ATL : SHARY - Advisories

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ATL : SHARY - Advisories

#1 Postby Florida1118 » Thu Oct 28, 2010 9:59 pm

000
WTNT35 KNHC 290252
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SHARY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010
1100 PM AST THU OCT 28 2010

...YET ANOTHER TROPICAL STORM FORMS...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED
FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 63.7W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SHARY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.7 WEST. SHARY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED EARLY
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SHARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR
OVER BERMUDA LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...SHARY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
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Re: ATL : SHARY - Advisories

#2 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 28, 2010 10:09 pm

WTNT45 KNHC 290254
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010
1100 PM AST THU OCT 28 2010

SATELLITE...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAS
BECOME BETTER DEFINED. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZED
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY AND HAS ENOUGH ORGANIZATION
TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE
HAS PASSED JUST SOUTHWEST OF NOAA BUOY 41049 DURING THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS. THE BUOY REPORTED PEAK 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 33 KT
AT BOTH 0000 AND 0200 UTC. BASED ON THE WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
BUOY...THE SYSTEM IS STARTED AS A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM....THE
EIGHTEENTH OF THE 2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. SINCE THERE IS
ENOUGH SEPARATION BETWEEN SHARY AND THE UPPER-LOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST...AND THERE IS A SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...THE
SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL RATHER THAN A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/20. IT APPEARS THAT
THE CENTER HAS REFORMED TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE A MORE PRECISE MOTION.
SHARY HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ITS SOUTHWEST. THE TROPICAL STORM IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
FUTURE FORWARD SPEED OF SHARY. THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ARE
SLOWER THAN THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND HWRF. FOR NOW THE SLOWER
SOLUTION IS PREFERRED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

IT APPEARS THAT SHARY WILL BE A RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL
CYCLONE. MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING. AFTER 24 HOURS...SHARY WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT. THE GLOBAL
MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. IN FACT...THEY INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE
SHOULD WEAKEN IN 3-4 DAYS AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 27.3N 63.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 29.6N 65.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 32.8N 63.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 35.5N 60.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT 31/0000Z 39.3N 54.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 01/0000Z 43.5N 45.0W 30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
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Re: ATL : SHARY - Advisories

#3 Postby Florida1118 » Thu Oct 28, 2010 10:15 pm

000
WTNT25 KNHC 290252
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM SHARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010
0300 UTC FRI OCT 29 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 63.7W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 63.7W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 62.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 29.6N 65.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 32.8N 63.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 35.5N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 39.3N 54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 43.5N 45.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 63.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
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Re: ATL : SHARY - Advisories

#4 Postby Florida1118 » Fri Oct 29, 2010 12:50 am

000
WTNT35 KNHC 290540
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SHARY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010
200 AM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

...SHARY MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 64.5W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SHARY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST. SHARY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SHARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR
OVER BERMUDA LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...SHARY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
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Re: ATL : SHARY - Advisories

#5 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 29, 2010 6:46 am

000
WTNT35 KNHC 291143
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SHARY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010
800 AM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

...SHARY EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 65.7W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SHARY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST. SHARY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY
...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF SHARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR TO THE EAST
OF BERMUDA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH WEAKENING LIKELY
OVER THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA THIS
AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...SHARY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
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Re: ATL : SHARY - Advisories

#6 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 29, 2010 9:37 am

WTNT45 KNHC 291436
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010
1100 AM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SHARY HAS SLOWED DOWN CONSIDERABLY
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AS A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS DROPPED TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE
VERTICAL SHEAR SHIFTING FROM AN EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY DIRECTION...
CAUSING THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. DRY AIR NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS ALSO
WRAPPED INTO THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS...RESULTING IN
EROSION OF CONVECTION IN THOSE AREAS. THE INITIAL ESTIMATE REMAINS
AT 35 KT FOR THIS BASED ON SHEAR-PATTERN SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.0/45 KT FROM SAB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/04. SHARY IS POSSIBLY PREPARING
TO MAKE A SHARP CUSP IN THE TRACK...AND A TURN TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS THE SMALL
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN INFLUENCING THE SHORT TERM MOTION
WEAKENS AND/OR DISSIPATES. AFTER THAT...AN EASTWARD-MOVING
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF THE U.S. EAST
COAST AND EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO CAPTURE THE
CYCLONE BY 24 HOURS...AND ACCELERATE SHARY RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS
TRACK SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR JUST MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD
SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME AND REMAIN BELOW 10
KT FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS WHILE SHARY REMAINS OVER MARGINAL SSTS
NEAR 26C. THE LOW SHEAR AND COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AS NOTED IN THE 11Z BERMUDA UPPER-AIR SOUNDING...SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO RE-DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER...RESULTING
IN SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING. BY 24 HOURS AND BEYOND...HOWEVER...
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KT SHOULD KICK IN AND HELP THE
CYCLONE TO TRANSITION INTO A POST-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS
THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. THE GFDL AND
HWRF MODELS MAKE SHARY A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WHICH SEEMS
EXCESSIVE GIVEN THE VERY COOL SSTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING
OVER AT THAT TIME. AS A RESULT...THOSE INTENSITY FORECAST SCENARIOS
HAVE BEEN DISCOUNTED. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 29.6N 66.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 32.2N 64.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 35.6N 60.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 31/0000Z 39.9N 52.9W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT 31/1200Z 45.0N 43.5W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL : SHARY - Advisories

#7 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 29, 2010 12:45 pm

000
WTNT35 KNHC 291743
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SHARY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010
200 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

...SHARY STRENGTHENS...NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 65.8W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...90 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 015 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SHARY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST. SHARY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF SHARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST EAST
OF BERMUDA TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

RECENT SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...90 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO PROVIDE A
BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY OF SHARY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES...160 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...SHARY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
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Re: ATL : SHARY - Advisories

#8 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 29, 2010 3:59 pm

WTNT35 KNHC 292054
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SHARY ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010
500 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

...SHARY STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE OVER BERMUDA THIS EVENING....


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 65.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SHARY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST. SHARY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
SHARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST EAST OF BERMUDA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SHARY IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...SHARY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
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Re: ATL : SHARY - Advisories

#9 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 29, 2010 6:50 pm

000
WTNT35 KNHC 292345
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SHARY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010
800 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS....EXPECTED
TO PASS EAST OF BERMUDA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 64.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SHARY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST. SHARY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
SHARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF BERMUDA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE ON SATURDAY AS THE
SYSTEM TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...SHARY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN
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#10 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 29, 2010 9:38 pm

749
WTNT45 KNHC 300237
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010
1100 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED THIS EVENING AND HAS EXPANDED A BIT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CYCLONE.
EARLIER REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WITHIN THIS PARTICULAR AREA WERE 73 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL...AND 60 KT
BASED ON AN SFMR WIND ESTIMATION. CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SHARY IS MOVING
WITHIN A REGION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR...NOW 20-30 KT...AND
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SHEAR
ALONG WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD INDUCE A
WEAKENING TREND DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING
BERMUDA...AND INTERACTION WITH SHARY SHOULD BEGIN LATER TONIGHT.
THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE EVOLUTION DIAGRAMS FOR THE GFS/UKMET/CMC
UNANIMOUSLY AGREE THAT SHARY WILL COMPLETE THE TRANSITION TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHEASTWARD...050/18. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITHIN THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MAKES ITS
TRANSITION TO A NON-TROPICAL LOW. THE LIFE EXPECTANCY OF
POST-TROPICAL SHARY SHOULD BE SHORT...AS ALL OF THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL
ZONE IN 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND THE UKMET...AND IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0300Z 31.9N 63.3W 60 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 34.5N 59.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 31/0000Z 38.2N 51.7W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36HR VT 31/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN
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#11 Postby Extratropical94 » Sat Oct 30, 2010 4:59 am

000
WTNT35 KNHC 300835
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SHARY ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010
500 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

...SHARY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 59.4W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 965 MI...1550 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SHARY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 33.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.4 WEST. SHARY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH...56 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES BY
LATE TOMORROW.

MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED
TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SHARY IS A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE LATER TODAY...WITH SHARY LIKELY
LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS EARLY TOMORROW.

SHARY IS A SMALL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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#12 Postby Extratropical94 » Sat Oct 30, 2010 4:59 am

000
WTNT45 KNHC 300836
TCDAT5
HURRICANE SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010
500 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

SHARY POSES A BIT OF A CONUNDRUM THIS MORNING. THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO GROW AND BECOME
MORE SYMMETRIC NEAR THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...TRMM PASSES FROM
OVERNIGHT INDICATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL EYE FEATURE IN THE
37-GHZ CHANNEL. WHILE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE HIGHER THAN EARLIER
...THEY ARE FAR FROM SUPPORTING HURRICANE INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH
THESE SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE CLEARLY NOT HANDLING THIS SYSTEM WELL.
THE DEEPENING OF CONVECTION AND THE EYE FEATURE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SUGGEST A FURTHER ORGANIZATION OF SHARY AND AT LEAST A NOMINAL
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED FROM THE 60 KT OBSERVED FROM THE AIRCRAFT.
NORMALLY A 5-KT WIND ADJUSTMENT WOULD NOT REQUIRE THIS MUCH
DISCUSSION...BUT A CHANGE IN STATUS DOES COMPLICATE MATTERS. IT IS
HARD TO DISCOUNT THE LARGE CONVECTIVE INCREASE AND THE SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT ON MICROWAVE IMAGES SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED...THUS
THE INITIAL WINDS ARE NUDGED UPWARD TO 65 KT. THIS IS A GOOD CASE
OF A SMALL HURRICANE THAT WAS VERY UNLIKELY TO BE OBSERVED BEFORE
THE RECENT ERA WHEN MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS AVAILABLE.

THE TRMM PASSES AND GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
SHARY HAS ACCELERATED CONSIDERABLY AND IS NOW SPEEDING
NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 30 KT. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN SOUTHWESTERLY
MID-LATITUDE FLOW. A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY APPROACHING SHARY IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW
WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE ABSORBING THE CYCLONE BY 36 HOURS. THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS TRANSITION...AND THE
NEW FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL
MOTION AND THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE. SHARY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN
SOON DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR AS IT MOVES OVER WATERS COOLER THAN
76F. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER INITIAL WINDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0900Z 33.6N 59.4W 65 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 35.7N 54.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 31/0600Z 38.5N 48.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36HR VT 31/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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#13 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 30, 2010 9:35 am

509
WTNT25 KNHC 301432
TCMAT5
HURRICANE SHARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010
1500 UTC SAT OCT 30 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 55.6W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 35 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 90SE 75SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 45SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 55.6W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 57.2W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 38.0N 50.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.9N 55.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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#14 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 30, 2010 9:39 am

699
WTNT45 KNHC 301436
TCDAT5
HURRICANE SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

SHARY REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
SHARY HAS MAINTAINED A SMALL EYE...ESPECIALLY IN THE 85-GHZ
CHANNEL. ALTHOUGH INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT DEEP CONVECTION
HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SHARY IS BEING
HELD AT HURRICANE STRENGTH FOR THIS ADVISORY DUE TO THE MICROWAVE
PRESENTATION AND THE FAST FORWARD SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE
WILL LIKELY WEAKEN TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO EVEN STRONGER SHEAR AND
OVER COOLER WATER. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW SHARY INTERACTING
WITH THE FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING ABSORBED ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UKMET AND
NOGAPS MODELS SHOW LESS INTERACTION WITH THE FRONT AND MOVE SHARY
SLOWLY EASTWARD. THE LATTER SOLUTIONS APPEAR UNREALISTIC GIVEN THE
CURRENT PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE USUALLY MORE RELIABLE GFS/ECMWF MODELS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS RACING NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
055/35. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL SHARY BECOMES
ABSORBED ALONG THE FRONT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/1500Z 35.9N 55.6W 65 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 38.0N 50.5W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24HR VT 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Re: ATL : SHARY - Advisories

#15 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 30, 2010 3:35 pm

Last Advisory

TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010
500 PM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT IS NOW
INTERACTING WITH SHARY AND THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS
SUGGEST THAT CYCLONE HAS TRANSITIONED TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.
BASED ON THESE DATA...SHARY IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS STORM
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

THE POST-TROPICAL STORM IS RACING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 42 KT.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CYCLONE BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THE FRONT WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 39.2N 50.9W 60 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 42.8N 44.2W 55 KT...DISSIPATED
24HR VT 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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