ATL : TOMAS - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Vortmax1
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 360
Joined: Wed Jul 07, 2010 11:35 pm
Location: Port Salerno, FL
Contact:

#141 Postby Vortmax1 » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:26 pm

The Euro IS the outlier.




OK Dog...that's what you say tonight.
I think we're going to have to deal with the ECM forecast soon enough!
0 likes   

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 10134
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Las Vegas
Contact:

Re:

#142 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:35 pm

Vortmax1 wrote:
The Euro IS the outlier.




OK Dog...that's what you say tonight.
I think we're going to have to deal with the ECM forecast soon enough!


Do you have any support to back that up?
0 likes   
Michael

Vortmax1
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 360
Joined: Wed Jul 07, 2010 11:35 pm
Location: Port Salerno, FL
Contact:

#143 Postby Vortmax1 » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:38 pm

Do you have any support to back that up?




No more support than you have in saying the trough will pick it up!

I mean really...there is NO support here!
Or all the models would track the same way man.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 10134
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Las Vegas
Contact:

Re:

#144 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:41 pm

Vortmax1 wrote:
Do you have any support to back that up?




No more support than you have in saying the trough will pick it up!

I mean really...there is NO support here!
Or all the models would track the same way man.


You obviously did not take the time to read my posts. I never said the trough will pick it up. I'm the one who was actually pointing out the outlier possibility of the Euro...but it is an outlier.
0 likes   
Michael

User avatar
fci
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3175
Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:29 am
Location: Lake Worth, FL

#145 Postby fci » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:42 pm

When there is a monster storm in the Carib; no one can guarantee anything until they actually see it happen.

I totally trust what wxman57 says and the NHC; but will not rest easy until Tomas either completes its journey or dies.
0 likes   

User avatar
Macrocane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4197
Age: 29
Joined: Sun May 24, 2009 5:35 pm
Location: El Salvador

Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models

#146 Postby Macrocane » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:44 pm

Euro is an outlier indeed, it's a possibility but most of the models agree on the trough picking it up.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 14864
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

#147 Postby Ntxw » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:44 pm

Euro or no euro, either way this is going to be a Caribbean problem for now...euro = likely CA, no Euro = the greater antilles...
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 45
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models

#148 Postby Vortex » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:45 pm

FWIW, latest BAMD run did an about face and I have no idea how it ends up in the mid-atlantic....I have not a clue......Anyone care to take a stab at it?
0 likes   

Vortmax1
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 360
Joined: Wed Jul 07, 2010 11:35 pm
Location: Port Salerno, FL
Contact:

#149 Postby Vortmax1 » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:47 pm

You obviously did not take the time to read my posts. I never said the trough will pick it up. I'm the one who was actually pointing out the outlier possibility of the Euro...but it is an outlier.



And you would be right about that.
I obviously did not read back far enough to read what you said.

Sorry for that.

I'm a large fan of the ECM and have seen it forecast right more than wrong over the last many years.

Not to give faith in any model...but I think it has something to say regarding Tomas.

We're still in late fall/early winter in the CONUS...so forecasting these fronts are really hit or miss!
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 45
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#150 Postby Vortex » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:48 pm

I pointed that out because it was eerily similar to Hazel... :uarrow:
0 likes   

snowcane180

#151 Postby snowcane180 » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:48 pm

Some intense hurricanes create their own path. I think this hurricane will travel through the carribean, not affect any landmasses and dissipate in the gulf
0 likes   

User avatar
TheDreamTraveler
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 195
Joined: Sun Aug 22, 2010 3:10 am
Location: Enola, PA

Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models

#152 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:49 pm

Vortex wrote:FWIW, latest BAMD run did an about face and I have no idea how it ends up in the mid-atlantic....I have not a clue......Anyone care to take a stab at it?


I just saw what you were talking about. The Bam models are usually really goofy. So I wouldn't pay much attention to it. Though I'm curious to see how it came up with that solution too.
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 45
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

Re:

#153 Postby Vortex » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:51 pm

Vortmax1 wrote:
You obviously did not take the time to read my posts. I never said the trough will pick it up. I'm the one who was actually pointing out the outlier possibility of the Euro...but it is an outlier.



And you would be right about that.
I obviously did not read back far enough to read what you said.

Sorry for that.

I'm a large fan of the ECM and have seen it forecast right more than wrong over the last many years.

Not to give faith in any model...but I think it has something to say regarding Tomas.

We're still in late fall/early winter in the CONUS...so forecasting these fronts are really hit or miss!



Aside from it being the ECM(one of the best as we know) it has been very CONSISTENT in leaving tomas behind....having said that the GFS has been just as if not more consistent in making the full connection...One will cave in sooner or later....
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109493
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models

#154 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:52 pm

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Vortmax1
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 360
Joined: Wed Jul 07, 2010 11:35 pm
Location: Port Salerno, FL
Contact:

#155 Postby Vortmax1 » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:56 pm

the GFS has been just as if not more consistent in making the full connection...One will cave in sooner or later....



Yes...the GFS has been pretty solid on this particular storm!
But there's no agreement with the ECM!

Sorry guys...I have seen the failures of the GFS and the ECM...but rarely does the ECM fail!

I have lived in south Florida all my life. At this time of year it is difficult to believe there will be a cold front strong enough to yank a storm out of the Carib!

I'm going the other way for now.
Last edited by Vortmax1 on Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

snowcane180

#156 Postby snowcane180 » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:56 pm

Have the Bam models ever been right???
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 45
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

Re:

#157 Postby Vortex » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:59 pm

snowcane180 wrote:Have the Bam models ever been right???



from time to time they hit a homerun...interested in bamd as it would be expected to perform best given the "deep" nature of the storm....often there not very good with the long-term destination but at times decent in sniffing out trends...
0 likes   

caneman

Re:

#158 Postby caneman » Sat Oct 30, 2010 8:01 pm

Vortmax1 wrote:
the GFS has been just as if not more consistent in making the full connection...One will cave in sooner or later....



Yes...the GFS has been pretty solid on this particular storm!
But there's no agreement with the ECM!

Sorry guys...I have seen the failures of the GFS and the ECM...but rarely does the ECM fail!

I have lived in south Florida all my life. At this time of year it is difficult to believe there will be a cold front strong enough to yank a storm out of the Carib!

I'm going the other way for now.


ECM hasn't been that great this year. GFS has done an incredible job this year but who knows Euro could be right this time. At least worth paying attention to.
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 45
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#159 Postby Vortex » Sat Oct 30, 2010 8:05 pm

For those that haven't seen the 12Z ECM...Here's the loop..


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... _loop.html
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 45
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#160 Postby Vortex » Sat Oct 30, 2010 8:06 pm

For those that haven't seen the 12Z ECM...Here's the loop..


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... _loop.html
0 likes   


Return to “2010”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests