ATL : TOMAS - Models

[Windtalker1]

I see this getting as far west as Jamaica then a turn to the North after that. To low in latitude to get pulled up sooner.

[gatorcane]

00Z NAM shows a narrow ridge spanning from the western Atlantic just east of the Bahamas all the way to the gom. This is 4 days from now

[Vortex]

00z GFS looks to be quite a storm S of Jamaica in 5-7 days


H162



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162l.gif

[Macrocane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such.

The last 2 runs of the GFS shows a strong system, could Tomas be the 6th major? I'm not sure though it has a good chance to become a cat 1 or even cat 2 hurricane.

[Macrocane]

The 00z GFS shows a pretty scary scenario for Haiti and Dominican Republic, reminds me to Noel but stronger.

[cycloneye]

The new run of the Bams skip Southamerica totally and now both SHIP and DSHP are on the same page in intensity.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 290635
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0635 UTC FRI OCT 29 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912010) 20101029 0600 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101029  0600   101029  1800   101030  0600   101030  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     8.7N  53.6W    9.9N  57.1W   10.8N  60.2W   11.4N  62.8W
BAMD     8.7N  53.6W    9.6N  56.2W   10.3N  58.4W   10.8N  60.5W
BAMM     8.7N  53.6W    9.7N  56.4W   10.4N  58.6W   11.0N  60.7W
LBAR     8.7N  53.6W   10.0N  56.3W   11.3N  59.0W   12.3N  60.6W
SHIP        30KTS          36KTS          43KTS          53KTS
DSHP        30KTS          36KTS          43KTS          53KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101031  0600   101101  0600   101102  0600   101103  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.7N  65.3W   12.1N  70.2W   12.4N  74.3W   12.7N  76.4W
BAMD    11.3N  62.6W   12.7N  67.3W   14.0N  71.8W   15.4N  74.9W
BAMM    11.5N  62.7W   12.3N  67.2W   13.1N  71.7W   14.3N  74.9W
LBAR    14.1N  62.9W   15.9N  66.0W   16.6N  66.6W   16.4N  65.5W
SHIP        63KTS          73KTS          83KTS          92KTS
DSHP        63KTS          73KTS          83KTS          92KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   8.7N LONCUR =  53.6W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  17KT
LATM12 =   7.7N LONM12 =  50.4W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 =  19KT
LATM24 =   6.8N LONM24 =  46.8W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =  120NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[cycloneye]

Finnally, 06z GFDL is on board with development.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

06z HWRF continues with the Eastern Caribbean hurricane

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[HURRICANELONNY]

That's the most structured wave I've seen all year. Once recon gets in there and gets a fix. Then the models will have some validity. They usually change drastically once there is a defined center. I say Tomas by 5pm.

[GCANE]

FIM

Landfall Haiti, 162 hrs out.


[img]
[/img]

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 291204
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1204 UTC FRI OCT 29 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912010) 20101029 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101029  1200   101030  0000   101030  1200   101031  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.3N  55.7W   10.3N  58.8W   10.8N  61.6W   11.4N  64.2W
BAMD     9.3N  55.7W   10.2N  58.2W   10.9N  60.3W   11.3N  62.3W
BAMM     9.3N  55.7W   10.3N  58.1W   10.8N  60.1W   11.4N  62.1W
LBAR     9.3N  55.7W   10.8N  58.5W   11.8N  60.8W   14.0N  62.8W
SHIP        30KTS          36KTS          44KTS          54KTS
DSHP        30KTS          36KTS          44KTS          54KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101031  1200   101101  1200   101102  1200   101103  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.6N  66.7W   12.5N  71.4W   13.0N  74.8W   13.7N  75.5W
BAMD    11.8N  64.5W   13.4N  69.4W   14.8N  73.6W   16.6N  75.5W
BAMM    11.8N  64.2W   13.1N  68.9W   14.3N  73.1W   15.7N  75.0W
LBAR    14.9N  65.3W   17.2N  66.9W   17.7N  67.0W   17.1N  65.5W
SHIP        63KTS          75KTS          85KTS          93KTS
DSHP        63KTS          75KTS          85KTS          93KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   9.3N LONCUR =  55.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  18KT
LATM12 =   8.3N LONM12 =  52.2W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 =  19KT
LATM24 =   7.2N LONM24 =  48.6W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   90NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[SouthDadeFish]

I found this interesting from the 12Z SHIPS:

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 66% is 5.2 times the sample mean(12.6%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 49% is 6.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 43% is 9.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 23% is 6.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

[bvigal]

Anybody know when to expect update of Canadian from last run at 00z?

Have mentioned before my confidence in HWRF, which is an opinion formed from experience with specific storms effecting where I live and friends to the southeast. FLST-methaz site shows HWRF so far most accurate on 91L.
Average Position Error (nm) for core models
model Error Trend 24hr
HWRF INCREASING 52 -
LBAR INCREASING 69.6
KHRM INCREASING 81.5
BAMD INCREASING 105.3
MM5B DECREASING 111.3
MM5E INCREASING 127.2

It is early still, so can't draw any conclusions, just an interesting bit of info to post. But, there is one reason to cheer on the HWRF, its track so far looks much less ominous for Haiti than most of the other models. With the ongoing cholera outbreak, and millions in relief dollars slow to be utlized or gone into crooked local political pockets, the potential for loss of life if Haiti is hit by a storm is still very high. Would so hate to see a cyclone heading that direction!!!

[somethingfunny]

It is early still, so can't draw any conclusions, just an interesting bit of info to post. But, there is one reason to cheer on the HWRF, its track so far looks much less ominous for Haiti than most of the other models. With the ongoing cholera outbreak, and millions in relief dollars slow to be utlized or gone into crooked local political pockets, the potential for loss of life if Haiti is hit by a storm is still very high. Would so hate to see a cyclone heading that direction!!!

I would very much like to see the authorities in Haiti recieve some warnings over this storm now rather than later.

[TCmet]

It is early still, so can't draw any conclusions, just an interesting bit of info to post. But, there is one reason to cheer on the HWRF, its track so far looks much less ominous for Haiti than most of the other models. With the ongoing cholera outbreak, and millions in relief dollars slow to be utlized or gone into crooked local political pockets, the potential for loss of life if Haiti is hit by a storm is still very high. Would so hate to see a cyclone heading that direction!!!

I would very much like to see the authorities in Haiti recieve some warnings over this storm now rather than later.

We are working with the government of Haiti and also the humanitarian community there to make sure they have the latest information on 91L. However, warnings are a very political issue in Haiti. This is sometimes out of the meteorologists' control. The good news is, the humanitarian community is very proactive and I can vouch that they are taking 91L VERY seriously.

[bvigal]

It is early still, so can't draw any conclusions, just an interesting bit of info to post. But, there is one reason to cheer on the HWRF, its track so far looks much less ominous for Haiti than most of the other models. With the ongoing cholera outbreak, and millions in relief dollars slow to be utlized or gone into crooked local political pockets, the potential for loss of life if Haiti is hit by a storm is still very high. Would so hate to see a cyclone heading that direction!!!

I would very much like to see the authorities in Haiti recieve some warnings over this storm now rather than later.

We are working with the government of Haiti and also the humanitarian community there to make sure they have the latest information on 91L. However, warnings are a very political issue in Haiti. This is sometimes out of the meteorologists' control. The good news is, the humanitarian community is very proactive and I can vouch that they are taking 91L VERY seriously.

So good to hear from you TCmet! You and all the wonderful relief workers, and all the citizens of Haiti remain in our prayers for the best possible outcome!!! If Thomas must pass near/over Haiti, let's hope it passes quickly with as little wind/rain as possible!

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has a big disaster for Haiti if it verifies.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC develops bigtime South of Hispanola and moves close to Jamaica and tracks thru Eastern Cuba.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Evil Jeremy]

12z GFDL has this system over Jamaica in 120 hours, but I don't know how reliable it is, because on this run, the GFDL looses the system after 6 hours, and thus stops tracking it in high resolution with an intensity forecast, but it still takes the overall low pressure mass and makes a closed low out of it in about 48 hours.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

bvigal,12z HWRF almost goes over you at BVI.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Ivanhater]

Euro much stronger..hit on Jamaica