ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

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ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 29, 2010 3:33 pm

000
WTNT21 KNHC 292031
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
2100 UTC FRI OCT 29 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BARBADOS...AND ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL WARNING FOR
MARTINIQUE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...AND GRENADA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
DOMINICA.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...MARTINIQUE...ST. LUCIA...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...GRENADA...AND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 57.5W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 57.5W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 56.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 12.0N 59.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 55NE 45SE 20SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 12.9N 61.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 65NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 13.5N 64.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 14.1N 66.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.8N 70.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 15.2N 74.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 16.0N 76.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 57.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
WTNT31 KNHC 292036
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

...THE NINETEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS SOUTHEAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 57.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BARBADOS...AND ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL WARNING FOR
MARTINIQUE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...AND GRENADA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
DOMINICA.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...MARTINIQUE...ST. LUCIA...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...GRENADA...AND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL WINDWARD ISLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
TOMAS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING
WITHIN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#2 Postby abajan » Fri Oct 29, 2010 3:59 pm


000
WTNT41 KNHC 292058
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
FOUND A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...ALONG WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
AND UNCONTAMINATED SFMR SURFACE WINDS THAT SUPPORT A 35-KT TROPICAL
STORM. AS A RESULT...ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN INITIATED ON TROPICAL
STORM TOMAS...THE NINETEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2010 SEASON.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 295/15...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF REFORMATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITHIN THE CENTRAL DEEP
CONVECTION. TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE BROAD TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED
OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST...WHICH ALLOWS A RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF TOMAS
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES...THE BAHAMAS...AND FLORIDA. THE
EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD FORCE TOMAS ON
MORE OF A WESTERLY TRACK THROUGH 96 HOURS. BY DAY 5...A SECOND MUCH
DEEPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND CAUSE THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED STEERING
CURRENTS TO WEAKEN. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A SHARP DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED BY 120 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL AND
HWRF MODELS...WHICH ARE CONSIDERED TO BE OUTLIERS AT THIS TIME.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND UKMET MODELS...WHICH ARE DEPICTING A MUCH WEAKER AND
SMALLER TROPICAL CYCLONE THAN IS EXPECTED.

RECON AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS ARE NOT YET VERTICALLY ALIGNED...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER...WITH A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 998 MB...VERY MOIST MID-LEVELS...AND LOW
VERTICAL SHEAR...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR TOMAS TO INTENSIFY AT A
FASTER THAN NORMAL RATE. WHILE NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATING RAPID
INTENSIFICATION...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THESE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...AND IS ABOVE THE SHIPS/LGEM
INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 11.1N 57.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 12.0N 59.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 12.9N 61.8W 50 KT
36HR VT 31/0600Z 13.5N 64.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 31/1800Z 14.1N 66.2W 70 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 14.8N 70.4W 90 KT
96HR VT 02/1800Z 15.2N 74.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 03/1800Z 16.0N 76.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#3 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 29, 2010 6:58 pm

000
WTNT21 KNHC 292356
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
0000 UTC SAT OCT 30 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* BARBADOS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* GRENADA
* TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATER THIS EVENING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 57.6W AT 30/0000Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 45SE 45SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 60SE 0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 57.6W AT 30/0000Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 56.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 12.0N 59.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 12.9N 61.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 13.5N 64.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 14.1N 66.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.8N 70.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 15.2N 74.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 16.0N 76.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 57.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
800 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

...TOMAS STRENGTHENING QUICKLY EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 57.6W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* BARBADOS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* GRENADA
* TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATER THIS EVENING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.6 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
TOMAS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING
WITHIN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN

NNNN



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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#4 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 29, 2010 7:05 pm

WTNT41 KNHC 300003
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
800 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

ON THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF TOMAS...THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 61
KT AND SFMR MEASUREMENTS AROUND 50 KT. THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED
FASTER THAN WAS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND A SPECIAL
ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH
THE FIRST 48 HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA.

BUOY 41101 IS ALREADY REPORTING SEAS OF 13 FT WELL NORTH OF THE
CENTER...REQUIRING AN EXPANSION OF THE 12-FT SEAS RADII.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0000Z 11.6N 57.6W 50 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 12.0N 59.5W 55 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 12.9N 61.8W 60 KT
36HR VT 31/0600Z 13.5N 64.0W 70 KT
48HR VT 31/1800Z 14.1N 66.2W 80 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 14.8N 70.4W 90 KT
96HR VT 02/1800Z 15.2N 74.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 03/1800Z 16.0N 76.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN


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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 29, 2010 9:41 pm

345
WTNT21 KNHC 300240
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
0300 UTC SAT OCT 30 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR BARBADOS AND ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES TO A HURRICANE
WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR ST. LUCIA TO A HURRICANE WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
MARTINIQUE TO A HURRICANE WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
* GRENADA
* DOMINICA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE NEARING
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 58.4W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 45SE 45SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 60SE 45SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 58.4W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 57.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.0N 60.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...105NE 60SE 60SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.7N 62.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT...105NE 60SE 60SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 14.2N 65.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.5N 67.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.0N 71.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 65NW.
34 KT...135NE 105SE 105SW 135NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 15.5N 74.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 16.0N 76.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 58.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN



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#6 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 29, 2010 9:43 pm

108
WTNT31 KNHC 300242
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

...TOMAS NEARING BARBADOS...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 58.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR BARBADOS AND ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES TO A HURRICANE
WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR ST. LUCIA TO A HURRICANE WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
MARTINIQUE TO A HURRICANE WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
* GRENADA
* DOMINICA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE NEARING
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED LATE SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS
WILL APPROACH BARBADOS OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
TOMAS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY MORNING AS IT PASSES
NEAR BARBADOS AND MOVES ACROSS THE OTHER WINDWARD ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

BARBADOS REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 55 MPH...89 KM/HR...IN A SQUALL
EARLIER THIS EVENING.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS
BARBADOS SOON AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING AREA EARLY SATURDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON BARBADOS EARLY SATURDAY AND
WITHIN THE REMAINDER OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER SATURDAY
MORNING.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WITHIN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN


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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 29, 2010 9:46 pm

787
WTNT41 KNHC 300245
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

AS MENTIONED IN THE 0000 UTC SPECIAL ADVISORY...THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 61
KT AND SFMR MEASUREMENTS BETWEEN 50-55 KT...ALBEIT IN SOME HEAVY
RAIN...ON THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
CONTINUED TO INCREASE SINCE THAT TIME WITH A PROMINENT BAND FORMING
OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING
RAISED TO 55 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.

TOMAS IS BENEFITING FROM EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALMOST ALL
QUADRANTS...AND THE CYCLONE APPEARS AS THOUGH IT IS GOING THROUGH A
PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. SHIPS RI GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
AT LEAST A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30-KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT TOMAS WILL REACH
HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. AFTER 24
HOURS...NEARLY ALL THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS THE INTENSITY
LEVELING OFF OR ONLY INCREASING MORE MODESTLY THROUGH 120 HOURS.
HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
CARIBBEAN BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION...AND IT
IS NOT OBVIOUS AT THIS POINT WHAT MIGHT LIMIT THAT TREND. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW STEADY STRENGTHENING TO
CATEGORY 3 STRENGTH BY DAY 4 AND REMAINS ABOVE ALL THE RELIABLE
INTENSITY MODELS.

THE CENTER APPEARED TO HAVE REFORMED TO THE NORTH EARLIER THIS
EVENING...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/14. THE NEW
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THE FIRST 12-24 HOURS OF THE TRACK
FORECAST HAVE BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AS AN ARTIFACT OF
THE REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GFDL ALL
SUPPORT A RELATIVELY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES AND SHOW TOMAS MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THESE ARE USUALLY THE MOST
TRUSTWORTHY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FAVORS THEIR SCENARIO...LYING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0300Z 12.2N 58.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 13.0N 60.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 31/0000Z 13.7N 62.7W 75 KT
36HR VT 31/1200Z 14.2N 65.0W 85 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 14.5N 67.1W 90 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 15.0N 71.0W 95 KT
96HR VT 03/0000Z 15.5N 74.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 04/0000Z 16.0N 76.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#8 Postby Extratropical94 » Sat Oct 30, 2010 4:56 am

000
WTNT31 KNHC 300848
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

...TOMAS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT PASSES NEAR BARBADOS AND
HEADS TOWARD THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 59.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
* GRENADA
* DOMINICA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
TOMAS WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND
ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

BARBADOS RECENTLY REPORTED A 10-MINUTE WIND OF 36 MPH...57 KM/HR
...AND A PRESSURE OF 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ON BARBADOS...AND
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING AREA THIS MORNING.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
LATER THIS MORNING.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WITHIN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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#9 Postby Extratropical94 » Sat Oct 30, 2010 4:57 am

000
WTNT41 KNHC 300849
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF TOMAS HAS IMPROVED OVERNIGHT. AN
EARLIER GAP IN THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS FILLED IN
...AND THE OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT. ALSO...IMAGERY FROM THE RADAR
ON MARTINIQUE AND A 0624 UTC TRMM PASS SUGGEST THAT AN EYEWALL
MAY BE FORMING. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
RAISED TO 60 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE TOMAS LATER THIS MORNING TO GET BETTER
INFORMATION ON THE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE. DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL RAPID INTENSITY INDEX
SHOWS A NEARLY 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 25-KT INCREASE IN 24 HOURS.
BEYOND THAT TIME...THE SHIPS MODEL...BASED ON GFS MODEL FIELDS...
SHOWS AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD SLOW THE
RATE OF INTENSIFICATION SOMEWHAT. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE SHEAR MAY
RELAX AND ALLOW FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS THINKING AND IS ABOVE ALL OF THE RELIABLE
INTENSITY MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK BASED ON THE RECENT TRMM PASS...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/13. TOMAS IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. AS A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
LIFTS OUT...ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN NORTH OF TOMAS...WHICH
SHOULD IMPART A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72
HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND CAUSE A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND POTENTIALLY A
NORTHWARD TURN. THE TRACK MODEL ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD WITH
THIS CYCLE...BUT THE FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD
OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF MODELS WHICH REMAIN
FARTHER SOUTH. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE FORWARD SPEED IS QUITE SLOW
DUE TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE
POTENTIAL NORTHWARD TURN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0900Z 12.9N 59.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 13.5N 61.3W 70 KT
24HR VT 31/0600Z 14.1N 63.7W 80 KT
36HR VT 31/1800Z 14.6N 65.9W 85 KT
48HR VT 01/0600Z 15.1N 68.1W 90 KT
72HR VT 02/0600Z 15.5N 71.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 03/0600Z 16.0N 73.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 04/0600Z 16.5N 74.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 30, 2010 6:59 am

000
WTNT31 KNHC 301157
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
800 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

...TOMAS CAUSES DAMAGE ON BARBADOS...NOW HEADING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AT NEAR-HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 60.1W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM E OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
* GRENADA
* DOMINICA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.1 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
TOMAS WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A WIND GUST TO 63 MPH...100
KM/HR...WAS REPORTED ON BARBADOS. INFORMATION FROM THE BARBADOS
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE INDICATES THAT DAMAGE TO HOMES AND DOWNED
POWER LINES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON THE ISLAND.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY ESTIMATED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ON BARBADOS...AND
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING AREA THIS MORNING.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
LATER THIS MORNING.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WITHIN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI


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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 30, 2010 9:34 am

510
WTNT31 KNHC 301432
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

...TWELFTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON BEARING DOWN ON ST. LUCIA
AND ST. VINCENT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 60.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING
WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* DOMINICA
* TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
* GRENADA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.7 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
TOMAS WILL PASS NEAR ST. LUCIA AND ST. VINCENT THIS AFTERNOON...
AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY TONIGHT.

RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...
120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TOMAS IS A NOW CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
175 MILES...280 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A WIND GUST TO 53 MPH...
85 KM/HR...WAS REPORTED ON ST. LUCIA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY ESTIMATED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ON ST. LUCIA...AND
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING AREA THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WITHIN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 30, 2010 9:34 am

KNHC 301432
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

...TWELFTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON BEARING DOWN ON ST. LUCIA
AND ST. VINCENT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 60.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING
WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* DOMINICA
* TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
* GRENADA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.7 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
TOMAS WILL PASS NEAR ST. LUCIA AND ST. VINCENT THIS AFTERNOON...
AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY TONIGHT.

RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...
120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TOMAS IS A NOW CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
175 MILES...280 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A WIND GUST TO 53 MPH...
85 KM/HR...WAS REPORTED ON ST. LUCIA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY ESTIMATED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ON ST. LUCIA...AND
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING AREA THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WITHIN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 30, 2010 10:03 am

01501
TCDAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TOMAS
THIS MORNING FOUND MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 68 KT IN
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ALONG WITH SEVERAL 64-66 KT RELIABLE SFMR
WINDS. IN ADDITION...A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL INDICATED
A SURFACE WIND OF 72 KT. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND PROFILES
SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY LESSER SURFACE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF AROUND 66
KT. A COMBINATION OF THIS DATA EASILY SUPPORTS A 65-KT HURRICANE...
AND TOMAS HAS BEEN UPGRADED ACCORDINGLY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/13. THE LATEST RECON FIX
POSITIONS HAVE COME IN RIGHT ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.
UPPER-AIR DATA FROM SAN JUAN REVEALED 30-METER 500 MB HEIGHT
INCREASES DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...WHICH CLEARLY INDICATES THAT
MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF TOMAS HAS STARTED AS THE
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THAT HAS CAPTURED HURRICANE SHARY LIFTS RAPIDLY
TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN REGION. LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGING IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO CONTINUE
BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES FOR THE
NEXT 72-96 HOURS. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY FORCE TOMAS ON A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK...ESPECIALLY AFTER 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...BY DAY 5...A
BROAD MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE U.S. WEST
COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BY DAYS
2-3 AND THEN DIG MORE SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER THAT...AND INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY DAY 5. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE
AND A WEAKENING OF THE STEERING CURRENT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WEAK FLOW REGIME SHOULD ALLOW TOMAS TO
SLOW DOWN AND GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS JUST AN UPDATE AND EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...
AND REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

TOMAS HAS DEVELOPED A 30-40 NMI DIAMETER EYE NOTED IN RECENT RADAR
IMAGES FROM MARTINIQUE. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS WELL
ESTABLISHED AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. A COMBINATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES ALONG WITH DEEP WARM WATER AHEAD OF THE
CYCLONE SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...WESTERLY 300 MB WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO UNDERCUT THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW LAYER AND INDUCE SOME
SHEAR ON TOMAS...WHICH MAY HALT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.
USUALLY WITH WESTERLY SHEAR COMES DRY AIR MID-LEVEL AIR...AND THIS
INHIBITING FACTOR WAS CLEARLY INDICATED IN UPPER-AIR DATA WEST OF
65W LONGITUDE THIS MORNING. BY 72 HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AS TOMAS SLOWS DOWN...AND A INTENSIFICATION
IS EXPECTED TO RESUME. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE
SHIPS/LGEM MODELS...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
LAST TWO GFDL MODEL RUNS...WHICH MAKES A TOMAS A MAJOR HURRICANE
SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/1500Z 13.3N 60.7W 65 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 13.8N 62.5W 75 KT
24HR VT 31/1200Z 14.4N 64.8W 80 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 14.8N 67.2W 80 KT
48HR VT 01/1200Z 15.2N 69.2W 85 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 15.6N 72.3W 90 KT
96HR VT 03/1200Z 16.0N 74.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 04/1200Z 16.5N 75.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 30, 2010 12:39 pm

000
WTNT31 KNHC 301737
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
200 PM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

...TOMAS LASHING ST. LUCIA AND ST. VINCENT WITH STRONG WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 61.0W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NE OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM S OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR TRINIDAD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* DOMINICA
* TOBAGO
* GRENADA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.0 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
TOMAS WILL PASS NEAR ST. LUCIA AND ST. VINCENT THIS AFTERNOON...
AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
175 MILES...280 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A SUSTAINED WIND OF
48 MPH...78 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 69 MPH...110 KM/HR...WAS REPORTED
ON ST. LUCIA. A WIND GUST TO 51 MPH...82 KM/HR...WAS RECENTLY
REPORTED ON MARTINIQUE.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ON ST. LUCIA...ST.
VINCENT...AND MARTINIQUE...AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE WARNING AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AT ANY TIME.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WITHIN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#15 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 30, 2010 3:46 pm

WTNT31 KNHC 302043
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

...TOMAS CONTINUES TO LASH ST. LUCIA AND ST. VINCENT WITH STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY RAINS...AND BATTERING SURF CONDITIONS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 61.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NW OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BARBADOS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* TOBAGO
* GRENADA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.4 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF TOMAS WILL PASS BETWEEN ST. LUCIA AND ST. VINCENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATER
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
175 MILES...280 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A WIND GUST TO 45 MPH...
72 KM/HR...WAS REPORTED ON MARTINIQUE AND A WIND GUST TO 40 MPH...
65 KM/HR...WAS REPORTED ON DOMINICA. RECENT REPORTS FROM HAM RADIO
OPERATORS INDICATE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE TO HOMES AND POWER LINES HAS
OCCURRED ON BARBADOS...ST. LUCIA...AND ST. VINCENT. ALSO...
HEWANORRA AIRPORT ON ST. LUCIA HAS BEEN CLOSED DUE TO FLOOD WATERS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ON ST. LUCIA...ST.
VINCENT...AND MARTINIQUE...AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE WARNING AREA THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY
OCCURRING ON ST. LUCIA AND ST. VINCENT...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WITHIN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

WTNT41 KNHC 302046
TCDAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TOMAS
THIS AFTERNOON FOUND MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 67 KT IN
THE NORTH QUADRANT...WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT 60 KT SURFACE WINDS.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB
AND SAB. THE STRUCTURE OF TOMAS HAS IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY IN RADAR
IMAGERY FROM MARTINIQUE...AND THE CYCLONE NOW POSSESSES A CLOSED 25
N MI DIAMETER EYE. THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 65 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE LOW BASED ON SOME OF THE DAMAGE
REPORTS THAT HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM HAM RADIO OPERATORS ON ST.
LUCIA AND ST. VINCENT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/09. TOMAS REMAINS ON TRACK...
AND THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR
REASONING. THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF TOMAS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES
FOR THE NEXT 96 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP TOMAS ON A WEST-NORTHWEST
TO WESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER...A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AND PINCH OFF A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY 120
HOURS. THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND LOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GREATER ANTILLES
RIDGE AND CAUSE THE STEERING CURRENTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TO WEAKEN...ALLOWING TOMAS TO SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY AND BEGIN TO MOVE POLEWARD. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL TRACK SCENARIO EXCEPT FOR
SPEED DIFFERENCES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS.

WITH A CLOSED EYE AND A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...TOMAS IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO BEFORE WEAK
WESTERLY 400-300 MB WINDS UNDERCUT THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW LAYER AND
ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FROM THE WEST COMBINE TO INTERRUPT
THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS. HOWEVER...BY 48-72 HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TOMAS TO
RESUME STEADY INTENSIFICATION. THE GFS-BASED SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS
ARE FORECASTING STEADY WEAKENING AFTER 48 HOURS...BUT THAT IS
BELIEVED TO BE DUE TO ERRONEOUS MODEL-INDUCED SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING TOMAS AS A RESULT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK BEING ABOUT 120 N MI NORTH OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE DEPICTED IN THE GFS MODEL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS ABOVE THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LAST TWO GFDL MODEL RUNS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 13.5N 61.4W 65 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 14.0N 63.4W 75 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 14.5N 65.7W 80 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 14.9N 67.9W 80 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 15.2N 69.7W 85 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 15.7N 72.4W 90 KT
96HR VT 03/1800Z 16.0N 74.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 04/1800Z 16.5N 74.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





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#16 Postby pepeavilenho » Sat Oct 30, 2010 5:29 pm

000
WTNT41 KNHC 302202
TCDAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
600 PM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

REPORTS FROM THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ST. LUCIA INDICATE THAT
TOMAS HAS STRENGTHENED...WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 80 KT. THIS SPECIAL
ADVISORY IS ISSUED TO INCREASE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY
OF THE HURRICANE. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2200Z 13.5N 61.6W 80 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 14.0N 63.4W 85 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 14.5N 65.7W 90 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 14.9N 67.9W 90 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 15.2N 69.7W 95 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 15.7N 72.4W 95 KT
96HR VT 03/1800Z 16.0N 74.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 04/1800Z 16.5N 74.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 30, 2010 6:54 pm

000
WTNT31 KNHC 302352
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
800 PM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

...CORE OF TOMAS MOVING AWAY FROM ST. VINCENT AND ST. LUCIA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 61.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM NW OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM WSW OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* TOBAGO
* GRENADA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.7 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF TOMAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM ST. LUCIA AND ST.
VINCENT THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITHIN PORTIONS OF
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...PARTICULARLY ON ST. LUCIA AND ST.
VINCENT...BUT THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS TOMAS MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL OCCURRING ON THE OTHER ISLANDS
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...LARGE AND POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...BUT STORM SURGE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN


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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#18 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 30, 2010 9:49 pm

WTNT31 KNHC 310246
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

...CENTER OF TOMAS NOW OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS STILL OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 62.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WNW OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM W OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST.
VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
ST. LUCIA TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
MARTINIQUE TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* TOBAGO
* GRENADA

THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO WILL BE DISCONTINUING THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TOBAGO AND GRENADA AT MIDNIGHT AST.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.1 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...A WIND GUST TO 53
MPH...85 KM/HR...WAS REPORTED ON MARTINIQUE. A WIND GUST TO 49
MPH...80 KM/HR...WAS REPORTED ON BARBADOS WITHIN A RAINBAND WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS HAVE MOVED WEST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL OCCURRING ON THE
ISLANDS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND
SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH TOMAS.

STORM SURGE...LARGE AND POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...BUT WATER LEVELS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#19 Postby abajan » Sat Oct 30, 2010 9:49 pm


000
WTNT41 KNHC 310246
TCDAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

THE STRUCTURE OF TOMAS HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE TIME THE ST.
LUCIA WEATHER SERVICE REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS ON THAT ISLAND OF AT
LEAST 80 KT AROUND 2130 UTC. AN EYE HAS NOT BECOME ESTABLISHED ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH IT IS WELL DEFINED IN RADAR
DATA FROM MARTINIQUE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 80 KT SINCE
THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS RECENT CHANGES...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THIS COULD
BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE TOMAS LATER TONIGHT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/8. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY GAIN LATITUDE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO DUE TO A MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS SOLUTION...BUT THERE IS MUCH GREATER SPREAD AFTER 48 HOURS.
THE GFS...ECMWF...UKMET...AND GFDL SUPPORT A STRONGER MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND MOVE TOMAS ON A WESTWARD OR
JUST SOUTH OF WESTWARD MOTION ON DAYS 2-4. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN
SHOW TOMAS MOVING WELL NORTH OF HISPANIOLA BY DAY 5...AND THE HWRF
SHOWS THE CYCLONE STALLING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
LATTER THREE MODELS APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS. THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE MORE SOUTHERN BATCH
OF MODELS.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
NONE OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING BEYOND ABOUT
90 KT. THE 200-MB FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING...ESPECIALLY IF TOMAS MAINTAINS A MORE
SOUTHERN COURSE. HOWEVER...CROSS-SECTION ANALYSES OF THE GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE VORTEX COULD BECOME A LITTLE TILTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...POSSIBLY DUE TO SHEAR BELOW THE
OUTFLOW LAYER. BECAUSE OF THESE MIXED SIGNALS...THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST ONLY SHOWS MODEST STRENGTHENING THROUGH 24 HOURS
AND ESSENTIALLY HOLDS THE INTENSITY FAIRLY STEADY THEREAFTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0300Z 13.6N 62.1W 80 KT
12HR VT 31/1200Z 14.0N 63.8W 90 KT
24HR VT 01/0000Z 14.6N 65.9W 95 KT
36HR VT 01/1200Z 14.9N 68.0W 95 KT
48HR VT 02/0000Z 15.0N 69.7W 95 KT
72HR VT 03/0000Z 15.0N 72.5W 95 KT
96HR VT 04/0000Z 15.5N 74.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 05/0000Z 16.0N 74.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN
Last edited by abajan on Sat Oct 30, 2010 9:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#20 Postby abajan » Sun Oct 31, 2010 6:09 am


ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
200 AM AST SUN OCT 31 2010

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS TOMAS A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 62.4W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM WNW OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM W OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR TOBAGO AND GRENADA AT MIDNIGHT AST.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
TOMAS WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT.

DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. IN THE PAST HOUR A WIND GUST TO 48 MPH...78 KM/HR
...WAS REPORTED ON MARTINIQUE.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL OCCURRING ON THE
ISLANDS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND
SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH TOMAS.

STORM SURGE...LARGE AND POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...BUT WATER LEVELS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS
___________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________

000
WTNT31 KNHC 310838
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 AM AST SUN OCT 31 2010

...TOMAS STILL PRODUCING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 62.9W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM W OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

THESE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
TOMAS WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...MARTINIQUE REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 43
MPH...69 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL OCCURRING WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA...BUT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND
SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TODAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH TOMAS.

STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
___________________________________________________________________

000
WTNT41 KNHC 310843
TCDAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 AM AST SUN OCT 31 2010

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...ALONG
WITH SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY...INDICATE THAT TOMAS HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85
KT IS BASED ON A 700-MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM OF 97 KT AND A
MAXIMUM SFMR READING OF 85 KT. HOWEVER...DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE
AIRCRAFT AND A 0350 UTC TRMM PASS INDICATE THAT THE VORTEX IS
TILTED NORTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR IS IMPACTING THE CYCLONE AS SEEN IN THE SHIPS MODEL ANALYSIS
WHICH IS BASED ON ATMOSPHERIC FIELDS FROM THE GFS MODEL. IN THE
SHORT TERM...THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL ALL SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FROM 24 TO 72
HOURS...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING...AND ALL OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE WEAKENS TOMAS. ADDITIONALLY...THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX ASSOCIATED WITH TOMAS WEAKENING DURING
THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THIS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW A SLIGHT
DIP IN THE INTENSITY AT 48 AND 72 HOURS...BUT REMAINS WELL ABOVE
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE. AROUND 96 HOURS...THE SHEAR MAY DECREASE AND
ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING...AS INDICATED BY THE LGEM.

BASED ON RECENT FIXES TOMAS IS A BIT NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
FORECAST AND THE LONG-TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/7. TOMAS
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF TOMAS AND SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST IN 2 OR 3 DAYS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS
A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...
RESULTING IN A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE AND SOME GAIN IN
LATITUDE. HOWEVER...THE MODEL SPREAD IS QUITE LARGE AT DAYS 4 AND 5
DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE NORTHWARD
TURN AS TOMAS INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS A
LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION...BUT
IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE IN DEFERENCE TO THE
GFS...ECMWF...UKMET AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH ARE ALL EVEN FARTHER
SOUTH. AT DAY 5...A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS SHOWN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST ARE LOWER THAN
USUAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0900Z 14.0N 62.9W 85 KT
12HR VT 31/1800Z 14.4N 64.3W 95 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 14.8N 66.4W 95 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 15.1N 68.4W 95 KT
48HR VT 02/0600Z 15.1N 70.0W 90 KT
72HR VT 03/0600Z 15.0N 72.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 04/0600Z 15.5N 73.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 05/0600Z 16.5N 74.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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