ATL : TOMAS - Models

[dwsqos2]

The 12Z Euro leaves Tomas in the Caribbean.

[Ivanhater]

Yep..new Euro still does not recurve and leaves a strengthening hurricane in the Caribbean

[Ntxw]

If that's the case people in CA should keep a close eye with a high to the north plowing that thing wsw. Man they just can't catch a break this year...

[ronjon]

12z Euro - stuck in the caribbean.

[cycloneye]

The experimental model recurves thru the Mona Channel between DR and PR.

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/jsloop.cgi?d ... 244&wjet=1

[OURAGAN]

On radar of Martinique it' seems to me that Thomas is stationnary since a a few hours E/NE OF St Vincent.
What do you thinK?

[jinftl]

Most recent model runs (18UTC):

[KWT]

Landfall and track still looks very uncertain, central Caribbean is clearly at highest risk...and I don't buy the ECM solution at all at the moment, doesn't seem realistic, though clearly the NHC are still heading thier bets with that respect.

GFS probably not a bad call right now...

ps, ECM also weakens the system between 24-48hrs which makes it pretty suspect, probably doesn't have Tomas deep enough, and in this set-up its probablyenough to make a sizeable difference.

[caneman]

I have to chime in here. I've seen a couple of posts just about guaranting a no U.S. threat. PLease don't make statements like that unless you have a crystal ball. While it is highly unlikely, I agree. It isn't a guarantee especially this year. Further, if it does get left behind (as the Euro states), it could just plow into C.A. but who is to say another front won't sweep down and push a system into Florida. Just need to wait and see.......

[Ntxw]

I have to chime in here. I've seen a couple of posts just about guaranting a no U.S. threat. PLease don't make statements like that unless you have a crystal ball. While it is highly unlikely, I agree. It isn't a guarantee especially this year. Further, if it does get left behind (as the Euro states), it could just plow into C.A. but who is to say another front won't sweep down and push a system into Florida. Just need to wait and see.......

Nothing is 100%. However, Wxman (a pro met who has been on money so far) has stated this system will NOT effect the U.S. directly. There is merit to his statement as he is a forecaster who doesn't put lightly on his forecasts without assurance. Should Tomas even make it close to the U.S. winds aloft will rip this thing apart from just about every which way and no model indicates anything to be of concern. The next trough is going to be a powerful one, no hurricane will be able to stand up to that kind of winds upstairs.

[SootyTern]

ATM I'm not particularily concerned about Tomas for Florida either, but he is in uncharted territory pretty much by existing at this date in this location. Hoping the brick wall trough stopping him and kicking him out makes it cool again in deep south FLA...Also would be nice if he could exit the Caribbean without getting his name retired.

[snowcane180]

I remember back in september when fiona formed, everyone thought that was going to be a dangerous one and we all know what happened there.

[caneman]

I saw a particular post that gave a chance of 0% impact on Florida and it wasn't WxMn57 who I respect tremendously. I will remind folks that everyone, including models had the last storm impacting Florida initially and then it ended up going straight into C.A. I think it is highly unlikely that it would come to FLorida but given the uncertainty of models and the uniquess of this year, I hardly think 0% is reasonable.

[Dean4Storms]

There is very little chance this makes it to Florida and if it did there would not be much more left than a naked swirl with the UL trough digging as far south over the eastern half of the CONUS as all the models are indicating and hanging around for a good while.


I think the ECM is out to lunch on this one. It even shows a low forming over the northern Gulf at the base of this trough moving ENE which should cause the UL trough to dig enough to pick this hurricane up in the central Carib. Sea. If it was just a weak TS it might miss the trough but no way a hurricane doesn't go poleward as the ridge over the Atlantic erodes.

[Vortex]

12Z UKMET further west and maintains a due west heading throughout the run...


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... tLoop.html

[Vortex]

12Z ECM ensembles agree with operational...


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP240.gif

[Ivanhater]

GFS Ensembles stall Tomas and loop him around Hispaniola...

What this could mean is the trough weakens the steering currents and moves Tomas north a bit, but not enough to fully pick him up and leave him behind....a possibility that the Euro, GFS and Euro Ensembles and UKMET are showing

[ROCK]

Interesting scenario Ivan, though I got to believe it will get pulled up and out at some point. Maybe heads into CA or dies in the carib....lots of scenarios right now...

[KWT]

The only thing I will say about the GFS ensembles is they very likely will not have a good grip on the depth of the system due to the resolution, but still quite a few models do sorta hold the system where it is, which even in the Caribbean probably would lead to upwelling in the end...

Still Hazel moved very slowly and thats a system that really is catching my eye in terms of a comprasion in the Caribbean, so maybe the chances of slow movement are increasing...

[Ivanhater]

Interesting scenario Ivan, though I got to believe it will get pulled up and out at some point. Maybe heads into CA or dies in the carib....lots of scenarios right now...

Good to see you Rock as we are deep into Football season...looks like August out there! lol

Yeah, we will probably see Tomas stall as the trough erodes the western edge of the ridge and will probably start to move north. It is what happens after that, that I'm focusing in on. It could get left behind and loop back. Not the highest possibility, but some models and ensemble members are showing this. Not a clear cut track as of now.