ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#61 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 05, 2010 12:55 pm

WTNT31 KNHC 051748
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
200 PM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010

...CENTER OF TOMAS ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 74.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM NW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE
HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO BARAHONA
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.0 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF TOMAS WILL PASS BETWEEN NORTHWESTERN HAITI AND EXTREME EASTERN
CUBA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND BEGINNING ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN HAITI...AND ARE EXPECTED IN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS OTHER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#62 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 05, 2010 3:40 pm

000
WTNT31 KNHC 052035
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010

...CENTER OF TOMAS APPROACHING GREAT INAGUA IN THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 73.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN. THE GOVERNMENT
OF CUBA HAS ALSO CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING IN GUANTANAMO TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO BARAHONA
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED
BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14
MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT DAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT A SLOWER
FORWARD SPEED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. TOMAS IS ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN SOME
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM...MAINLY ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF TOMAS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTERS DATA IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. STORM SURGE FLOODING IN
EASTERN CUBA AND WESTERN HAITI SHOULD DIMINISH ON SATURDAY. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN HAITI...AND ARE EXPECTED IN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT
OR SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#63 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 05, 2010 4:15 pm

000
WTNT41 KNHC 052059
TCDAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010

THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF HURRICANE TOMAS HAS BEEN DISRUPTED THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME OF THIS DISORGANIZATION MAY HAVE BEEN DUE TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT TOMAS
HAS BEEN AFFECTED BY HAVING SOME OF ITS CIRCULATION PASS OVER THE
HIGHER TOPOGRAPHIC REGIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND HAITI. THE HIGHEST
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS IS
62 KT WITH PEAK SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT THE SAME. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 65 KT AND THIS MAY BE SLIGHTLY GENEROUS.

AS TOMAS PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY...IT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES AND HAS A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY TO
REINTENSIFY. WHILE THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EXPECTED VERY STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR AND STABLE/DRY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY
RAPID WEAKENING. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS/LGEM/GFDL MODELS AND IS SLIGHTLY LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. ALTERNATIVELY...IF THE INNER CORE OF TOMAS DOES NOT
QUICKLY REORGANIZE...THE SYSTEM MAY SIMPLY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FROM
HERE ON IN. WHILE THE FORECAST HERE CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW AT DAY 4...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT INSTEAD
THE SYSTEM COULD EVOLVE INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW AFTER INTERACTING
WITH THE STRONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AT 35/12...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF COMBINED INFLUENCE OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE TO
ITS EAST AND A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT THE SAME
SPEED FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 36 H AND NEARLY ALL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS. HOWEVER...BEYOND 36 H...THE MODEL SUITE
SHOWS A TREMENDOUS DIVERGENCE THAT FALLS INTO TWO FACTIONS. THE
NORTHERN GROUP...WITH MEMBERS AT FIVE DAYS JUST SOUTHEAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND...INCLUDE THE HWRF/GFDL/NOGAPS MODELS. THE ECMWF
LIKELY WOULD HAVE ALSO BEEN EXPLICITLY INCLUDED HERE...BUT IT
BECOMES ABSORBED BY A LARGE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM AFTER DAY THREE. THE
SOUTHERN GROUP...WITH MEMBERS AT FIVE DAYS JUST NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN...INCLUDE THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE/UKMET. THE FORECAST TRACK
CHOSEN LEANS MORE TOWARD THE LATTER BUNCH AND IS CONSIDERABLY SOUTH
OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH IS AN UNREALISTIC PREDICTION...AND
SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT ALMOST GOES WITHOUT
SAYING...THE EXTENDED FORECAST OF THIS SYSTEM IS VERY UNCERTAIN.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND LIFE-
THREATENING MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 20.3N 73.8W 65 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 22.0N 72.6W 70 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 23.9N 71.5W 80 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 24.8N 70.8W 75 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 25.4N 69.6W 55 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 26.5N 67.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 09/1800Z 26.5N 63.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 10/1800Z 27.0N 61.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#64 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 05, 2010 6:40 pm

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
800 PM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010

...TOMAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND...
HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 73.1W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120
MILES...195 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. STORM SURGE FLOODING IN
EASTERN CUBA AND WESTERN HAITI SHOULD DIMINISH ON SATURDAY. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN HAITI...AND ARE EXPECTED IN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD
SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT
OR SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS

NNNN
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#65 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 05, 2010 9:39 pm

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 PM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010

...TOMAS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 72.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM WNW OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN COAST FROM
THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A NORTHEASTWARD
OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF TOMAS WILL MOVE NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
...AND TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATE SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120
MILES...195 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
AND PUERTO RICO. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA. IN THE LAST 24 HOURS...HIGUEY IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REPORTED 10.35 INCHES...263 MM...OF RAINFALL...
WHILE POLO BARAHONA REPORTED 8.99 INCHES...228 MM.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING OR EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
ONGOING OR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. STORM SURGE FLOODING IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD DIMINISH ON SATURDAY. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS

NNNN
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#66 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 05, 2010 9:49 pm

TCDAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 PM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010

BEFORE DEPARTING EARLIER THIS EVENING...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A MAXIMUM 850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND
OF 57 KT AND A RISING CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF
THE CYCLONE HAD ALSO BECOME A BIT DISHEVELED EARLIER THIS EVENING
...HOWEVER COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE AGAIN INCREASED NEAR THE ESTIMATED
CENTER LOCATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT...AND THE
NEXT AIRCRAFT MISSION OVERNIGHT WILL HELP DETERMINE IF TOMAS HAS
WEAKENED BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY. THE 20 KT OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR
OVER TOMAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA COULD BE PREVENTING THE CYCLONE FROM
STRENGTHENING FURTHER. CONSISTENT WITH THIS THINKING...AIRCRAFT
DATA AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE VORTEX IS NOW
TILTED NORTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND THE RAPID
DETERIORATION OF THE MID-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMICS AS
INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...TOMAS MAY
HAVE PEAKED IN INTENSITY. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE SHEAR INCREASES
FURTHER...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD...AND SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE
THROUGH 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING TO REMNANT LOW STATUS
IN 96 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM MODEL...WHICH IS
DESIGNED TO HANDLE CHANGING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

THE LAST FEW AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT TOMAS IS MOVING MORE TO
THE RIGHT...OR EASTWARD...THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/11 KT. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN...WHICH IS DOMINATED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THAT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT CUTS OFF OFFSHORE OF THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. IN 2 OR 3 DAYS. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN
THE TRACK GUIDANCE AS TO WHETHER TOMAS WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD
INTO THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OR BE
SHEARED APART AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET
FAVOR THE LATTER SOLUTION AND LIE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE GFDL...HWRF AND NOGAPS ARE FARTHER NORTH
WITH A DEEPER CYCLONE. GIVEN THE EXTREME SHEAR VALUES LATE IN THE
PERIOD AND AN ENVIRONMENT THAT APPEARS UNFAVORABLE FOR DEEP
CONVECTION...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT TOMAS WILL REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH
TO BE PULLED TOO FAR NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE
SOUTHERN SOLUTION AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND THE TRACKS OF THE UKMET...GFS...AND ECMWF MODELS THROUGH 48
HOURS. AT DAYS 3 AND 4...THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE ADJUSTED FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.

EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF TOMAS HAS PASSED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND TOMAS WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES OVER
PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0300Z 20.8N 72.8W 65 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 22.4N 71.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 23.9N 70.9W 60 KT
36HR VT 07/1200Z 24.7N 70.1W 55 KT
48HR VT 08/0000Z 25.0N 68.8W 45 KT
72HR VT 09/0000Z 26.0N 66.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 10/0000Z 26.0N 63.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#67 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 06, 2010 6:48 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
800 AM EDT SAT NOV 06 2010

...CENTER OF TOMAS MOVING AWAY FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE
OPEN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 70.9W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL LIKELY
BE LOWERED LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.9 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THE CENTER OF TOMAS WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND PUERTO RICO. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WHICH COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING THIS MORNING IN
PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
WINDS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD
DIMINISH LATER TODAY. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#68 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 06, 2010 9:48 am

WTNT31 KNHC 061444
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM EDT SAT NOV 06 2010

...TOMAS MOVING INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC...ALL COASTAL WARNINGS
DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 70.6W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.6 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A NORTHEASTWARD
OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE EAST
EXPECTED BY MONDAY. THE CENTER OF TOMAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THIS MORNING.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE
HUNTER DATA IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS.

WIND...WINDS OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD DIMINISH TODAY.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
SHOULD DIMINISH TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#69 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 06, 2010 10:04 am

Discussion was released minutes after 11 AM.

000
WTNT41 KNHC 061502
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM EDT SAT NOV 06 2010

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 69 KT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF TOMAS...WITH SFMR WINDS
OF 54 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN IN THE 990-992 MB
RANGE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL FIXES. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED DOWNWARD TO 55 KT. THE STORM STILL HAS
A SYMMETRIC BANDED CONVECTIVE PATTERN...AND A RECENT WINDSAT
OVERPASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE. HOWEVER...
COLD-AIR CLOUDS ARE PRESENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR THE WESTERN
EDGE OF CONVECTION...INDICATING THAT A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING
THE CYCLONE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/14. ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TOMAS
SHOULD SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HR AS PRESSURES
RISES TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND FALL TO THE EAST OF IT.
AFTER THAT TIME...ANOTHER ROUND OF BAROCLINIC CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD
OCCUR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH A NEW DEEP-LAYER LOW
DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF TOMAS. WHILE THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...THEY ALL
FORECAST THIS NEW SYSTEM TO TURN TOMAS EASTWARD. THERE REMAINS A
LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE AFTER 48 HR...AS THE
GFS/ECMWF FAVORING A SLOWER MOTION AT LOWER LATITUDE...WHILE
GFDL/HWRF/NOGAPS/UKMET/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN NOW FAVOR A FASTER MOTION
AT HIGHER LATITUDE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THESE
EXTREMES IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED...AND IS SLOWER THAN THE
CONSENSUS MODELS. THE NEW TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 24 HR...AND A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH THEREAFTER.

TOMAS HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING EVEN THOUGH THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
REMAINS LIGHT AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM. BASED ON
THIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 24 HR
OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRUCTURE...THERE IS STILL
SOME CHANCE OF RE-INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS TIME. TOMAS SHOULD
ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF COOLER/DRIER AIR AND INCREASING
WIND SHEAR AFTER 24 HR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A STEADY AND POSSIBLY
RAPID WEAKENING. THE LATTER PART OF THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HR AND
TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 120 HR. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY TOMAS
COULD UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION INSTEAD OF
DEGENERATION...ESPECIALLY IF IT TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY COURSE AND
INTERACTS WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BAROCLINIC LOW.

TOMAS IS NOW FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH AND EAST THAT THE THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS HAS DIMINISHED OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 23.1N 70.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 24.1N 69.9W 55 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 24.8N 69.3W 55 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 25.1N 68.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 25.4N 66.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 09/1200Z 26.5N 62.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 10/1200Z 28.0N 58.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#70 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 06, 2010 3:54 pm

TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM EDT SAT NOV 06 2010

TOMAS HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND BRIEFLY AN
EYE MAY HAVE TRIED TO FORM. A PARTIAL EYEWALL WAS ALSO PRESENT IN
THE 1743Z AQUA MICROWAVE IMAGERY. IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...
HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS NO LONGER PRESENT AND THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE IS SHOWING LESS BANDING CHARACTERISTICS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF
TAFB AND SAB DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS.

DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41046 INDICATES THAT THE STRONG COLD FRONT
OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IS NOW IMPACTING THE OUTER
CIRCULATION OF TOMAS. WIND...TEMPERATURE...AND DEWPOINT
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BUOY SHOWED THAT THE FRONT HAS REACHED THAT
LOCATION. THE INNER CORE OF TOMAS APPEARS...FOR THE MOMENT...TO BE
UNAFFECTED BY THE COOLER/DRIER AIR. IT IS LIKELY THAT TOMAS WILL
SOON BEGIN ITS FINAL DEMISE WITH BOTH THE FRONTAL AIRMASS AND
INCREASINGLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IMPACTING THE CYCLONE. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT BELOW BOTH THE INTENSITY MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD DROP BELOW
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AFTER 48 H...BUT COULD OCCUR EARLIER IF
THE ANTICIPATED VERY STRONG SHEAR AND DRY AIR REMOVES ALL OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT TOMAS COULD UNDERGO
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION INSTEAD OF DEGENERATION...ESPECIALLY IF IT
GOES NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND MORE STRONGLY INTERACTS WITH A
BAROCLINIC LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

TOMAS IS CURRENTLY MOVING 30/13...AS IT IS PRIMARILY BEING STEERED
BY A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE CYCLONE
SHOULD RATHER ABRUPTLY DECELERATE AND TURN TOWARD THE EAST IN ABOUT
12-24 H...ONCE THE DEEP CONVECTION IS EITHER DECOUPLED FROM THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OR COMPLETELY ELIMINATED. THEREAFTER...THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BE ADVECTED TOWARD THE EAST AND THEN THE NORTHEAST BY
THE LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS FARTHER NORTH AND
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT NOT AS QUICK AS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/2100Z 24.2N 70.0W 55 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 25.2N 69.3W 50 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 25.6N 68.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 25.8N 67.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 08/1800Z 26.5N 64.9W 35 KT
72HR VT 09/1800Z 28.5N 59.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 10/1800Z 31.5N 55.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#71 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 06, 2010 6:20 pm

WTNT61 KNHC 062308
TCUAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
715 PM AST SAT NOV 06 2010

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT TOMAS HAS REGAINED
HURRICANE STRENGTH...

SHORTLY BEFORE 700 PM AST...2300 UTC...A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN
TOMAS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...MAKING TOMAS A
HURRICANE AGAIN. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE
ISSUED BY 800 PM AST...0000 UTC.


SUMMARY OF 715 PM AST...2315 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 69.8W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...25 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.11 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BROWN

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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#72 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 06, 2010 6:47 pm

000
WTNT41 KNHC 062343
TCDAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
800 PM AST SAT NOV 06 2010

DESPITE THE SOMEWHAT RAGGED APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM IN INFRARED
IMAGERY...DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
TOMAS HAS RE-INTENSIFIED TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE AIRCRAFT
MEASURED A PEAK 700-MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 79 KT EAST OF THE
CENTER AND A MAXIMUM SFMR WIND OF 64 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT FOR THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE RE-INTENSIFICATION...AND THE RADII HAVE BEEN
MODIFIED ACCORDINGLY. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AS INCREASING SHEAR AND
DRY AIR SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO WEAKENING.

RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
TOMAS IS MOVING A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/13 KT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT...OR NORTH...THROUGH 36
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. BEYOND 36
HOURS...THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0000Z 25.0N 69.7W 70 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 25.7N 69.3W 60 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 26.0N 68.6W 50 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 26.0N 67.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 08/1800Z 26.5N 64.9W 35 KT
72HR VT 09/1800Z 28.5N 59.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 10/1800Z 31.5N 55.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BROWN

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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#73 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 06, 2010 9:35 pm

000
WTNT41 KNHC 070230
TCDAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 PM AST SAT NOV 06 2010

BEFORE EXITING TOMAS...THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A
700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM OF 75 KT...A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 61
KT...AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 987 MB. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE
INTENSITY HAS LEVELED OFF...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 70
KT. WHILE THE INITIAL SHEAR VALUES FROM SHIPS AND UW-CIMMS ARE
15-20 KT...TOMAS OBVIOUSLY HAS NOT YET FELT THE EFFECTS OF THIS
SHEAR IN THE INNER CORE. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GOES
CLOUD TRACK WINDS SHOW STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DRY
AIR INCHING CLOSER TO TOMAS...AND THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE
MARKEDLY IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS
SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 50 KT IN 24 HOURS. THE SHEAR...DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR...AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY
WEAKENING...REDUCING TOMAS TO A REMNANT LOW IN 3 DAYS WITH
DISSIPATION EXPECTED IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSEST TO THE
SHIPS MODEL AFTER 24 HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT TOMAS MAY BE SLOWING DOWN...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 025/9. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
GUIDANCE SLOWING TOMAS EVEN FURTHER IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER
THAT TIME...TOMAS SHOULD BE STEERED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR A DAY OR
TWO BY THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH/LOW ADVANCING INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED IN ABOUT 72
HOURS...AS WHAT IS LEFT OF TOMAS IS PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW THE CIRCULATION
OF TOMAS DISSIPATING BY 96 HOURS...AND DISSIPATION IS ALSO
INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL BY THAT TIME. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THE UKMET MAINTAINS TOMAS AS A DEEPER CYCLONE AND TAKES IT
FARTHER NORTHWARD BEFORE MERGING IT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER...
THIS SCENARIO SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT TOMAS SHOULD HAVE DIFFICULTY
REMAINING A DEEP CYCLONE DUE TO THE SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0300Z 25.2N 69.6W 70 KT
12HR VT 07/1200Z 25.8N 69.2W 60 KT
24HR VT 08/0000Z 26.1N 68.1W 50 KT
36HR VT 08/1200Z 26.5N 66.1W 40 KT
48HR VT 09/0000Z 27.4N 63.2W 35 KT
72HR VT 10/0000Z 31.0N 57.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#74 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 07, 2010 6:20 am

000
WTNT41 KNHC 070848
TCDAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 AM AST SUN NOV 07 2010

AROUND 06Z...A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C
DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER...AND A WARM SPOT OR EYE FEATURE BRIEFLY
BECAME EVIDENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY. SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...
CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME
FLATTENED ON THE WEST SIDE AS WESTERLY SHEAR HAS STARTED TO IMPINGE
ON THE CYCLONE. A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0/65 KT FROM
TAFB ALONG WITH AODT AND UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES OF T4.3/72 KT
SUPPORT MAINTAINING A SYNOPTIC INTENSITY OF 70 KT AT 06Z.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT DISHEVELED APPEARANCE TO THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD MASS...THE 09Z ADVISORY INTENSITY IS BEING LOWERED TO 65 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/06. SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SUGGESTS THAT TOMAS HAS SLOWED DOWN AND TURNED
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SINCE THE 06Z FIXES. A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS
INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD EASTWARD-MOVING TROUGH GRADUALLY DECOUPLES THE LOW- AND
UPPER-LEVELS CIRCULATIONS...LEAVING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO BE
STEERED EASTWARD BY WEAKER FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BY 48
HOURS...TOMAS IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS THEN EXPECTED TO BE
CAPTURED BY AND PULLED NORTHEASTWARD INTO A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE AFTER 72 HOURS. MOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS INDICATE 40-50 KT
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS BEGINNING TO UNDERCUT THE
HIGH-LEVEL OUTFLOW LAYER OF TOMAS. AS A RESULT...ASSOCIATED STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12
HOURS...AND TROPICAL CYCLONE DISSIPATION SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY 48
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM
INTENSITY MODELS. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WESTERLY
SHEAR AND VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR COULD RESULT IN MORE RAPID
WEAKENING THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THE 34-KT WIND RADII AND 12-FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOYS 41047 AND
41047. THE INCREASE IN THE OUTER WIND FIELD IS DUE TO A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING CLOSER TO TOMAS...WHICH HAS
ACTED TO TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
HURRICANE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0900Z 26.2N 68.8W 65 KT
12HR VT 07/1800Z 26.5N 68.2W 60 KT
24HR VT 08/0600Z 26.8N 66.6W 50 KT
36HR VT 08/1800Z 27.5N 64.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 09/0600Z 28.6N 61.3W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 10/0600Z 33.0N 55.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#75 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 07, 2010 9:41 am

WTNT31 KNHC 071440
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM AST SUN NOV 07 2010

...TOMAS WEAKENING RAPIDLY...EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 69.6W
ABOUT 525 MI...840 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.6 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND
TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THIS
EVENING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
FROM THE CENTER...PRIMARILY TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

WTNT41 KNHC 071441
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM AST SUN NOV 07 2010

TOMAS HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS WITHERED AWAY...DUE TO ABOUT 35 KT OF WESTERLY
SHEAR...WITH ONLY A VERY SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING NEAR
THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KT...BASED
ON A BLEND OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AND WIND REPORTS FROM BUOY 41047. TOMAS ALSO APPEARS TO
BE GRADUALLY LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION...AND SHIP REPORTS SUGGEST
THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BE DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE
GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING FURTHER...TO NEAR
50 KT IN 12 HOURS. THIS...COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 40 PERCENT...AND COOL WATERS SHOULD CAUSE
TOMAS TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

AN 0624 UTC AMSU OVERPASS AND A 1014 UTC SSMIS IMAGE INDICATE THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED ABOUT 50 N MI WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATE. THESE DATA ALSO SUGGEST THAT TOMAS HAS SLOWED DOWN
SUBSTANTIALLY AND TURNED NORTHWARD DURING THE PAST 12-18 HOURS...
RESULTING IN AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 005/5. THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A MOTION BETWEEN NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF A STRENGTHENING LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THIS MUCH LARGER LOW SHOULD ABSORB WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
TOMAS IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/1500Z 26.0N 69.6W 50 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 26.4N 68.7W 45 KT...POST-TROPICAL
24HR VT 08/1200Z 26.9N 66.5W 35 KT...POST-TROPICAL
36HR VT 09/0000Z 27.9N 63.9W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 09/1200Z 30.0N 61.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 10/1200Z 36.0N 57.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#76 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 07, 2010 3:34 pm

Last Advisory


TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM AST SUN NOV 07 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND MODEL ANALYSES
INDICATE THAT TOMAS HAS ACQUIRED FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOW WRAPPING INTO THE INNER-CORE REGION...
AND ANY LINGERING DEEP CLOUDINESS APPEARS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THEREFORE...TOMAS IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 1500 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 45-50 KT
RANGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT...AND THAT IS THE BASIS FOR
THE INITIAL INTENSITY. STEADY WEAKENING OF THE POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/3. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A MUCH
LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.

FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/2100Z 26.1N 69.1W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12HR VT 08/0600Z 26.3N 67.9W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24HR VT 08/1800Z 26.8N 65.6W 30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36HR VT 09/0600Z 28.4N 62.8W 25 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT 09/1800Z 30.6N 60.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 10/1800Z 37.0N 56.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
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