ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Macrocane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4197
Age: 28
Joined: Sun May 24, 2009 5:35 pm
Location: El Salvador

Re: ATL : TOMAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#1781 Postby Macrocane » Fri Nov 05, 2010 10:48 pm

By the way, very strong convection is over northern Haiti at this moment, the threat is still not over.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 14090
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: ATL : TOMAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#1782 Postby Ntxw » Fri Nov 05, 2010 11:35 pm

cpdaman wrote:looks like tomas death and extratropical transition have been exaggerated.

he looks pretty darn good tonite i.e back to vertically stacked

reminds me of wilma in the sense of entering the right front quadrant of the jet....i.e high shear but positioning and speed and looks to be intensifying


It's not exaggerated. He's become a part of the cold front while racing east northeast. Notice the band of clouds all the way north. A true tropical system that is strengthening is usually a single entity. He's not much different than a cutoff low at the end of a cold front sweeping through the states producing lots of rain and wind (severe storms). The only thing is he's enhanced by the motion of the trough which could create high winds. Add a 20-30mph gusts from the front itself to what he already is and that's what you get.

Image
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4449
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL : TOMAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#1783 Postby ozonepete » Fri Nov 05, 2010 11:45 pm

:uarrow: Exactly. Tomas is attached to that front now. It will not get "unattached." But still could be a very impressive extra-tropical storm.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthDadeFish
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2582
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
Location: Miami, FL /Albany, NY

#1784 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sat Nov 06, 2010 1:45 am

You don't get convection as strong as Tomas' without being truly tropical. He definitely has not transitioned yet.
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12099
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#1785 Postby Gustywind » Sat Nov 06, 2010 5:33 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12099
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#1786 Postby Gustywind » Sat Nov 06, 2010 5:37 am

000
WTNT31 KNHC 060848
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 AM EDT SAT NOV 06 2010

...TOMAS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...CENTER PASSING OVER THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 71.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR HAITI HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* HAITI
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.3 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THE CENTER OF TOMAS WILL GRADUALLY BE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND PUERTO RICO. AN ADDITIONAL
2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WHICH COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING THIS MORNING IN
PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
WINDS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD
DIMINISH LATER TODAY. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
0 likes   

User avatar
JTE50
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 336
Age: 59
Joined: Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:48 am
Location: Pensacola
Contact:

Re: ATL : TOMAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#1787 Postby JTE50 » Sat Nov 06, 2010 5:39 am

We had heavy rain here all night long in Port-Au_Prince. I'm a bit concerned about the flooding situation now. The sun will be up in a few hours so I'll get a better read on the situation.
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12099
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re: ATL : TOMAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#1788 Postby Gustywind » Sat Nov 06, 2010 5:44 am

JTE50 wrote:We had heavy rain here all night long in Port-Au_Prince. I'm a bit concerned about the flooding situation now. The sun will be up in a few hours so I'll get a better read on the situation.

Glad to hear you :) ! Be safe and dry my friend :D Thanks to keep us informed as possible we appreciate!
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12099
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#1789 Postby Gustywind » Sat Nov 06, 2010 5:47 am

Looks like PR is experiencing nice feeder band from Tomas. Be safe and dry Cycloneye :) !
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12099
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#1790 Postby Gustywind » Sat Nov 06, 2010 5:50 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 30839
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#1791 Postby KWT » Sat Nov 06, 2010 6:00 am

Still got a good amount of convection with it though the front is on top of it now so I can't imagine it'll be too long into the future before it goes ET.

Still got an impressive feeder band and deep convection still...
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46080
Age: 30
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

#1792 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 06, 2010 6:01 am

Image

Latest
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46080
Age: 30
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

#1793 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 06, 2010 6:08 am

Image

pretty impressive microwave image
0 likes   

User avatar
Macrocane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4197
Age: 28
Joined: Sun May 24, 2009 5:35 pm
Location: El Salvador

Re: ATL : TOMAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1794 Postby Macrocane » Sat Nov 06, 2010 6:28 am

Still pretty impressive but conditions look better for Hispaniola, Bahamas, Puerto Rico and Lesser Antilles are still experiencing rain though.
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 30839
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#1795 Postby KWT » Sat Nov 06, 2010 6:30 am

Yeah that microwave imagery still shows this is a seperate system, still got the western half of the eyewall in tact as well which is more then I was expecting actually!
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46080
Age: 30
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: ATL : TOMAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1796 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 06, 2010 6:53 am

Image

Latest
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46080
Age: 30
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

#1797 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 06, 2010 6:58 am

Image

visible
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 17385
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL : TOMAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1798 Postby wxman57 » Sat Nov 06, 2010 7:13 am

Recon found no more than 50 kt surface winds in Tomas.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46080
Age: 30
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

#1799 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 06, 2010 7:22 am

Image

Latest
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46080
Age: 30
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

#1800 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 06, 2010 7:51 am

Image

moving away from land
0 likes   


Return to “2010”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests