SEIO (W. AUS): Tropical Cyclone Anggrek

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Re: SEIO (W. AUS): Tropical Low 01U (INVEST 92S TCFA)

#21 Postby Alacane2 » Sat Oct 30, 2010 1:50 pm

IDW24400
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued at 2:48 am WST on Sunday 31 October 2010

A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for the Cocos (Keeling)
Islands.

At 2:00 am WST a tropical low was estimated to be
485 kilometres north northwest of Cocos Island and moving southwest at 4
kilometres per hour.

The low is forecast to develop into a tropical cyclone during Sunday. Recent
movement has been slow and the system is expected to commence a southwards turn
during the day and is likely to pass close to the Cocos Islands during Tuesday.
Conditions are favourable for intensification and there is a significant risk
that people on the Cocos Islands will experience VERY DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts.

Gales are not expected on the islands during Sunday, but may develop during
Monday as the system moves closer and intensifies. The period of greatest risk
will commence on Monday evening, with the system likely to pass close to the
islands during Tuesday.

Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 8.0 degrees South 95.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 4 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals

The Australian Federal Police advise a BLUE ALERT for communities on Home and
West Island. People need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an
emergency kit including a first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare
batteries, food and water.

People on the Cocos Islands should tune in to 6CKI or the ABC and listen for
the next advice.

The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am WST Sunday 31 October.

This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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#22 Postby senorpepr » Sat Oct 30, 2010 2:21 pm

AXAU01 APRF 301857
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1856 UTC 30/10/2010
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 8.0S
Longitude: 95.7E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [222 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: N/A
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 31/0600: 8.4S 95.5E: 070 [130]: 045 [085]: 991
+24: 31/1800: 9.2S 96.2E: 100 [185]: 060 [110]: 982
+36: 01/0600: 10.2S 96.5E: 130 [245]: 070 [130]: 974
+48: 01/1800: 11.2S 96.7E: 165 [305]: 080 [150]: 965
+60: 02/0600: 12.2S 96.6E: 210 [395]: 085 [155]: 961
+72: 02/1800: 13.2S 96.2E: 260 [480]: 080 [150]: 965
REMARKS:
Over the last six hours deep convection has persisted to the west of the LLCC.
Centre difficult to locate but likely to be near strong temperature gradient on
the eastern side of the deep convection.

A shear pattern consistently gives a DT of T3.0. The MET is 3.0 based on a 24
hour trend of D-. Pattern matching does not indicate any adjustment to the MET
and hence both DT and MET are 3.0. There are no FT constraints to assigning 3.0
hence FT and CI are set at 3.0. The 1518Z ASCAT pass indicates 25-30 knots in
the northeast quadrant, outside the deep convection. It is possible that winds
in the deep convection are between 30 to 40 knots. The final wind intensity
estimate remains assigned at 30 knots. This system is considered to be very
close to TC intensity and gales are likely to extend around the LLCC during
Sunday.

Shear conditions are forecast to become more favourable during Sunday and the
system will remain over SSTs>28C. The mid latitude system passing to the south
erodes the mid level ridge and results in a recurvature to the southeast during
Sunday. This also brings the system into light shear and by Sunday evening the
system should be experiencing quite favourable conditions. The development of
the system in the South China Sea should not be detrimental to this system, so
based on the expected conditions, and consistent with the trend in STIPS
intensity guidance it is forecast to reach hurricane force on Monday.

The spread of model guidance indicates the Cocos Islands have a high risk of
impact from hurricane force winds.

As the system passes south of 12S the ocean heat content becomes marginal. The
system is also likely to encounter more stable boundary layer air in the wake of
the mid latitude system. Hence the system is expected to weaken as it moves off
to the southwest on Wednesday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued at: 31/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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Re: SEIO (W. AUS): Tropical Low 01U (INVEST 92S TCFA)

#23 Postby P.K. » Sat Oct 30, 2010 3:26 pm

INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

SECURITE

OCEAN GALE WARNING

OCEAN GALE WARNING FOR AREA 0 90E, 10S 90E, 10S 120E, 11S 120E, 11S 125E, 9S125E, 9S 141E, and 0 141E
Issued by JAKARTA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
At: 20:21 UTC 30 October 2010

SITUATION
At 18:00 UTC Tropical Depression 92S 999 hPa was within 30 nautical miles of 7.9 S 94.2 E moving west southwest at 7 knots.

This tropical depression may develop into a Tropical Cyclone in the next 6-12 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds reaching 30 knots expected to increase to 30 knots in the next 24 hours.
High seas may exceed Rough to Very Rough scale and rising swell.

06:00 UTC 31 October: Within 95 nautical miles of 7.9 S 94.4 E
Central pressure 999 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 30 knots near centre.
18:00 UTC 31 October: Within 125 nautical miles of 8.4 S 95.0 E
Central pressure 997 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 30 knots near centre.

REMARKS
High waves could reach 3 meters along waters of Mentawai Islands to western Lampung, Southern water of Sunda strait and Banten.
Ships please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.
Next warning will be issued by 01:00 UTC 31 October 2010.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre JAKARTA
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Re: SEIO (W. AUS): Tropical Low 01U (INVEST 92S TCFA)

#24 Postby Alacane2 » Sat Oct 30, 2010 3:50 pm

How could this not be a tropical cyclone of at least tropical storm intensity?

Image
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#25 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 30, 2010 4:54 pm

Image

Latest
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#26 Postby Chacor » Sat Oct 30, 2010 8:11 pm

IDJ20060
INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

SECURITE

OCEAN GALE WARNING

OCEAN GALE WARNING FOR AREA 0 90E, 10S 90E, 10S 120E, 11S 120E, 11S 125E, 9S125E, 9S 141E, and 0 141E
Issued by JAKARTA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
At: 21:57 UTC 30 October 2010

SITUATION
At 18:00 UTC Tropical Depression 92S 999 hPa was within 30 nautical miles of 7.9 S 94.2 E moving west southwest at 7 knots.

This tropical depression may develop into a Tropical Cyclone in the next 6-12 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds reaching 30 knots expected to increase to 40 knots in the next 24 hours.
High seas may exceed Rough to Very Rough scale and rising swell.

06:00 UTC 31 October: Within 75 nautical miles of 8.4 S 94.3 E
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 35 knots near centre.
18:00 UTC 31 October: Within 105 nautical miles of 9.0 S 94.7 E
Central pressure 992 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 40 knots near centre.

REMARKS
High waves could reach 3 meters along waters of Mentawai Islands to western Lampung, Southern water of Sunda strait and Banten.
Ships please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.
Next warning will be issued by 01:00 UTC 31 October 2010.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre JAKARTA
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#27 Postby Chacor » Sat Oct 30, 2010 8:12 pm

BOM have upgraded to a tropical cyclone. Remains unnamed as Jakarta have not yet done so.

IDW24400
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued at 8:55 am WST on Sunday 31 October 2010

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

At 8:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone 01U, Category 1 was estimated to be
460 kilometres north of Cocos Island and
moving south southeast at 4 kilometres per hour.

The system has reached tropical cyclone intensity and is expected to continue
to intensify during Sunday as it moves southwards towards the Cocos Islands.
Gales are not expected on the islands during Sunday, but may develop during
Monday as the system moves closer and intensifies. The period of greatest risk
will commence on Monday evening, with the system likely to pass close to the
islands during Tuesday.

Conditions are favourable for intensification and there is a significant risk
that people on the Cocos Islands will experience VERY DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts.

Details of Tropical Cyclone 01U at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 8.1 degrees South 96.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 4 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

The Australian Federal Police advise a BLUE ALERT for communities on Home and
West Island. People need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an
emergency kit including a first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare
batteries, food and water.

People on the Cocos Islands should tune in to 6CKI or the ABC and listen for
the next advice.

The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm WST Sunday 31 October.

This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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#28 Postby Chacor » Sat Oct 30, 2010 8:16 pm

BOM's aviation advisory shows 60 kt in 24h (25 kt RI):

FKAU03 ADRM 310036
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20101031/0000Z
TCAC: DARWIN
TC: 01U
NR: 05
PSN: S0806 E09606
MOV: SSE 02KT
C: 998HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 31/0600 S0830 E09612
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 40KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 31/1200 S0854 E09618
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 45KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 31/1800 S0924 E09636
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 50KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 01/0000 S0954 E09654
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 60KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20101031/0700Z
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#29 Postby Chacor » Sat Oct 30, 2010 8:17 pm

WTXS31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/292151ZOCT2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 8.1S 95.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 8.1S 95.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 9.0S 95.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 9.6S 96.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 10.4S 97.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 11.1S 97.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 12.9S 98.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 14.5S 97.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 15.5S 95.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 8.3S 95.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (TWO), CURRENTLY LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 301519Z 89GHZ AMSU IMAGE INDICATE CONSOLIDATION AND
INTENSIFICATION OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY SHOWS WINDS
EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE CIRCUMFERENCE OF THE
LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON ASCAT IMAGERY AND
THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW. THE LLCC IS LOCATED JUST
EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS UNDER 20-30 KTS OF
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS DISPLACING THE DEEP
CONVECTION WESTWARD. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
IMPROVING OUTFLOW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EAST QUADRANT, HOWEVER,
TC 02S IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOWER VWS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL
AGREEMENT AND SHOW A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 72
FOLLOWED BY A BROAD TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH WILL KEEP THE
CYCLONE MOVING OVER FAVORABLE SSTS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY TAU 60.
FAVORABLE SST COUPLED WITH A DECREASE IN VWS AND IMPROVING OUTFLOW
SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS
NEAR TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC 02S SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS OVER COOLER SST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 48. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE TRACK IS
POSITIONED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF CONSENSUS DUE TO PROBLEMS WITH THE GFDN
TRACKER. GFDN ERRONEOUSLY TRACKS THE SYSTEM EASTWARD INTO THE RIDGE
THROUGH TAU 72 THEN SHARPLY TURNS THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 292151ZOCT10 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 292200). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z AND
312100Z.//
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#30 Postby Alacane2 » Sat Oct 30, 2010 9:24 pm

TCWC Jakarta finally named 01U ANGGREK.
IDJ20060
INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

SECURITE

OCEAN GALE WARNING

OCEAN GALE WARNING FOR AREA 0 90E, 10S 90E, 10S 120E, 11S 120E, 11S 125E, 9S125E, 9S 141E, and 0 141E
Issued by JAKARTA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
At: 02:11 UTC 31 October 2010

SITUATION
At 00:00 UTC Tropical Cyclone ANGGREK 997 hPa was within 30 nautical miles of 8.1 S 94.5 E moving southeast at 4 knots.

This tropical depression may develop into a Tropical Cyclone in the next 6-12 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds reaching 35 knots expected to increase to 60 knots in the next 24 hours.
High seas may exceed Rough to Very Rough scale and rising swell.

12:00 UTC 31 October: Within 60 nautical miles of 8.9 S 94.9 E
Central pressure 988 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 45 knots near centre.
00:00 UTC 01 November: Within 90 nautical miles of 9.7 S 95.6 E
Central pressure 973 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 60 knots near centre.

REMARKS
High waves could reach 3 meters along waters of Mentawai Islands to western Lampung, Southern water of Sunda strait and Banten.
Ships please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.
Next warning will be issued by 07:00 UTC 31 October 2010.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre JAKARTA
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#31 Postby Chacor » Sun Oct 31, 2010 12:04 am

Typical, shoddy work. Second line still says it's a TD.
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Re:

#32 Postby HurricaneBill » Sun Oct 31, 2010 3:10 am

Alacane2 wrote:REMARKS
High waves could reach 3 meters along waters of Mentawai Islands to western Lampung, Southern water of Sunda strait and Banten.


The Mentawai Islands were the ones hit by the tsunami.
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#33 Postby KWT » Sun Oct 31, 2010 7:23 am

Looks like this one could become a fairly decent strength system, I suspect we'll probably see it getting upto say 80kts, so I personally think it'll go just a smidge higher then the JWTC...alas who really knows though!
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#34 Postby Alacane2 » Sun Oct 31, 2010 7:41 am

IDW24400
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued at 5:47 pm WST on Sunday 31 October 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for people on the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

At 5:00 pm WST (3:30pm Cocos local time) Tropical Cyclone Anggrek, Category 1,
was estimated to be
380 kilometres north of Cocos Island and
moving south southeast at 7 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is expected to intensify overnight as it moves
southwards towards the Cocos Islands. Gales are not expected on the islands
during Sunday, but may develop during Monday as the system moves closer and
intensifies. The period of greatest risk will commence on Monday evening, with
the system likely to pass close to the islands during Tuesday.

Overnight conditions will become favourable for intensification and there is a
significant risk that people on the Cocos Islands will experience VERY
DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Anggrek at 5:00 pm WST (3:30pm Cocos local time):
.Centre located near...... 8.8 degrees South 96.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 7 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

The Australian Federal Police advise a BLUE ALERT for communities on Home and
West Island. People need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an
emergency kit including a first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare
batteries, food and water.

People on the Cocos Islands should tune in to 6CKI or the ABC and listen for
the next advice.

The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Sunday 31 October.

This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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Re: SEIO (W. AUS): Tropical Cyclone Anggrek

#35 Postby Alacane2 » Sun Oct 31, 2010 10:53 am

IDW24400
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued at 11:42 pm WST on Sunday 31 October 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for people on the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

At 11:00 pm WST (9:30pm Cocos local time) Tropical Cyclone Anggrek, Category 1,
was estimated to be
300 kilometres north of Cocos Island and
moving southeast at 10 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is expected to intensify overnight as it moves
southwards towards the Cocos Islands. Gales may develop during Monday as the
system moves closer and intensifies. The period of greatest risk will commence
on Monday evening, with the system likely to pass close to the islands during
Tuesday.

Overnight conditions will become favourable for intensification and there is a
significant risk that people on the Cocos Islands will experience VERY
DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts during Tuesday.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Anggrek at 11:00 pm WST (9:30pm Cocos local time):
.Centre located near...... 9.5 degrees South 96.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 10 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals

The Australian Federal Police advise a YELLOW ALERT for communities on Home and
West Island.

People need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.

People on the Cocos Islands should tune in to 6CKI or the ABC and listen for
the next advice.

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Monday 01 November.

This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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Alacane2
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#36 Postby Alacane2 » Sun Oct 31, 2010 3:56 pm

IDW24400
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 11
Issued at 2:50 am WST on Monday 1 November 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for people on the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

At 2:00 am WST (12:30am Cocos local time) Tropical Cyclone Anggrek, Category 1,
was estimated to be
290 kilometres north of Cocos Island and
moving southeast at 10 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is expected to intensify this morning as it moves
southwards towards the Cocos Islands. Gales may develop during Monday as the
system moves closer and intensifies. The period of greatest risk will commence
on Monday evening, with the system likely to pass close to the islands during
Tuesday.

During this morning conditions will become favourable for intensification and
there is a significant risk that people on the Cocos Islands will experience
VERY DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts during Tuesday.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Anggrek at 2:00 am WST (12:30am Cocos local time):
.Centre located near...... 9.6 degrees South 97.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 10 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 120 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 994 hectoPascals

The Australian Federal Police advise a YELLOW ALERT for communities on Home and
West Island.

People need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.

People on the Cocos Islands should tune in to 6CKI or the ABC and listen for
the next advice.

The next advice will be issued by 6:00 am WST Monday 01 November.

This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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HURAKAN
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#37 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Oct 31, 2010 6:48 pm

Image

Latest
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Alacane2
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Posts: 126
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#38 Postby Alacane2 » Sun Oct 31, 2010 8:13 pm

IDW24400
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13
Issued at 8:58 am WST on Monday 1 November 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for people on the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

At 8:00 am WST (6:30am Cocos local time) Tropical Cyclone Anggrek, Category 2,
was estimated to be
260 kilometres north northeast of Cocos Islands and
moving southeast at 8 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is expected to intensify during Monday as it moves
southwards towards the Cocos Islands. Squalls on the islands will get gradually
stronger during the day with periods of gale force winds by nightfall.

With the cyclone expected to curve around toward the west on Tuesday it is
likely that it will be close to Cocos for an extended period and so gales may
continue throughout Tuesday. If the cyclone passes close by VERY DESTRUCTIVE
wind gusts will occur and tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide
mark with DAMAGING WAVES and flooding of low lying areas.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Anggrek at 8:00 am WST (3:30am Cocos local time):
.Centre located near...... 9.9 degrees South 97.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 8 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 989 hectoPascals

The Australian Federal Police advise a YELLOW ALERT for communities on Home and
West Island. People need to take action and get ready to shelter from a
cyclone.

People on the Cocos Islands should tune in to 6CKI or the ABC and listen for
the next advice.

The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm WST Monday 01 November.

This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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Chacor
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#39 Postby Chacor » Sun Oct 31, 2010 8:24 pm

Looks like an eye is developing.
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Chacor
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#40 Postby Chacor » Sun Oct 31, 2010 10:32 pm

Up to 50kt sustained, 70kt gusts.

Perth discussion:
A warm spot has appeared on the 2330 MTSAT IR
image. Although it has the appearance of a eye this is not
constent with other
data, particularly the structure revealed in microwave
imagery. The warm spot
has appeared downshear of an overshooting Cb top that had a scattering signature
in the 37GHz TMM image and at this stage it is believed to
be caused by downward
motion initiated by interaction of the overshooting top of the
Cb with the
tropopause.
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