ATL : TOMAS - Models

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ATL : TOMAS - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 27, 2010 2:28 pm

Code: Select all

KWBC 271919
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1919 UTC WED OCT 27 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912010) 20101027 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101027  1800   101028  0600   101028  1800   101029  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     6.0N  43.0W    6.0N  46.5W    6.4N  50.2W    7.0N  53.7W
BAMD     6.0N  43.0W    5.9N  46.0W    6.1N  49.2W    6.6N  52.4W
BAMM     6.0N  43.0W    5.9N  46.1W    6.1N  49.5W    6.5N  52.8W
LBAR     6.0N  43.0W    6.5N  45.7W    7.5N  48.8W    8.8N  52.0W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          33KTS          40KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          33KTS          40KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101029  1800   101030  1800   101031  1800   101101  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     7.7N  57.0W    8.6N  62.3W    9.3N  66.6W   10.5N  70.4W
BAMD     7.0N  55.6W    7.9N  61.1W    9.0N  66.5W   10.1N  71.9W
BAMM     7.1N  56.1W    7.8N  61.3W    8.7N  65.9W    9.7N  70.3W
LBAR     9.9N  55.0W   12.0N  59.9W   15.6N  62.5W   16.8N  62.6W
SHIP        52KTS          73KTS          86KTS          91KTS
DSHP        52KTS          38KTS          28KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   6.0N LONCUR =  43.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
LATM12 =   5.5N LONM12 =  40.0W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 =  15KT
LATM24 =   5.0N LONM24 =  37.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   70NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 

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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 27, 2010 2:33 pm

The 12z ECMWF develops this close to the north coast of Southamerica.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Models

#3 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 27, 2010 3:18 pm

Pretty good agreement with GFS, Euro, and FIM


Image


Image



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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Models

#4 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Oct 27, 2010 3:28 pm

I know the early guidance shows this hitting South America but looking at the pattern and current movement (WNW), it may come far enough north to stay over water, like the Euro is showing.

If it does, nothing looks to hinder development into a healthy system. SHIPS up to 91 knots.

SHIP 52KTS 73KTS 86KTS 91KTS
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Models

#5 Postby somethingfunny » Wed Oct 27, 2010 3:34 pm

Ivanhater wrote:I know the early guidance shows this hitting South America but looking at the pattern and current movement (WNW), it may come far enough north to stay over water, like the Euro is showing.

If it does, nothing looks to hinder development into a healthy system. SHIPS up to 91 knots.

SHIP 52KTS 73KTS 86KTS 91KTS


Wouldn't that be unprecedented for a westward moving system this far east at this time of the year?
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Models

#6 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Oct 27, 2010 4:15 pm

somethingfunny wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:I know the early guidance shows this hitting South America but looking at the pattern and current movement (WNW), it may come far enough north to stay over water, like the Euro is showing.

If it does, nothing looks to hinder development into a healthy system. SHIPS up to 91 knots.

SHIP 52KTS 73KTS 86KTS 91KTS


Wouldn't that be unprecedented for a westward moving system this far east at this time of the year?


I believe so. I think the latest a storm developed this far east, in this area was Hurricane Joan in early to mid October.

Image
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#7 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Oct 27, 2010 4:26 pm

This would be nearly unprecedented if 91L was to develop this far east . Actually, it would surpass Hurricane Joan in that if it gets classified a named tropical cyclone, it would come most likely in the first week of November.

Land interaction with SA looks to really impede development of this invest unless it can gain some latitude in the next few days. Interesting feature to watch out there nonetheless, especially this late in the season.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Models

#8 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 27, 2010 8:07 pm

The first run for 91L by HWRF has a hurricane bearing down on the Lesser Antilles and run ends South of Puerto Rico.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Models

#9 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 27, 2010 8:30 pm

If it continues to move at 275 degrees,it will run into Southamerica.

Code: Select all

464
WHXX01 KWBC 280123
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0123 UTC THU OCT 28 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912010) 20101028 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101028  0000   101028  1200   101029  0000   101029  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     6.0N  44.7W    6.2N  48.2W    6.9N  52.0W    7.6N  55.6W
BAMD     6.0N  44.7W    6.1N  47.8W    6.5N  50.9W    7.0N  54.0W
BAMM     6.0N  44.7W    6.0N  47.9W    6.4N  51.1W    6.8N  54.5W
LBAR     6.0N  44.7W    6.7N  47.6W    7.8N  50.8W    8.9N  53.8W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          34KTS          40KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          34KTS          40KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101030  0000   101031  0000   101101  0000   101102  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     8.5N  58.8W    9.5N  63.6W   10.0N  67.6W   10.8N  71.2W
BAMD     7.6N  56.9W    8.4N  62.1W    9.4N  67.3W   10.4N  72.8W
BAMM     7.4N  57.5W    8.1N  62.3W    8.6N  66.4W    9.5N  70.9W
LBAR    10.1N  56.6W   11.7N  61.1W   15.2N  63.7W   16.4N  64.4W
SHIP        52KTS          74KTS          85KTS          89KTS
DSHP        52KTS          32KTS          27KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   6.0N LONCUR =  44.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  16KT
LATM12 =   5.8N LONM12 =  41.5W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 =  15KT
LATM24 =   5.3N LONM24 =  38.5W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   70NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
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#10 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Oct 27, 2010 8:55 pm

Going to be a close call with SA. If it begins to develop it would gain latitude like what the HWRF is depicting. Going to depend on quick development I believe.
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#11 Postby gatorcane » Thu Oct 28, 2010 6:41 am

Wow, look at the amplification of this trough, would keep 91L far away from the U.S. and bring chilly temps to the Eastern CONUS:

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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Models

#12 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 28, 2010 6:57 am

06z HWRF continues to show a powerful hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Image
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#13 Postby dwsqos2 » Thu Oct 28, 2010 7:01 am

Rhetorical Question: After watching the HWRF over and under forecast intensity badly in even the very short-term, is it really that meaningful that the HWRF shows anything at all?

The gfs says strung-out mess in the Caribbean.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Models

#14 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 28, 2010 7:43 am

12z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 281238
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1238 UTC THU OCT 28 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912010) 20101028 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101028  1200   101029  0000   101029  1200   101030  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     7.2N  48.6W    7.9N  52.3W    8.6N  56.2W    9.6N  59.6W
BAMD     7.2N  48.6W    7.6N  51.4W    8.2N  54.4W    8.8N  57.3W
BAMM     7.2N  48.6W    7.7N  51.5W    8.1N  54.8W    8.7N  57.9W
LBAR     7.2N  48.6W    8.3N  51.7W    9.5N  54.8W   10.8N  57.7W
SHIP        30KTS          35KTS          41KTS          49KTS
DSHP        30KTS          35KTS          41KTS          49KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101030  1200   101031  1200   101101  1200   101102  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.3N  62.5W   10.9N  66.8W   11.5N  70.7W   12.4N  73.8W
BAMD     9.3N  59.9W   10.4N  64.9W   12.0N  69.8W   13.2N  74.2W
BAMM     9.2N  60.5W    9.9N  64.9W   10.7N  69.3W   11.8N  73.1W
LBAR    11.6N  60.0W   15.2N  63.6W   17.2N  64.3W   17.0N  61.2W
SHIP        59KTS          75KTS          87KTS          95KTS
DSHP        59KTS          32KTS          33KTS          33KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   7.2N LONCUR =  48.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  18KT
LATM12 =   6.4N LONM12 =  44.8W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 =  19KT
LATM24 =   5.8N LONM24 =  41.5W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =  120NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Models

#15 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 28, 2010 7:44 am

Code: Select all

*   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *  INVEST      AL912010  10/28/10  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    30    32    35    38    41    49    59    70    75    81    87    92    95
V (KT) LAND       30    32    35    38    41    49    59    42    32    29    33    32    33
V (KT) LGE mod    30    32    34    37    40    47    53    39    31    29    32    32    34

SHEAR (KT)         1     2     5     6     6     4     2     9     8    17     9    18    12
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     7     6     5     3     0     6     4     1     3     0     0    -5    -4
SHEAR DIR         83    88   214   233   290   244    68   150   163   128   109   105    94


Code: Select all

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    55% is   4.3 times the sample mean(12.6%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    33% is   4.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    26% is   5.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    14% is   4.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%)


interesting
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Models

#16 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Oct 28, 2010 7:50 am

Don't think this is the more likely scenario, but the 00z Euro has this getting left behind in the Caribbean. Regardless, we should get a name out of this.

Image
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Models

#17 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 28, 2010 7:53 am

Image
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Models

#18 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Oct 28, 2010 7:55 am

Ivanhater wrote:Don't think this is the more likely scenario, but the 00z Euro has this getting left behind in the Caribbean. Regardless, we should get a name out of this.

Image



I can see it if it fails to develop soon and skirts along the north coast of SA, the LL flow would keep it moving westward.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Models

#19 Postby GCANE » Thu Oct 28, 2010 8:14 am

FIM continues to forecast a Hispaniola landfall



Image
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Models

#20 Postby GCANE » Thu Oct 28, 2010 11:22 am

CAPE is forecast to increase to over 2000 in the next 48 hrs.


Image
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