ATL : TOMAS - Models

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snowcane180

#161 Postby snowcane180 » Sat Oct 30, 2010 8:08 pm

We should all just follow the euro model
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models

#162 Postby Vortex » Sat Oct 30, 2010 8:08 pm

For those that haven't seen the 12Z ECM...Here's the loop..


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... _loop.html
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#163 Postby Vortmax1 » Sat Oct 30, 2010 8:12 pm

Well...after you look at this mess it's not hard to believe the ECM might be correct!


Image
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Re: Re:

#164 Postby Ntxw » Sat Oct 30, 2010 8:12 pm

Vortex wrote:from time to time they hit a homerun...interested in bamd as it would be expected to perform best given the "deep" nature of the storm....often there not very good with the long-term destination but at times decent in sniffing out trends...


I could be wrong on this, but the Bamd isn't as good during the later half of the season when the upper pattern is more progressive from observance. It tends to do better when things are controlled by high pressure and not so well with troughs digging in especially in October.

^ The EC may very well be correct, but the current stance is that it is the outlier at this time compared to the rest.
Last edited by Ntxw on Sat Oct 30, 2010 8:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#165 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 30, 2010 8:14 pm

Vortmax1 wrote:Well...after you look at this mess it's not hard to believe the ECM might be correct!


Image


It's interesting to note the ecmwf does not really strengthen this as it moves into the eastern Caribbean. It strengthens rapidly once the gulf of Mexico trough lifts out.

Looking at tomas now maybe it will just get this right.

This could be a major intensity forecast bust from the nhc if the euro holds
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#166 Postby Vortmax1 » Sat Oct 30, 2010 8:19 pm

Looking at tomas now maybe it will just get this right.

This could be a major intensity forecast bust from the nhc if the euro holds




Let's be honest...the official agency has not done well with this one anyway.
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#167 Postby snowcane180 » Sat Oct 30, 2010 9:07 pm

Told you we should all follow the euro
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#168 Postby snowcane180 » Sat Oct 30, 2010 9:10 pm

If some models do bad jobs of forecasting always. why use the model?
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Re:

#169 Postby Aquawind » Sat Oct 30, 2010 9:13 pm

snowcane180 wrote:If some models do bad jobs of forecasting always. why use the model?



They are just another tool for forecasting..
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#170 Postby Ntxw » Sat Oct 30, 2010 9:18 pm

^ That is why you use the consensus of where the majority goes. Could they be wrong? Absolutely, the single odd one could be right, but that is not generally a wise thing to do. Follow what most are saying and when/if they converge with the odd one out, make a better forecast.
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Re:

#171 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Oct 30, 2010 9:28 pm

Ntxw wrote:^ That is why you use the consensus of where the majority goes. Could they be wrong? Absolutely, the single odd one could be right, but that is not generally a wise thing to do. Follow what most are saying and when/if they converge with the odd one out, make a better forecast.


I'm not sure what some posters are talking about. The consensus is actually in good agreement right now for a north turn. There is an outlier with the Euro which should be discussed, but I want some newbies to know it a a low probability right now.
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#172 Postby Vortmax1 » Sat Oct 30, 2010 9:33 pm

but I want some newbies to know it a a low probability right now.




I know...it's sad. I do not have many thousand posts on this site and I guess I am considered a newbie for it.

Whatever....the ECM is on the money right now and is not backing off!

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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models

#173 Postby latitude_20 » Sat Oct 30, 2010 10:11 pm

Well, um, the consensus has been reliable all season.
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models

#174 Postby weatherSnoop » Sat Oct 30, 2010 10:58 pm

latitude_20 wrote:Well, um, the consensus has been reliable all season.


Which consensus? Are there not several?
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models

#175 Postby SFLcane » Sat Oct 30, 2010 11:18 pm

Here's a look at the 00z models plots for Tomas....real models

Image
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#176 Postby Aquawind » Sat Oct 30, 2010 11:22 pm

Woah..Serious turn would be the consensus..
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models

#177 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Oct 30, 2010 11:23 pm

00z GFS direct hit on Haiti moving north, caught in the trough.
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models

#178 Postby latitude_20 » Sat Oct 30, 2010 11:26 pm

weatherSnoop wrote:
latitude_20 wrote:Well, um, the consensus has been reliable all season.


Which consensus? Are there not several?


It's going to turn north. Sigh.
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Re:

#179 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Oct 30, 2010 11:43 pm

snowcane180 wrote:Told you we should all follow the euro


Based on what? It's the outlier, which means it is against all the other models. You want to go with the single model that does not show what the others do? That is like betting on the one horse in the race with a broken leg.
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models

#180 Postby somethingfunny » Sat Oct 30, 2010 11:51 pm

The Euro is a total outlier. The consensus of every model except the Euro is for a sharp right turn, the only difference is the speed/timing. Except the Euro, which has an unrealistic solution for Tomas.
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