 Invests at a time seems more like Sept. than Very late Oct no doubt. We should have a poll for which Invest is to develop first...But anyway just look at this close up from earlier. Definitely a player.

Image
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#17 Postby KWT » Wed Oct 27, 2010 6:04 pm

Not a bad presentation but so very far south and land is coming so its probably not going to have time to get going before the SW Caribbean.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Discussion

#18 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 27, 2010 6:49 pm

Up to 20%

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

Who would have thought that by late October there would be three circles east of 60W and one of them east of the islands? My answer is not possible,but here we are :)

Image
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Discussion

#19 Postby Florida1118 » Wed Oct 27, 2010 7:00 pm

cycloneye wrote:Who would have thought that by late October there would be three circles east of 60W and one of them east of the islands? My answer is not possible,but here we are :)


And at that, 3 good looking Invests with all of their chances seeming to rise.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Discussion

#20 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 27, 2010 8:26 pm

AL, 91, 2010102800, , BEST, 0, 60N, 447W, 25, 1008, DB
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