ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#1761 Postby mascpa » Fri Nov 05, 2010 3:52 pm

Cold front moved through yesterday afternoon / last night. A wonderful 60 degrees this morning. Lows forecast in the 40's tonight. Bye bye Tomas. Can't see much developing the rest of the season, IMHO.
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#1762 Postby cpdaman » Fri Nov 05, 2010 4:00 pm

wxman as another poster alluded to ......do you see thomas /his moisture having any effect on the east coast trough in the next couple days that models may not be pickin up on well/yet.
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#1763 Postby wxman57 » Fri Nov 05, 2010 5:26 pm

cpdaman wrote:wxman as another poster alluded to ......do you see Tomas /his moisture having any effect on the east coast trough in the next couple days that models may not be pickin up on well/yet.


Now it's looking like the cold front will blast off the east coast so fast that any moisture from Tomas won't make it there.
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#1764 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 05, 2010 5:35 pm

This remark from last VDM tells it all about Tomas weakening.

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SONDE INDICATES CTR NOT VERTICALLY STACKED
LARGE LGT AND VAR CTR
CONVECTION ALSO SKEWING WINDFIELD


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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#1765 Postby wxman57 » Fri Nov 05, 2010 5:41 pm

cycloneye wrote:This remark from last VDM tells it all about Tomas weakening.

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SONDE INDICATES CTR NOT VERTICALLY STACKED
LARGE LGT AND VAR CTR
CONVECTION ALSO SKEWING WINDFIELD




It's not vertically stacked because it's merging with the cold front now. That's why I would not go for strengthening to 80 kts overnight and Tomas staying a hurricane for 48 more hours.
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#1766 Postby Gustywind » Fri Nov 05, 2010 6:18 pm

Haiti under Tomas: first images
franceantilles.fr 05.11.2010
:rarrow: http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... -91263.php

Taken by amateurs or humanitarian, images of Haiti under Tomas showers are circulating since a few hours or a few minutes on social networks.
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#1767 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 05, 2010 6:25 pm

Latest News from Haiti

http://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-1594- ... our-5.html

National Road # 4 blocked from Ganthier to Fond Parisien

At Aux Cotaux (south coast), several dozen families have had to abandon their homes flooded or destroyed.

In Jacmel, a woman was injured in the partial collapse of his house during the fall of a tree.

Two people are missing in Leogane, which is flooded since this morning.

River Momance (Leogane) is in flood and threatens a gabion wall intended to prevent water from flooding the city. Part of this protective wall was partially destroyed by the river, causing widespread concern among inhabitants.

At Roseau and Irois (Southwest), many houses had their roofs swept away by strong winds.

The head of state called on inhabitants of Cité l'Éternel, Cité de Dieu and Cite Lumière, which are currently under the threat of the hurricane, to evacuate the area while it is still time.

In Grande-Anse many plantations were destroyed.

At Camp-Perrin, the river "Ravine du Sud" invaded the lower of the city.

Yvon (faithful of HaitiLibre) tells us that at 4:20 pm, it fell a lot of rain in Grand Goave. Traffic was interrupted at Carrefour Fauché. He tells us that the sea is not rising much, only in the sector of Tauzin, but the water begins to gradually withdraw. The damage is mainly due to much rain. (thank you Yvon).
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#1768 Postby Gustywind » Fri Nov 05, 2010 6:27 pm

Tomas: Several dead in Haiti but less damage than feared
franceantilles.fr 05.11.2010
:rarrow: http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... -91245.php

At least three people died and four were wounded in the country, according to a provisional balance sheet presented by the civil protection. Authorities consider however that Port - au Prince seems to have avoided the worst.

A person drowned in the night of Thursday to Friday while attempting to cross a river in the region of Grande-Anse, South-West of the capital Port - au Prince and floods were reported in the city of les Cayes, on the South coast, announced Alta Jean-Baptiste, Director of emergency preparedness.

At Port - au-Prince, where the earthquake of January has been more than 250,000 deaths and 1.3 million homeless, refugees spent the night under the showers under precarious shelters and canvas camps.

Thursday, President René Préval intervened on national radio waves to invite his compatriots take precautions and follow instructions for evacuation to escape the gusts of wind, the surf and torrential rains.

"Protect your life", has launched the head of the State of a country brought to its knees by the earthquake of January and who knows a new scourge since a few weeks - a cholera epidemic.

CLOSED SCHOOLS

In an opinion published Friday before dawn, cyclonic eve of Miami (NHC) American Centre predicts a strengthening of Tomas within next 24 hours before a weakening within four days.

"Tomas became a hurricane." "The most serious threat this tropical cyclone should continue to weigh are heavy rainfall may cause sudden floods and of dangerous landslides on a portion of Haiti and Dominican Republic within 48 hours of future" prevents the NHC.

Friday 11 h 00 (time of Martinique), Tomas headed west of Haiti, on a North-East axis, and was located about 230 km from Port - au-Prince, with sustained 140 km/h winds.

It did not state major destruction. "So far, has derived rather well", said Leonard Doyle, spokesperson of the International Organization for Migration (IOM). "Our main concerns relate to people living on the flanks of the mountain exposed to the wind gusts and sudden flood and landslide risk", he added.

All island schools are closed from Thursday precautionary. The camps of displaced residents spent one night restless while it was raining at paid. Each camp is managed by a Committee to maintain order and to alleviate the plight of vulnerable.

"We transfer the elderly and families with young children in Red Cross shelters", says Yves-Marie Sopin in a camp with five thousands of people in the gardens of the Prime Minister's Office.

"OUR FATE IS IN THE HANDS OF GOD"

Aisles of the camp, called "Acra 2" and installed on a steep hill slopes was rendered impassable by a slippery mud, reflects a head of the camp, Wilson Almoza.
Some residents went to get to the shelter with friends or relatives in less vulnerable structures but the majority of them within the tent or shelter formed then plastic sheeting that falls the rain.

"We have taken precautions but our fate is in the hands of God!", says Ave Lise Mesila curled his tent white sheet.
In the company of two other women and five grandchildren, she sat in the quasi-obscurité in this small smoky tent planted in the midst of Acra Juvenat area.
United Nations dread passing Tomas aggravate cholera epidemic which, according to an official assessment of the Government has already been 442 deaths and contaminated more than 6,700 people.

On the US base in Guantanamo Bay in Eastern Cuba, 174 foreigners detained in the context of the fight against terrorism have received supplies of water and additional operations in anticipation of the storm. American jailers have no real fear in their regard.
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#1769 Postby Gustywind » Fri Nov 05, 2010 6:40 pm

000
WTNT31 KNHC 052332
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
800 PM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010

...TOMAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND...
HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 73.1W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120
MILES...195 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. STORM SURGE FLOODING IN
EASTERN CUBA AND WESTERN HAITI SHOULD DIMINISH ON SATURDAY. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN HAITI...AND ARE EXPECTED IN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD
SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT
OR SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS
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#1770 Postby Gustywind » Fri Nov 05, 2010 7:32 pm

Image
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#1771 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 05, 2010 7:34 pm

00z Best Track

AL, 21, 2010110600, , BEST, 0, 204N, 731W, 60, 994, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Will be downgraded to Tropical Storm at 11 PM.
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#1772 Postby ozonepete » Fri Nov 05, 2010 7:38 pm

Looks like Tomas may become a really vigorous extratropical system, as some of the models have forecasted. It certainly looks like it from the latest satellite images. That negatively tilting 500mb longwave trough that is so anomalously deep into the southeast has a really powerful right rear entrance region that will probably inject a lot of energy into Tomas. I'm posting the 12Z chart from this morning for the jetsream at 300mb, but you get the idea. If Tomas couples up with that, which appears increasingly likely, it should accelerate northward just off the east coast and move into the Canadian Maritimes as a vigorous low. But it clearly now has no future as a tropical entity.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#1773 Postby wxman57 » Fri Nov 05, 2010 7:52 pm

Yep, Tomas as a TC won't be around long. It's already merging with the front. ET within 24 hrs.
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#1774 Postby tolakram » Fri Nov 05, 2010 8:12 pm

It's a wonder Tomas is still around, look at that front!

Image

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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#1775 Postby AdamFirst » Fri Nov 05, 2010 9:58 pm

Remains a hurricane

HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 PM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010

...TOMAS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 72.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM WNW OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#1776 Postby Sanibel » Fri Nov 05, 2010 10:19 pm

There's a weird concave effect of the outflow going north over eastern Cuba in this loop:



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#1777 Postby JonathanBelles » Fri Nov 05, 2010 10:23 pm

Sanibel wrote:There's a weird concave effect of the outflow going north over eastern Cuba in this loop:



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html



looks like an outflow boundary coming from that southern batch of convection.
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#1778 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 05, 2010 10:25 pm

Puerto Rico was mentioned by the NHC at the 11 PM advisory because of the heavy rains that the feeders going to Tomas are dumping here.There have been many flood advisories issued (Posting them at Caribbean Thread at U.S & Caribbean Weather forum)

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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#1779 Postby cpdaman » Fri Nov 05, 2010 10:28 pm

looks like tomas death and extratropical transition have been exaggerated.

he looks pretty darn good tonite i.e back to vertically stacked

reminds me of wilma in the sense of entering the right front quadrant of the jet....i.e high shear but positioning and speed and looks to be intensifying
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#1780 Postby Macrocane » Fri Nov 05, 2010 10:40 pm

:uarrow: Totally agree, looks pretty tropical to me and still well organized.
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