ATL : SHARY - Models

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ATL : SHARY - Models

#1 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Oct 27, 2010 3:30 pm

Canadian loves it.


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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 27, 2010 3:52 pm

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 271927
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1927 UTC WED OCT 27 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20101027 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101027  1800   101028  0600   101028  1800   101029  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    22.5N  53.5W   23.3N  56.0W   24.7N  59.1W   26.9N  62.0W
BAMD    22.5N  53.5W   23.7N  55.1W   25.3N  57.6W   27.4N  60.2W
BAMM    22.5N  53.5W   23.3N  55.6W   24.6N  58.6W   26.5N  61.8W
LBAR    22.5N  53.5W   23.4N  54.7W   24.8N  56.6W   26.6N  58.5W
SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          38KTS          45KTS
DSHP        25KTS          31KTS          38KTS          45KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101029  1800   101030  1800   101031  1800   101101  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    29.5N  63.9W   33.8N  60.7W   36.8N  51.4W   40.0N  38.2W
BAMD    30.2N  61.9W   37.5N  55.5W   49.1N  38.3W   57.3N   9.6W
BAMM    29.0N  64.3W   33.9N  60.1W   40.7N  46.2W   49.9N  29.0W
LBAR    29.0N  59.7W   35.2N  55.3W   40.0N  41.7W   46.3N  25.9W
SHIP        51KTS          60KTS          52KTS          33KTS
DSHP        51KTS          60KTS          52KTS          33KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  22.5N LONCUR =  53.5W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR =   5KT
LATM12 =  21.9N LONM12 =  52.7W DIRM12 = 304DEG SPDM12 =   4KT
LATM24 =  21.5N LONM24 =  52.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  230NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 

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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Models

#3 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Oct 27, 2010 4:28 pm

SHIPS up to 60 knots.

We could be up to the T storm by the start of November. Pretty darn close to the Greek Alphabet. Can't help to laugh at the early season cancel posts. :eek:
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Models

#4 Postby hurricaneCW » Wed Oct 27, 2010 4:59 pm

Ivanhater wrote:SHIPS up to 60 knots.

We could be up to the T storm by the start of November. Pretty darn close to the Greek Alphabet. Can't help to laugh at the early season cancel posts. :eek:


In all honesty, it's still a pretty quiet season overall despite the above average ACE and number of storms. If this one develops, it will add on to the names and add on to the ACE but that won't make the season active in the public's eye. It's amazing that despite all of these systems, not one hurricane has made landfall in the U.S., the odds of having some 17+ named storms and no hurricane in the U.S. are pretty shocking.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Models

#5 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Oct 27, 2010 5:08 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:SHIPS up to 60 knots.

We could be up to the T storm by the start of November. Pretty darn close to the Greek Alphabet. Can't help to laugh at the early season cancel posts. :eek:


In all honesty, it's still a pretty quiet season overall despite the above average ACE and number of storms. If this one develops, it will add on to the names and add on to the ACE but that won't make the season active in the public's eye. It's amazing that despite all of these systems, not one hurricane has made landfall in the U.S., the odds of having some 17+ named storms and no hurricane in the U.S. are pretty shocking.



I'm seeing a lot of chatter regarding an 'active season'. It has nothing to do with US landfalls, folks. This debate is far better suited for Talking Tropics, IMO. :wink:
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Models

#6 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Oct 27, 2010 5:10 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:SHIPS up to 60 knots.

We could be up to the T storm by the start of November. Pretty darn close to the Greek Alphabet. Can't help to laugh at the early season cancel posts. :eek:


In all honesty, it's still a pretty quiet season overall despite the above average ACE and number of storms. If this one develops, it will add on to the names and add on to the ACE but that won't make the season active in the public's eye. It's amazing that despite all of these systems, not one hurricane has made landfall in the U.S., the odds of having some 17+ named storms and no hurricane in the U.S. are pretty shocking.


I agree with the fact that it is amazing the U.S didn't get whopped this year; however, we will very likely get to the T storm this season. How many times has that happened. In every aspect, this has been a hyperactive season. This is getting off the topic at hand though, so any further discussion will continue in Talking tropics.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Models

#7 Postby Ikester » Thu Oct 28, 2010 1:29 pm

Well Ivan, it's easy to get to the 'T' storm when they name everything that has thunderstorms with it. Thinking back to storms Bonnie, Colin, Gaston, Fiona, or Nicole and then TD 2, and 5...what a waste. Half of those systems existed but for a moment in time and there is no good indication (IMO) that the above storms carried 39 mph sustained winds...in gusts, maybe. Also lets throw in the fact that the NHC has completely skewed the records by naming sub-tropical storms. You mean we went nearly 70 years without reaching 21 storms and in the last 5 years, we're on the verge of doing it twice? Come on. Something is up and it is NOT the 'changing climate.'
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Models

#8 Postby Macrocane » Thu Oct 28, 2010 1:41 pm

Ikester wrote:Well Ivan, it's easy to get to the 'T' storm when they name everything that has thunderstorms with it. Thinking back to storms Bonnie, Colin, Gaston, Fiona, or Nicole and then TD 2, and 5...what a waste. Half of those systems existed but for a moment in time and there is no good indication (IMO) that the above storms carried 39 mph sustained winds...in gusts, maybe. Also lets throw in the fact that the NHC has completely skewed the records by naming sub-tropical storms. You mean we went nearly 70 years without reaching 21 storms and in the last 5 years, we're on the verge of doing it twice? Come on. Something is up and it is NOT the 'changing climate.'


Excuse me but I don't think they wasted names in systems like Colin and Fiona their winds reached 60 mph and 65 mph respectively. Plus even if they didn't name subtropical systems in the past those storms are counted in the final totals, for example 1969 had 18 storms and one of them was a subtropical storm.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Models

#9 Postby Ikester » Thu Oct 28, 2010 1:55 pm

Macrocane wrote:
Ikester wrote:Well Ivan, it's easy to get to the 'T' storm when they name everything that has thunderstorms with it. Thinking back to storms Bonnie, Colin, Gaston, Fiona, or Nicole and then TD 2, and 5...what a waste. Half of those systems existed but for a moment in time and there is no good indication (IMO) that the above storms carried 39 mph sustained winds...in gusts, maybe. Also lets throw in the fact that the NHC has completely skewed the records by naming sub-tropical storms. You mean we went nearly 70 years without reaching 21 storms and in the last 5 years, we're on the verge of doing it twice? Come on. Something is up and it is NOT the 'changing climate.'


Excuse me but I don't think they wasted names in systems like Colin and Fiona their winds reached 60 mph and 65 mph respectively. Plus even if they didn't name subtropical systems in the past those storms are counted in the final totals, for example 1969 had 18 storms and one of them was a subtropical storm.


Poppycocks. I not for a second believe that those storms had that kind of wind with them. The organization was dismal at best. Half the time Colin had an exposed center. Just because the NHC says it has such wind doesn't mean that it does. You can find example after example of 'max' sustained winds and corresponding observations that don't even come close to that. Case in point, T.S. Allison, 2001. "Sustained 1-min wind" was 60 mph. The highest sustained wind I could find was at Pleasure Peir in Galveston of 38 kts or 43 mph. That's just ONE example of many I'm sure I could muster up. Another example is Hurricane Ike. Not one single observation even came close to reporting a 1-min. sustained wind of 110 mph. You'd be hard pressed to even find a gust that high.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Models

#10 Postby hurricaneCW » Thu Oct 28, 2010 2:01 pm

Ikester wrote:Well Ivan, it's easy to get to the 'T' storm when they name everything that has thunderstorms with it. Thinking back to storms Bonnie, Colin, Gaston, Fiona, or Nicole and then TD 2, and 5...what a waste. Half of those systems existed but for a moment in time and there is no good indication (IMO) that the above storms carried 39 mph sustained winds...in gusts, maybe. Also lets throw in the fact that the NHC has completely skewed the records by naming sub-tropical storms. You mean we went nearly 70 years without reaching 21 storms and in the last 5 years, we're on the verge of doing it twice? Come on. Something is up and it is NOT the 'changing climate.'


Even if they were weak or disorganized, each of those systems you mentioned fit the standards of a TS or TD, there were several years in the past with systems like Bonnie and Colin that were named. A TS doesn't have to be perfectly formed, there just has to be enough convection and a LLC with winds up to 39 mph for it to get classified. The subtropical thing is still in question, but at least they don't add that to the ACE column which truly measures the season's activity level.

As for the past 70 years, I do agree with you that there were likely many more systems that were unclassified but the NHC and other organizations do acknowledge the fact that the number of named storms has probably held steady for the last 70 or so years because there were probably several unclassified systems in the past. However, even though the number of named storms has probably held steady, the change in climate has definitely increased the number of major storms that we've seen. This is all due to the warming oceans over the last 70-100 years and that is not a made up statistic.

Now back to the topic at hand.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Models

#11 Postby Ikester » Thu Oct 28, 2010 2:04 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:
Ikester wrote:Well Ivan, it's easy to get to the 'T' storm when they name everything that has thunderstorms with it. Thinking back to storms Bonnie, Colin, Gaston, Fiona, or Nicole and then TD 2, and 5...what a waste. Half of those systems existed but for a moment in time and there is no good indication (IMO) that the above storms carried 39 mph sustained winds...in gusts, maybe. Also lets throw in the fact that the NHC has completely skewed the records by naming sub-tropical storms. You mean we went nearly 70 years without reaching 21 storms and in the last 5 years, we're on the verge of doing it twice? Come on. Something is up and it is NOT the 'changing climate.'


Even if they were weak or disorganized, each of those systems you mentioned fit the standards of a TS or TD, there were several years in the past with systems like Bonnie and Colin that were named. A TS doesn't have to be perfectly formed, there just has to be enough convection and a LLC with winds up to 39 mph for it to get classified. The subtropical thing is still in question, but at least they don't add that to the ACE column which truly measures the season's activity level.

As for the past 70 years, I do agree with you that there were likely many more systems that were unclassified but the NHC and other organizations do acknowledge the fact that the number of named storms has probably held steady for the last 70 or so years because there were probably several unclassified systems in the past. However, even though the number of named storms has probably held steady, the change in climate has definitely increased the number of major storms that we've seen. This is all due to the warming oceans over the last 70-100 years and that is not a made up statistic.

Now back to the topic at hand.


Dr. Chris Landsea of the National Hurricane Center would disagree. Upon my meeting with him, he indicated that while hurricanes are increasing in strength, it is negligible and can't be measured accurately. The increase in strength, this according to Dr. Landsea is a 3 to 5% increase. What difference does that make with a storm velocity of 100 kts? Not much. Could easily be disguised as a gust.

On a side note, I'm going to go celebrate my birthday right now with a hurricane at the local bar! :ggreen:
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#12 Postby Bizzles » Thu Oct 28, 2010 2:17 pm

So about those Invest Models... :spam:
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Models

#13 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 28, 2010 8:45 pm

Code: Select all

474
WHXX01 KWBC 290055
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0055 UTC FRI OCT 29 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20101029 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101029  0000   101029  1200   101030  0000   101030  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    26.8N  62.7W   29.1N  64.7W   32.3N  63.6W   35.2N  59.9W
BAMD    26.8N  62.7W   29.3N  64.9W   32.5N  64.4W   36.9N  59.4W
BAMM    26.8N  62.7W   29.0N  65.0W   32.1N  64.6W   35.5N  60.0W
LBAR    26.8N  62.7W   29.7N  64.8W   33.5N  64.2W   38.6N  59.1W
SHIP        35KTS          42KTS          51KTS          59KTS
DSHP        35KTS          42KTS          51KTS          59KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101031  0000   101101  0000   101102  0000   101103  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    37.3N  55.5W   42.1N  46.7W   48.0N  36.7W   54.1N  25.6W
BAMD    42.4N  51.9W   53.1N  25.5W   53.8N   2.3W   58.0N   6.3E
BAMM    39.4N  53.7W   48.6N  36.1W   52.7N   9.5W   55.2N   5.2E
LBAR    45.2N  47.9W   50.0N  33.9W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        64KTS          55KTS          44KTS          37KTS
DSHP        64KTS          55KTS          44KTS          30KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  26.8N LONCUR =  62.7W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR =  22KT
LATM12 =  24.1N LONM12 =  58.7W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 =  20KT
LATM24 =  22.9N LONM24 =  55.3W
WNDCUR =   35KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =   90NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =  90NM
 
$$
NNNN


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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Models

#14 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 28, 2010 9:01 pm

751
WHXX01 KWBC 290149
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0149 UTC FRI OCT 29 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE SHARY (AL202010) 20101029 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
101029 0000 101029 1200 101030 0000 101030 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.8N 62.7W 29.1N 64.7W 32.3N 63.6W 35.2N 59.9W
BAMD 26.8N 62.7W 29.3N 64.9W 32.5N 64.4W 36.9N 59.4W
BAMM 26.8N 62.7W 29.0N 65.0W 32.1N 64.6W 35.5N 60.0W
LBAR 26.8N 62.7W 29.7N 64.8W 33.5N 64.2W 38.6N 59.1W
SHIP 35KTS 42KTS 51KTS 59KTS
DSHP 35KTS 42KTS 51KTS 59KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
101031 0000 101101 0000 101102 0000 101103 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 37.3N 55.5W 42.1N 46.7W 48.0N 36.7W 54.1N 25.6W
BAMD 42.4N 51.9W 53.1N 25.5W 53.8N 2.3W 58.0N 6.3E
BAMM 39.4N 53.7W 48.6N 36.1W 52.7N 9.5W 55.2N 5.2E
LBAR 45.2N 47.9W 50.0N 33.9W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 64KTS 55KTS 44KTS 37KTS
DSHP 64KTS 55KTS 44KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.8N LONCUR = 62.7W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 22KT
LATM12 = 24.1N LONM12 = 58.7W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 22.9N LONM24 = 55.3W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 90NM
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Re: ATL : SHARY - Models

#15 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Thu Oct 28, 2010 9:58 pm

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Re: ATL : SHARY - Models

#16 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Oct 29, 2010 5:40 am

I just want to point out that according to SFWMD, it is very important to know where the second Hebert Box is in relation to Shary lol.
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