ATL : TOMAS - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5450
Age: 30
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

Re:

#201 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Oct 31, 2010 2:46 pm

snowcane180 wrote:Are you kidding? The lbar and bam models perform better than the rest


LBAR I believe is based on climatology and should generally not be used because
it does not account for the current weather patterns. :wink:
BAM is usually for low's that are not in the tropics I believe- pro mets please
correct me if I am wrong.
0 likes   

Migle
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 203
Age: 36
Joined: Fri Aug 27, 2010 5:30 pm
Location: New Orleans

Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models

#202 Postby Migle » Sun Oct 31, 2010 5:16 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:snowcane180 wrote:
Are you kidding? The lbar and bam models perform better than the rest


LBAR I believe is based on climatology and should generally not be used because
it does not account for the current weather patterns.
BAM is usually for low's that are not in the tropics I believe- pro mets please
correct me if I am wrong.
Posted: Sun Oct 31, 2010 2:46 pm


Well, I am not sure about all of that, but what I do know is the BAM Models do about as well as the XTRAP does, so...
0 likes   

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Plano, TX (N Dal)

Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models

#203 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Oct 31, 2010 7:10 pm

Migle wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:snowcane180 wrote:
Are you kidding? The lbar and bam models perform better than the rest


LBAR I believe is based on climatology and should generally not be used because
it does not account for the current weather patterns.
BAM is usually for low's that are not in the tropics I believe- pro mets please
correct me if I am wrong.
Posted: Sun Oct 31, 2010 2:46 pm


Well, I am not sure about all of that, but what I do know is the BAM Models do about as well as the XTRAP does, so...


The BAMs are primarily for the deep tropics/MDR
0 likes   

jinftl
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4308
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:47 pm
Location: fort lauderdale, fl

Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models

#204 Postby jinftl » Sun Oct 31, 2010 9:13 pm

The consensus amongst the models is that we will indeed see tomas weaken to a tropical storm over the next few days....the consensus is also that he will intensify beyond that.

Image
0 likes   

dwsqos2

#205 Postby dwsqos2 » Mon Nov 01, 2010 1:22 am

00Z runs the of Euro has a much more coherent tc at hour 72.
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 45
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#206 Postby Vortex » Mon Nov 01, 2010 12:33 pm

FWIW, nogaps continues to leave tomas behind..
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109257
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models

#207 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 01, 2010 1:31 pm

18z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

665
WHXX01 KWBC 011819
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1819 UTC MON NOV 1 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS (AL212010) 20101101 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101101  1800   101102  0600   101102  1800   101103  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.4N  69.2W   13.8N  71.6W   14.3N  73.7W   14.4N  75.4W
BAMD    13.4N  69.2W   13.7N  70.6W   14.0N  71.9W   14.6N  73.0W
BAMM    13.4N  69.2W   13.3N  70.9W   13.6N  72.5W   14.0N  73.8W
LBAR    13.4N  69.2W   13.4N  70.8W   13.7N  72.0W   14.0N  72.8W
SHIP        40KTS          38KTS          39KTS          44KTS
DSHP        40KTS          38KTS          39KTS          44KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101103  1800   101104  1800   101105  1800   101106  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.5N  76.8W   14.4N  77.4W   16.2N  73.0W   21.0N  68.3W
BAMD    15.2N  74.1W   16.8N  76.3W   20.9N  76.2W   28.7N  69.0W
BAMM    14.4N  74.8W   15.3N  76.1W   17.7N  74.2W   23.1N  69.2W
LBAR    14.1N  73.3W   13.8N  74.0W   15.1N  74.5W   15.5N  72.8W
SHIP        53KTS          68KTS          84KTS          87KTS
DSHP        53KTS          68KTS          84KTS          80KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.4N LONCUR =  69.2W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =  13.9N LONM12 =  67.1W DIRM12 = 258DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =  14.2N LONM24 =  64.4W
WNDCUR =   40KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   45KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =  120NM RD34SE =   50NM RD34SW =   20NM RD34NW =  40NM
 
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109257
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models

#208 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 01, 2010 1:43 pm

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 13354
Age: 54
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models

#209 Postby tolakram » Mon Nov 01, 2010 3:16 pm

Euro now shows a decent storm as it makes the northward turn.

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
srainhoutx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6662
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6
Contact:

Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models

#210 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Nov 01, 2010 3:23 pm

:uarrow: And the heads it back S?
0 likes   
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
KHOU Regional Weather Forum
http://forums.khou.com/index.php

Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 13354
Age: 54
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models

#211 Postby tolakram » Mon Nov 01, 2010 3:26 pm

Moves over Haiti as a weaker system, then moves SE along the coast.
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109257
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models

#212 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 01, 2010 5:55 pm

18z GFS moves Tomas slowly just north of Puerto Rico.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 45
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#213 Postby Vortex » Mon Nov 01, 2010 7:16 pm

18Z Nogaps says not so fast and leaves a strengthening storm heading west s of jamaica...


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 45
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#214 Postby Vortex » Mon Nov 01, 2010 7:18 pm

12Z ECM sends it back into the carribean with building heights to the N and NW...


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP240.gif
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 45
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#215 Postby Vortex » Mon Nov 01, 2010 7:21 pm

18Z GFS doesnt get the job entirely done and leaves it adrift N of PR...interesting trends...


H174 still N of PR

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 45
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#216 Postby Vortex » Mon Nov 01, 2010 7:23 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 45
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#217 Postby Vortex » Mon Nov 01, 2010 7:24 pm

H240 ECM ensembles over western carribean with strong ridging to the North...


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP240.gif
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 45
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#218 Postby Vortex » Mon Nov 01, 2010 7:25 pm

18Z GFS ensembles over the central carribean sea

H168


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal168.gif
0 likes   

User avatar
HurricaneBelle
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 597
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:12 pm
Location: Clearwater, FL

Re:

#219 Postby HurricaneBelle » Mon Nov 01, 2010 7:26 pm

Vortex wrote:H192 ECM ensembles not so fast...



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP192.gif


Sorry, couldn't help but think of this:
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109257
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models

#220 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 01, 2010 7:51 pm

00z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

 
WHXX01 KWBC 020048
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0048 UTC TUE NOV 2 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS (AL212010) 20101102 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101102  0000   101102  1200   101103  0000   101103  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.5N  70.4W   13.9N  72.6W   14.3N  74.4W   14.4N  76.0W
BAMD    13.5N  70.4W   13.9N  71.8W   14.3N  72.9W   14.9N  73.9W
BAMM    13.5N  70.4W   13.6N  72.1W   14.0N  73.5W   14.4N  74.7W
LBAR    13.5N  70.4W   13.9N  72.1W   14.4N  73.3W   14.9N  74.0W
SHIP        40KTS          41KTS          44KTS          48KTS
DSHP        40KTS          41KTS          44KTS          48KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101104  0000   101105  0000   101106  0000   101107  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.6N  77.2W   14.6N  77.6W   16.1N  72.9W   19.0N  69.0W
BAMD    15.4N  74.8W   17.3N  76.7W   22.6N  75.1W   31.1N  64.7W
BAMM    14.7N  75.5W   15.5N  76.7W   18.2N  74.0W   22.3N  69.8W
LBAR    15.1N  74.4W   15.3N  74.6W   18.3N  74.6W   21.3N  70.9W
SHIP        55KTS          69KTS          81KTS          80KTS
DSHP        55KTS          69KTS          80KTS          75KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.5N LONCUR =  70.4W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =  13.6N LONM12 =  68.2W DIRM12 = 256DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =  14.1N LONM24 =  65.8W
WNDCUR =   40KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   40KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =  120NM RD34SE =   40NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =  40NM
 
$$

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “2010”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests