ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[wxman57]

A ship NE of the center is reporting 35kt winds. No obs to its south, but I suspect it may already be a TS. I do not understand the 30% chance of development.

[cycloneye]

A ship NE of the center is reporting 35kt winds. No obs to its south, but I suspect it may already be a TS. I do not understand the 30% chance of development.

I would go with 80% at 8 PM.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, that ship report is very significant. 91L is looking more and more impressive by the hour.

I think NHC should definitely increase the probabilities in the 60-80 percent range on their 8 p.m. TWO. Based on satellite imagery, it sure looks to be at least a TD right now. Plus, the system seems to be gaining some latitude, another plus for 91L to help it organize heading into the weekend.

Also, Recon is tentatively scheduled to fly out to 91L during the day tomorrow.

[Gustywind]

[Blown Away]

TAFB drops 91L's low in 72 hours! Maybe they see something that will inhibit development? 91L sure does look more promising than 30% rate now!

[HurricaneBelle]

I'm not sure I see why everyone gets so worked up over these percentages NHC gives in their TWOs. It's either going to develop or it isn't, and whatever percentage they assign will have no impact on the actual development of the system. These percentages are (mostly) purely subjective and dependent on who happens to be on shift (recall the landfalling Louisiana invest that went from 0 to 60 faster than a Maserati).

[northjaxpro]

TAFB drops 91L's low in 72 hours! Maybe they see something that will inhibit development? 91L sure does look more promising than 30% rate now!

Well, it doesn't totally drop 91L in that TAFB analysis. They kept it as a tropical wave in 72 hours moving through the Eastern Caribbean. TAFB doesn't develop 91L most likely in this analysis due to land interaction with SA. However, based on the obvious trends we are seeing currently with 91L, look for this analysis to possibly change.

[northjaxpro]

I'm not sure I see why everyone gets so worked up over these percentages NHC gives in their TWOs. It's either going to develop or it isn't, and whatever percentage they assign will have no impact on the actual development of the system. These percentages are (mostly) purely subjective and dependent on who happens to be on shift (recall the landfalling Louisiana invest that went from 0 to 60 faster than a Maserati).

You are right. The percentage NHC gives are purely subjective. I personally don't mind the fact NHC does it. Usually, the percentages they give out are always most times on the generally conservative side, and I understand NHC's rationale about that.

[cycloneye]

What about issuing a special tropical weather outlook before 8 PM due to the proximity from the islands? Last night NHC made a STWO for 90L.

[TheBurn]

[tropicana]

Luis, do you know where the Recon. Aircraft is tentatavily taking off from tomorrow? Is it in French Guiana?

-justin-

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Gustywind]

What about issuing a special tropical weather outlook before 8 PM due to the proximity from the islands? Last night NHC made a STWO for 90L.

That seems reasonnable Luis ! I wonder that too... especially when Meteo-France Guadeloupe is in strike since 2 days and provide us one or sometimes two weather forecasts in spite of the daily 3 per day. Let's hope that 91L will not bring anything else than eventual rain or isolated tstorms due to its proximity to the islands... wait and see but looking very healthy this afternoon.

[cycloneye]

Luis, do you know where the Recon. Aircraft is tentatavily taking off from tomorrow? Is it in French Guiana?

-justin-

I know that in past years that systems in the area have been investigated,they have started missions from Barbados,but mostly from ST Croix. I dont know about French Guiana,but maybe they fly from there.

[KWT]

The NHC have behind the gradient with several storms lately taking too long to get upgrade them, wouldn't shock me if that occurs with this one due to the uncertainty of land interaction. I'd go with 70% right now but as Wxman57 said the fact is it probably has TS winds already.

[plasticup]

Wow, he's a big fella. Very impressive satellite presentation.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[latitude_20]

Have to agree, the satellite presentation and wind readings sure make this look like it's already at least a very strong TD. Vorticity and convergence have intensified as well.

[HURAKAN]

one of the largest tropical waves I have ever seen

[latitude_20]

Ship at 10N 48W, north of where NHC has the center, is reporting 1007mb.