SEIO (W. AUS): Tropical Cyclone Anggrek

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#41 Postby Chacor » Mon Nov 01, 2010 2:59 am

AXAU01 APRF 010713
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0712 UTC 01/11/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 10.6S
Longitude: 97.5E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [160 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 989 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/S0.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 01/1800: 11.6S 97.7E: 080 [150]: 060 [110]: 982
+24: 02/0600: 12.1S 97.4E: 100 [185]: 070 [130]: 974
+36: 02/1800: 12.7S 96.7E: 130 [240]: 080 [150]: 966
+48: 03/0600: 13.2S 95.8E: 160 [295]: 070 [130]: 974
+60: 03/1800: 13.6S 94.8E: 190 [350]: 065 [120]: 978
+72: 04/0600: 13.9S 93.2E: 220 [405]: 055 [100]: 986
REMARKS:
The system was located using an SSMIS pass at 0135Z together with animated IR,
NIR and VIS imagery. The location of the centre is not too clear so the
uncertainty of the position has been increased to 60nm. Shear appears to be
decreasing and a curved band may be developing. Attempts to apply a curved band
pattern give a curvature between 0.5/0.8, resulting in a DT of 3.0. A shear
pattern in the VIS imagery yields a similar result, but a shear pattern doesn't
appear as applicable now. No recent SATCON is available.

The MET is 3.5 based on a 24 hour trend of D-. Pattern matching indicates no
adjustment hence DT is 3.0 and MET/PAT are 3.5. The final wind intensity
estimate is assigned at 50 knots.

Shear over the system appears to be diminishing, and the upper flow is markedly
diffluent. Conditions are forecast to become more favourable during the
remainder of today with shear forecast to diminish further and an outflow
channel likely to become better established to the south.

Based on the expected conditions, and in general agreement with the trend in NWP
and STIPS, the system is forecast to reach hurricane intensity during Tuesday.

The spread of model guidance indicates the Cocos Islands have a high risk of
impact from hurricane force winds during Tuesday.

As the system passes south of 12S the ocean heat content becomes marginal. The
system is also likely to encounter more stable boundary layer air in the wake of
the mid latitude system. Hence the system is expected to weaken as it moves off
to the southwest on Wednesday. STIPS is consistent with this but some NWP
guidance do not weaken the system until later.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued at: 01/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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#42 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 01, 2010 7:12 am

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#43 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 01, 2010 1:16 pm

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#44 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 01, 2010 1:19 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 18
Issued at 11:39 pm WST on Monday 1 November 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for people on the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

At 11:00 pm WST (9:30pm Cocos local time) Tropical Cyclone Anggrek, Category 2,
was estimated to be
190 kilometres northeast of Cocos Island and
moving south southeast at 10 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is expected to intensify during Tuesday as it moves
southwards towards the Cocos Islands. Squalls on the islands will gradually get
stronger with periods of gale force winds likely to develop during Tuesday.

With the cyclone expected to curve around towards the west on Tuesday it is
likely to be close to Cocos for an extended period. If the cyclone passes close
by VERY DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts will occur and tides are likely to rise above
the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and flooding of low lying areas.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Anggrek at 11:00 pm WST (9:30pm Cocos local time):
.Centre located near...... 11.0 degrees South 98.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 10 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 987 hectoPascals

The Australian Federal Police advise that Red Alert Status is now in force.

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Tuesday 02 November.

This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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#45 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 01, 2010 9:59 pm

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#46 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 02, 2010 6:55 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 24
Issued at 5:42 pm WST on Tuesday 2 November 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for people on the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

At 5:00 pm WST (3:30pm Cocos local time) Tropical Cyclone Anggrek, Category 1,
was estimated to be
140 kilometres east southeast of Cocos Island and
moving south southwest at 9 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek has weakened to a Category 1 system during today, and
is now located to the east southeast of the Cocos Islands and moving towards
the south southwest. The cyclone may strengthen a little again overnight and
return to Category 2 intensity.

The cyclone is expected to take a southwestwards track overnight Tuesday, which
may take it a little closer to Cocos. Squalls on the islands will continue,
with a small chance of gale force winds possible overnight Tuesday as the
cyclone passes to the south.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Anggrek at 5:00 pm WST (3:30pm Cocos local time):
.Centre located near...... 12.7 degrees South 98.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 9 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 120 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 992 hectoPascals

The Australian Federal Police advise that All Clear With Caution has been
declared.

The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Tuesday 02 November.

This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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Re: SEIO (W. AUS): Tropical Cyclone Anggrek

#47 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Tue Nov 02, 2010 7:09 am

Image


Image




A Cyclone WARNING continues for people on the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

At 5:00 pm WST (3:30pm Cocos local time) Tropical Cyclone Anggrek, Category 1,
was estimated to be
140 kilometres east southeast of Cocos Island and
moving south southwest at 9 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek has weakened to a Category 1 system during today, and
is now located to the east southeast of the Cocos Islands and moving towards
the south southwest. The cyclone may strengthen a little again overnight and
return to Category 2 intensity.

The cyclone is expected to take a southwestwards track overnight Tuesday, which
may take it a little closer to Cocos. Squalls on the islands will continue,
with a small chance of gale force winds possible overnight Tuesday as the
cyclone passes to the south.
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#48 Postby Chacor » Tue Nov 02, 2010 8:08 am

Down to 45 kt sustained:

AXAU01 APRF 021246
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1246 UTC 02/11/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 12.9S
Longitude: 97.9E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [206 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/W0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 03/0000: 13.8S 97.4E: 075 [140]: 050 [095]: 987
+24: 03/1200: 14.5S 96.4E: 105 [195]: 050 [095]: 987
+36: 04/0000: 14.9S 95.0E: 140 [255]: 045 [085]: 991
+48: 04/1200: 15.4S 93.4E: 170 [315]: 040 [075]: 994
+60: 05/0000: 16.1S 91.4E: 220 [405]: 035 [065]: 997
+72: 05/1200: 17.6S 90.0E: 265 [490]: 030 [055]: 1000
REMARKS:
The system was located by microwave, IR and VIS imagery, but still remains
difficult to pinpoint with any degree of certainty. The shear affecting the
system appears to be decreasing and the cloud signature has improved slightly
over the last few hours with a curved band appearing to be developing.

A shear pattern is no longer applicable to the system. A curved band pattern
yields a DT of 3.0. The 24 hour trend for the system indicates little change,
which yields a MET of 3.5. PAT is assigned as 3.0. Given the cloud features are
reasonably clear cut then FT=DT=3.0.

The system is now located to the southeast of Cocos Islands. It is forecast to
take a more southwesterly track but it is unlikely to pass close enough to the
islands to produce anything more than a short period of gale force winds.

As the system is now south of 12S the ocean heat content will become marginal.
The system is also likely to encounter more stable boundary layer air in the
wake of the mid latitude system, with an increase in shear. Hence the system is
expected to weaken as it moves off to the southwest on Wednesday. STIPS is
consistent with this.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued at: 02/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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#49 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 02, 2010 11:15 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 26
Issued at 11:43 pm WST on Tuesday 2 November 2010

The Cyclone WARNING for the Cocos Islands has been cancelled.

At 11:00 pm WST (9:30pm Cocos local time) Tropical Cyclone Anggrek, Category 1,
was estimated to be
140 kilometres southeast of Cocos Island and
moving south southwest at 9 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is currently a Category 1 cyclone. The system is now
located to the southeast of the Cocos Islands and is moving further away with
gales no longer expected to affect the Cocos Islands.

In the longer term the system is expected to continue to move to the south west
and eventually weaken.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Anggrek at 11:00 pm WST (9:30pm Cocos local time):
.Centre located near...... 13.0 degrees South 97.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 9 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 120 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 990 hectoPascals

The Australian Federal Police advise that All Clear With Caution has been
declared.

No further advices will be issued for this system unless it moves closer to the
Cocos Islands.

This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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#50 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 02, 2010 1:44 pm

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Re: SEIO (W. AUS): Tropical Cyclone Anggrek

#51 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 02, 2010 10:25 pm

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Re: SEIO (W. AUS): Tropical Cyclone Anggrek

#52 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 02, 2010 10:26 pm

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0205UTC 3 NOVEMBER 2010

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal nine south (13.9S)
longitude ninety seven decimal four east (97.4E)
Recent movement : southwest at 7 knots
Maximum winds : 40 knots
Central pressure: 996 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 30 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 30 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Winds above 34 knots reaching 40 knots near the centre, with rough to very
rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 03 November: Within 60 nautical miles of 14.5 south 96.2 east
Central pressure 995 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 04 November: Within 90 nautical miles of 14.9 south 94.8 east
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 03 November 2010.

WEATHER PERTH
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#53 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 02, 2010 10:30 pm

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#54 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 02, 2010 10:32 pm

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WTXS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 13.4S 97.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 97.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 14.4S 97.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.2S 95.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 16.0S 94.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.8S 93.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.8S 91.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 97.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 95 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 021402Z SSMIS 91H MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT TIGHTLY CURVED LOW
LEVEL BANDING WITH WEAKENING CENTRAL CONVECTION SHEARED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS FROM KNES,
PGTW, AND APRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 02S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS
EXPECTED TO TURN WEST OF SOUTH BY TAU 12 AS A WESTERN EXTENSION OF
THE STEERING RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AS TC ANGGREK TRACKS
SOUTHWESTWARD, DECREASED SST'S, MARGINAL OHC, AND INCREASED VWS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO STEADLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF WBAR, WHICH CONTINUES TO TRACK THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF MODEL CONSENSUS
TO ACCOUNT FOR WBAR AND REMAINS WITHIN THE TIGHT MODEL ENVELOPE
CONSISTING OF ECMWF, JGSM, NGPS, GFDN, GFDN, AND GFS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030900Z AND 032100Z.//
NNNN
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#55 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Tue Nov 02, 2010 10:56 pm

I like fish storms like this, small effect on land and eventually dspts over the ocean.
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#56 Postby Chacor » Wed Nov 03, 2010 6:46 am

40 kt from Perth:

AXAU01 APRF 030642
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0642 UTC 03/11/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 14.2S
Longitude: 97.0E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [237 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 300 nm [555 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 03/1800: 14.7S 95.7E: 060 [110]: 040 [075]: 996
+24: 04/0600: 15.0S 94.1E: 090 [165]: 035 [065]: 999
+36: 04/1800: 15.6S 92.2E: 120 [225]: 035 [065]: 999
+48: 05/0600: 16.6S 90.4E: 155 [285]: 030 [055]: 1002
+60: 05/1800: 18.7S 89.4E: 200 [375]: 025 [045]: 1007
+72: 06/0600: 22.7S 90.1E: 250 [465]: 025 [045]: 1007
REMARKS:
Microwave imagery at 1402, 1854, 2052 and 2212 have provided confidence in the
overnight fix positions. The VIS imagery gives a reasonably clear cut banding of
0.6 yielding a DT of 3.0. The MET/PAT agree and FT is set at 3.0.

This mornings shear analysis shows the shear has become light however the system
is now over margnal SSTs with a shallow 26 degree isotherm. Deep convection is
confined to southern quadrants and it is likely that gales will also become
confined to the southern quadrants over the next 24 hours.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued at: 03/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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#57 Postby Chacor » Wed Nov 03, 2010 8:13 am

AXAU01 APRF 031236
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1236 UTC 03/11/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 14.7S
Longitude: 96.7E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [227 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [14 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 300 nm [555 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 04/0000: 15.4S 95.6E: 060 [110]: 035 [065]: 1001
+24: 04/1200: 15.6S 93.8E: 090 [165]: 035 [065]: 1001
+36: 05/0000: 16.3S 91.5E: 120 [225]: 030 [055]: 1004
+48: 05/1200: 17.7S 89.8E: 155 [285]: 025 [045]: 1006
+60: 06/0000: 20.4S 89.4E: 200 [375]: 025 [045]: 1008
+72: 06/1200: 25.1S 90.8E: 250 [465]: 025 [045]: 1007
REMARKS:
Microwave imagery at 0708 UTC gave a good location fix and showed the low level
centre exposed with convection in southern quadrants. The pattern T has become
difficult to assign. The 24 hour trend shows weakening so MET is 2.0, with
adjustment FT=PT=2.5 with CI being held a half T number higher at 3.0. This is
in good agreement with SATCON and other model intensity guidance.

Shear has remained light however the system is now over marginal SSTs with a
shallow 26 degree isotherm. It is likely that gales will become confined to the
southern quadrants over the next 24 to 36 hours as the system continues to
weaken.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued at: 03/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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#58 Postby Chacor » Thu Nov 04, 2010 6:00 am

JTWC issues last warning:

WTXS31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 15.2S 94.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 94.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 15.9S 92.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.4S 91.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 94.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30
KNOTS NO LONGER MEETS THE WARNING CRITERIA FOR SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
SYSTEMS. THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON FALLING T-
NUMBERS FROM PGTW. CURRENTLY PGTW IS REPORTING A 2.0/2.5, WHICH
INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED TO 30 - 35 KNOTS. MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS LEFT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
PARTIALLY EXPOSED. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD
WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TOWARDS HIGHER VWS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
WATER. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
040600Z IS 11 FEET.//
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#59 Postby Chacor » Thu Nov 04, 2010 6:00 am

BOM agrees:
AXAU01 APRF 040926
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0926 UTC 04/11/2010
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Anggrek
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.3S
Longitude: 95.5E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [233 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1003 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.5/W1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 04/1200: 15.8S 94.4E: 060 [110]: 030 [055]: 1003
+24: 05/0000: 16.4S 92.7E: 090 [165]: 030 [055]: 1004
+36: 05/1200: 18.0S 91.2E: 120 [225]: 030 [055]: 1005
+48: 06/0000: 20.7S 91.2E: 155 [285]: 030 [055]: 1005
+60: 06/1200: 25.1S 92.9E: 200 [375]: 030 [055]: 1004
+72: 07/0000: 30.0S 95.0E: 250 [465]: 030 [055]: 1001
REMARKS:
The system has weakened significantly overnight and is now below cyclone
intensity.

Microwave imagery overnight assisted in locating the centre and showed very
little deep convection near the centre.

Dvorak: Difficult to assign DT. MET is 1.5 based on a trend of W+, PAT is 2.0.
FT is 2.0 and CI set to 2.5.

ASCAT pass at 1533 UTC showed 30 knot winds in the southern and eastern
quadrants. Gales are still possible in southern quadrants as the system
continues to weaken and move to the west southwest.




Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it reintensifies.
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#60 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Nov 05, 2010 6:27 am

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