SEIO (W. AUS): Tropical Cyclone Anggrek

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SEIO (W. AUS): Tropical Cyclone Anggrek

#1 Postby Chacor » Fri Oct 29, 2010 7:01 am

Image

This is in TCWC Jakarta's area of responsibility, just a tad north of the border with TCWC Perth's area. Should be moving into Perth's area around Monday and Perth are issuing outlooks:

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00pm WST on Friday the 29th of October 2010
Valid until midnight WST Monday


Existing Cyclones in the Western region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A low has developed near 7.5S 99E. The low is expected to move towards the
southwest and be located south of latitude 10S on Monday. The low is likely to
develop, possibly reaching tropical cyclone intensity on Sunday or Monday. While
there is a high probability [over 50%] that the low will become a cyclone on
Sunday, the likelihood that it will remain north of latitude 10S reduces the
chance that it will be a cyclone in the Western Region on that day.

This system may pass close to Cocos Island early next week.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Saturday :Low
Sunday :Moderate
Monday :High

No other significant lows are expected to develop over the next three days.


NOTES: Development Potential is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of Latitude 10S.
Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/

Unfortunately I can't find any outlooks on this system from Jakarta.
Last edited by Chacor on Sun Oct 31, 2010 12:05 am, edited 5 times in total.
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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 29, 2010 3:02 pm

Image

Looking much better
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Re: SEIO (W. AUS): INVEST 92S

#3 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 29, 2010 3:08 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.7S 97.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTH OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291233Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT IMPROVED
CONSOLIDATION AND MULTIPLE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 290304Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED A WELL
DEFINED LLCC WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
AND 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE LLCC IS
LOCATED NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER EASTERLY DIFFLUENT
FLOW. THE LLCC IS ALSO LOCATED UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND OUTFLOW IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO DAYS,
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR
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#4 Postby KWT » Fri Oct 29, 2010 4:53 pm

Convection looks like its trying to wrap around at the moment so yeah it is starting to look a little better.
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#5 Postby Chacor » Fri Oct 29, 2010 9:36 pm

IDW24400
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 9:12 am WST on Saturday 30 October 2010

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for the Cocos
(Keeling) Islands.


At 8:00 am WST a Tropical Low was estimated to be
530 kilometres north of Cocos Island and
moving west at 11 kilometres per hour.

The low is forecast to develop into a tropical cyclone today or early on
Sunday. Although it is currently moving westwards, it is expected to take a
southwards turn, and is likely to pass close to Cocos Island on Tuesday.
Conditions are favourable for intensification and Cocos Island is at risk of
impact from a Severe Tropical Cyclone.


Gales are not expected on the islands during the weekend, but may develop by
sunrise on Monday as the system moves closer and intensifies.

Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 7.5 degrees South 96.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 11 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1002 hectoPascals

The Australian Federal Police advise that tthere are no community alerts at
present. Communities on Home and West Island should listen for the next advice.
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Saturday 30 October.

This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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#6 Postby Chacor » Fri Oct 29, 2010 9:39 pm

WTXS21 PGTW 292200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.5S 97.4E TO 10.5S 94.9E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 292130Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.9S 96.7E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.7S
97.1E IS NOW LOCATED AT 7.9S 96.7E APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTH OF THE
COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291917Z
AMSR-E IMAGE DEPICT IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND MULTIPLE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
PARTIAL 291539Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE LLCC IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS UNDER EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE LLCC IS ALSO LOCATED
UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND OUTFLOW IS GOOD. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO DAYS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
302200Z.//
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#7 Postby Chacor » Fri Oct 29, 2010 9:44 pm

Latest from Perth:

AXAU01 APRF 300239
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0238 UTC 30/10/2010
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 7.5S
Longitude: 96.0E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: west [270 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Dvorak Intensity Code: D2.5/2.5D1.5/1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 30/1200: 7.9S 94.9E: 050 [095]: 040 [075]: 997
+24: 31/0000: 8.2S 94.5E: 070 [130]: 050 [095]: 990
+36: 31/1200: 8.6S 94.6E: 105 [195]: 060 [110]: 983
+48: 01/0000: 9.3S 95.2E: 140 [260]: 070 [130]: 976
+60: 01/1200: 10.2S 95.7E: 180 [335]: 080 [150]: 968
+72: 02/0000: 11.2S 95.9E: 220 [405]: 085 [155]: 963
REMARKS:
The system has significantly improved organisation over the last 24 hours,
despite continuing moderate shear. High SSTs are likely assisting the low to
overcome the shear, and low to mid level curvature of the cloud lines has
improved markedly in microwave imagery together with a consolidation of the
central overcast. At 00Z I have a position near 7.5S 96.0E. The SSMI/S image at
2231Z was particularly useful but this position also appears to place the LLCC
in a position relative to the CDO that is generally consistent with amount of
shear indicated in CIMSS satellite wind analyses, and with the 0030 MTSAT VIS
image that has become available since I analysed that position.

Using a shear pattern gives a DT of around T3.0 but the MET is at 2.5 based on a
D+ 24 hour trend and yesterdays assignment of T1.0 at 00Z. The rules will limit
the FT to 2.5 and this is the assigned CI. The 1530Z ASCAT pass indicated 30
knot winds in the SW quadrant [the only sector it sampled but also the sector
with the greatest convection], and the intensity is analysed as being 30 knots
at 00Z consistent with the Dvorak analysis. Given the rate of development over
the last 24 hours the system is likely to reach cyclone intensity later today.


Shear conditions are forecast to become more favourable while the system remains
over warm waters [>28C north of 10S]. The mid latitude system passing to the
south erodes the mid level ridge and results in a recurvature to the southeast
during Sunday. This also brings the system under the ridge into light shear and
by Sunday evening the system should be experiencing quite favourable conditions.
The development of the system in the South China Sea should not be detrimental
to this system so based on the expected conditions, and consistent with the
trend in STIPS intensity guidance it is forecast to reach hurricane force on
Monday.
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Re: SEIO (W. AUS): Tropical Low 01U (INVEST 92S TCFA)

#8 Postby Macrocane » Fri Oct 29, 2010 10:21 pm

This already looks like a tropical storm to me, very early start of the SWI Ocean and now the Australian regions as well.
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#9 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 29, 2010 11:05 pm

Image

Latest
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#10 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 29, 2010 11:08 pm

Image

Track - Next name is Tasha
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#11 Postby Chacor » Fri Oct 29, 2010 11:19 pm

Actually, the next name is Anggrek. This is in Jakarta's area.
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Re:

#12 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 29, 2010 11:22 pm

Chacor wrote:Actually, the next name is Anggrek. This is in Jakarta's area.


Correct, got confused
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#13 Postby Chacor » Fri Oct 29, 2010 11:25 pm

That said it really wouldn't surprise me if Perth named it anyway, since Jakarta don't seem to be caring about this.
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Re: SEIO (W. AUS): Tropical Low 01U (INVEST 92S TCFA)

#14 Postby somethingfunny » Sat Oct 30, 2010 12:10 am

I've always wondered this.

Why is Jakarta an RSMC? I have never heard of a cyclone threatening Indonesia aside from rare exceptions like Typhoon Vamei (which was outside Jakarta's area of responsibility) Similarly why is Port Moresby an RSMC and why are there separate offices for Perth, Darwin, and Brisbane....wouldn't it be much easier if Darwin were in charge of the entire area?

Reunion, Darwin, and Fiji could handle the entire Southern Hemisphere as the Northern Hemisphere is handled by Miami, Honolulu, Tokyo, and New Delhi. Why all the tiny backwater RSMCs in the South?
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#15 Postby Chacor » Sat Oct 30, 2010 12:42 am

They're not RSMCs, they're TCWCs which are on a lesser scale. They only have responsibility for tropical cyclone warnings in their areas; the RSMCs, as the name suggests, are in charge of all meteorology.

Also, TCs do threaten Indonesia from time to time, especially when they form in the Arafura Sea.
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#16 Postby senorpepr » Sat Oct 30, 2010 4:54 am

AXAU01 APRF 300946
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0945 UTC 30/10/2010
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 7.7S
Longitude: 96.0E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: west [260 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: N/A
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5 6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 30/1800: 8.0S 95.3E: 050 [095]: 045 [085]: 993
+24: 31/0600: 8.4S 95.1E: 070 [130]: 055 [100]: 986
+36: 31/1800: 9.0S 95.5E: 105 [195]: 065 [120]: 980
+48: 01/0600: 9.8S 96.1E: 140 [260]: 075 [140]: 972
+60: 01/1800: 10.6S 96.4E: 180 [335]: 080 [150]: 967
+72: 02/0600: 11.7S 96.5E: 220 [405]: 085 [155]: 963
REMARKS:
The system has significantly improved organisation over the last 24 hours,
despite continuing moderate shear. High SSTs are likely assisting the low to
overcome the shear, and low to mid level curvature of the cloud lines has
improved markedly in microwave imagery together with a consolidation of the
central overcast.

Using a shear pattern consistently gives a DT of around T3.0 over the last 3
available images. The MET is at 3.0 based on a 24 hour trend of D+ and
yesterdays assignment of T1.0 at 00Z. Pattern matching does not indicate any
adjustment to the MET and hence both DT and MET are 3.0. There are no FT
constraints to assigning 3.0 hence FT and CI are set at 3.0. The 0244Z ASCAT
pass indicates 25-30 knots in the western semicircle, however given the
previously reported low bias of ASCAT it is possible that winds in this region
are 30-35 knots. The final wind intensity estimate is assigned at 30 knots. This
system is considered to be very close to TC intensity and gales are likely to
extend around the LLCC during the next diurnally favourable period overnight.

Shear conditions are forecast to become more favourable during Sunday and the
system will remain over SST>28C. The mid latitude system passing to the south
erodes the mid level ridge and results in a recurvature to the southeast during
Sunday. This also brings the system under the ridge into light shear and by
Sunday evening the system should be experiencing quite favourable conditions.
The development of the system in the South China Sea should not be detrimental
to this system so based on the expected conditions, and consistent with the
trend in STIPS intensity guidance it is forecast to reach hurricane force on
Monday.

The spread of model guidance indicates the Cocos Islands has a high risk of
impact from hurricane force winds.

As the system passes south of 12S the ocean heat content becomes marginal. The
system is also likely to encounter more stable boundary layer air in the wake of
the mid latitude system. Hence the system is expected to weaken as it moves off
to the southwest on Wednesday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued at: 30/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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Re: SEIO (W. AUS): Tropical Low 01U (INVEST 92S TCFA)

#17 Postby P.K. » Sat Oct 30, 2010 5:19 am

IDJ20060
INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

SECURITE

OCEAN GALE WARNING

OCEAN GALE WARNING FOR AREA 0 90E, 10S 90E, 10S 120E, 11S 120E, 11S 125E, 9S125E, 9S 141E, and 0 141E
Issued by JAKARTA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
At: 10:12 UTC 30 October 2010

SITUATION
At 06:00 UTC Tropical Depression 92S 997 hPa was within 30 nautical miles of 7.8 S 95.5 E moving west northwest at 5 knots.

This tropical depression may develop into a Tropical Cyclone in the next 6-12 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds reaching 30 knots expected to increase to 50 knots in the next 24 hours.
High seas may exceed Rough to Very Rough scale and rising swell.

18:00 UTC 30 October: Within 40 nautical miles of 8.1 S 95.2 E
Central pressure 995 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 45 knots near centre.
06:00 UTC 31 October: Within 90 nautical miles of 8.4 S 94.9 E
Central pressure 986 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
Ships please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.
Next warning will be issued by 13:00 UTC 30 October 2010.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre JAKARTA
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Re: SEIO (W. AUS): Tropical Low 01U (INVEST 92S TCFA)

#18 Postby Alacane2 » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:39 am

IDW24400
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued at 2:49 pm WST on Saturday 30 October 2010

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for the Cocos
(Keeling) Islands.

At 2:00 pm WST a Tropical Low was estimated to be
510 kilometres north of Cocos Island and moving west at 7 kilometres per hour.

The low is forecast to develop into a tropical cyclone later today or early on
Sunday. Although it is currently moving westwards, it is expected to take a
southwards turn, and is likely to pass close to the Cocos Islands on Tuesday.
Conditions are favourable for intensification and there is a significant risk
that people on the Cocos Islands will experience VERY DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts.

Gales are not expected on the islands during Saturday or Sunday, but may
develop on before sunrise on Monday as the system moves closer and intensifies.
The period of greatest risk will commence on Monday evening, with the system
likely to pass close to the islands during Tuesday.

Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 7.7 degrees South 96.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 7 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1002 hectoPascals

The Australian Federal Police advise a BLUE ALERT for communities on Home and
West Island. People need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an
emergency kit including a first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare
batteries, food and water.

People on the Cocos Islands should tune in to 6CKI or the ABC and listen for
the next advice.
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Saturday 30 October.

This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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#19 Postby Alacane2 » Sat Oct 30, 2010 8:23 am

IDW24400
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued at 8:46 pm WST on Saturday 30 October 2010

A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for the Cocos (Keeling)
Islands.

At 8:00 pm WST a tropical low was estimated to be
505 kilometres north northwest of Cocos Island and moving west southwest at 8
kilometres per hour.

The low is forecast to develop into a tropical cyclone early on Sunday.
Although it is currently moving towards the west southwest, it is expected to
take a southwards turn, and is likely to pass close to the Cocos Islands on
Tuesday. Conditions are favourable for intensification and there is a
significant risk that people on the Cocos Islands will experience VERY
DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts.

Gales are not expected on the islands during Saturday or Sunday, but may
develop during Monday as the system moves closer and intensifies. The period of
greatest risk will commence on Monday evening, with the system likely to pass
close to the islands during Tuesday.

Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 7.8 degrees South 95.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 8 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1002 hectoPascals

The Australian Federal Police advise a BLUE ALERT for communities on Home and
West Island. People need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an
emergency kit including a first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare
batteries, food and water.

People on the Cocos Islands should tune in to 6CKI or the ABC and listen for
the next advice.

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Sunday 31 October.

This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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#20 Postby Chacor » Sat Oct 30, 2010 9:08 am

This is clearly already a TC but Perth can't call it one if Jakarta don't call it one...

AXAU01 APRF 301301
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1300 UTC 30/10/2010
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 7.8S
Longitude: 95.6E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [252 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 31/0000: 8.1S 94.8E: 060 [110]: 045 [085]: 994
+24: 31/1200: 8.6S 94.7E: 090 [165]: 055 [100]: 987
+36: 01/0000: 9.3S 95.3E: 120 [225]: 070 [130]: 976
+48: 01/1200: 10.2S 96.1E: 155 [285]: 080 [150]: 968
+60: 02/0000: 11.2S 96.6E: 200 [375]: 085 [155]: 963
+72: 02/1200: 12.3S 96.6E: 250 [465]: 080 [150]: 968
REMARKS:
Over the last six hours the system has consolidated with deep convection now
beginning to wrap around the centre. High SSTs are likely assisting the low to
overcome moderate shear.

A shear pattern consistently gives a DT of around T3.0. The MET is 3.0 based on
a 24 hour trend of D. Pattern matching does not indicate any adjustment to the
MET and hence both DT and MET are 3.0. There are no FT constraints to assigning
3.0 hence FT and CI are set at 3.0. The 0244Z ASCAT pass indicates 25-30 knots
in the western semicircle, however given the previously reported low bias of
ASCAT it is possible that winds in this region are 30-35 knots. The final wind
intensity estimate is assigned at 30 knots. This system is considered to be very
close to TC intensity and gales are likely to extend around the LLCC during the
next diurnally favourable period overnight.

Shear conditions are forecast to become more favourable during Sunday and the
system will remain over SST>28C. The mid latitude system passing to the south
erodes the mid level ridge and results in a recurvature to the southeast during
Sunday. This also brings the system into light shear and by Sunday evening the
system should be experiencing quite favourable conditions. The development of
the system in the South China Sea should not be detrimental to this system, so
based on the expected conditions, and consistent with the trend in STIPS
intensity guidance it is forecast to reach hurricane force on Monday.

The spread of model guidance indicates the Cocos Islands have a high risk of
impact from hurricane force winds.

As the system passes south of 12S the ocean heat content becomes marginal. The
system is also likely to encounter more stable boundary layer air in the wake of
the mid latitude system. Hence the system is expected to weaken as it moves off
to the southwest on Wednesday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued at: 30/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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