KNHC 311147
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
800 AM AST SUN OCT 31 2010
...TOMAS SLOWLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...HEAVY RAINS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 63.3W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM W OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
THESE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.3 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
TOMAS WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS
MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
TODAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL OCCURRING WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA...BUT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY.
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND
SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TODAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH TOMAS.
STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH TODAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
ATL : TOMAS - Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories
ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 31 2010
...TOMAS WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 63.7W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM W OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENTS OF BARBADOS...FRANCE...AND ST. LUCIA HAVE
DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.7 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON MONDAY. TOMAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND
SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TODAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH TOMAS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
NNNN
311444
TCDAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 31 2010
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TOMAS HAS GENERALLY DECREASED DURING
THE LAST FEW HOURS AND BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME A LITTLE LESS
ORGANIZED. IN ADDITION...RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES NO LONGER SHOW AN
EYE. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 80
KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE NEXT AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE
INTENSITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN
PLACE TO THE NORTH OF TOMAS. SOME OF THE MODELS EVEN SHOW A SOUTH
OF WEST MOTION DURING THAT TIME. IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO...CAUSING THE RIDGE TO ERODE. TOMAS IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IN 4 TO 5 DAYS AS IT FEELS THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE LAST CYCLE...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
ALTHOUGH TOMAS LIES OVER AN AREA OF HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AS SHOWN BY
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN FACT...SEVERAL OF THE RELIABLE
MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GFDL...SHOW THE VORTEX
TILTING TO THE NORTHEAST WITH HEIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN THE
WEAKENING OF THE HURRICANE IN THOSE MODELS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED DOWNWARD THROUGH 48
HOURS BUT REMAINS HIGHER THAN ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DURING
THAT TIME. A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED
DURING THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME...AND THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY
STRENGTHENING.
ALTHOUGH TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH TONIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/1500Z 14.0N 63.7W 80 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 14.5N 65.1W 75 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 14.9N 67.2W 75 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 15.0N 69.1W 75 KT
48HR VT 02/1200Z 15.0N 70.6W 75 KT
72HR VT 03/1200Z 15.0N 72.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 04/1200Z 15.5N 73.5W 95 KT
120HR VT 05/1200Z 17.0N 73.5W 100 KT
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 31 2010
...TOMAS WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 63.7W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM W OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENTS OF BARBADOS...FRANCE...AND ST. LUCIA HAVE
DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.7 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON MONDAY. TOMAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND
SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TODAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH TOMAS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
NNNN
311444
TCDAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 31 2010
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TOMAS HAS GENERALLY DECREASED DURING
THE LAST FEW HOURS AND BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME A LITTLE LESS
ORGANIZED. IN ADDITION...RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES NO LONGER SHOW AN
EYE. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 80
KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE NEXT AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE
INTENSITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN
PLACE TO THE NORTH OF TOMAS. SOME OF THE MODELS EVEN SHOW A SOUTH
OF WEST MOTION DURING THAT TIME. IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO...CAUSING THE RIDGE TO ERODE. TOMAS IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IN 4 TO 5 DAYS AS IT FEELS THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE LAST CYCLE...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
ALTHOUGH TOMAS LIES OVER AN AREA OF HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AS SHOWN BY
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN FACT...SEVERAL OF THE RELIABLE
MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GFDL...SHOW THE VORTEX
TILTING TO THE NORTHEAST WITH HEIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN THE
WEAKENING OF THE HURRICANE IN THOSE MODELS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED DOWNWARD THROUGH 48
HOURS BUT REMAINS HIGHER THAN ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DURING
THAT TIME. A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED
DURING THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME...AND THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY
STRENGTHENING.
ALTHOUGH TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH TONIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/1500Z 14.0N 63.7W 80 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 14.5N 65.1W 75 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 14.9N 67.2W 75 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 15.0N 69.1W 75 KT
48HR VT 02/1200Z 15.0N 70.6W 75 KT
72HR VT 03/1200Z 15.0N 72.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 04/1200Z 15.5N 73.5W 95 KT
120HR VT 05/1200Z 17.0N 73.5W 100 KT
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
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- Category 5
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WTNT31 KNHC 312030
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM AST SUN OCT 31 2010
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS TOMAS WEAKER...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 64.9W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM W OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH
TONIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
----------------------
WTNT21 KNHC 312030
TCMAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
2100 UTC SUN OCT 31 2010
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 64.9W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 80SE 40SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 105SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 64.9W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 64.3W
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.7N 66.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 15SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.0N 68.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 15SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.0N 69.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 15SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.0N 71.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 65SE 60SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.3N 72.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 70SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N 73.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 18.5N 72.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 64.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
------------------------
WTNT41 KNHC 312031
TCDAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM AST SUN OCT 31 2010
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
TOMAS HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE MORE. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MAXIMUM
850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 74 KT...AN SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 64
KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 994 MB. THESE DATA SUPPORT
MAINTAINING TOMAS AS A HURRICANE WITH AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 65
KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN
BEFORE...280/10. TOMAS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
BEYOND THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND
GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AS THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN DUE
TO A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES AS TO WHERE AND WHEN THE NORTHWARD TURN OCCURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE NEXT 3 TO
4 DAYS...AND THEN LIES A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE LAST TRACK TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL...ECMWF...AND
UKMET MODELS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST POINTS ARE OF LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL.
SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 20-25 KT AND SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND IN
THE GUIDANCE AND IS ONCE AGAIN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD...BRINGING TOMAS
BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BEYOND A COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN WHILE TOMAS REMAINS OVER
FAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS. ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS RESPOND
AND SHOW THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY RANGE...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/2100Z 14.4N 64.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 14.7N 66.4W 60 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 15.0N 68.3W 55 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 15.0N 69.9W 55 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 15.0N 71.3W 60 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 15.3N 72.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 04/1800Z 16.0N 73.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 05/1800Z 18.5N 72.5W 90 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM AST SUN OCT 31 2010
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS TOMAS WEAKER...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 64.9W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM W OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH
TONIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
----------------------
WTNT21 KNHC 312030
TCMAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
2100 UTC SUN OCT 31 2010
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 64.9W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 80SE 40SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 105SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 64.9W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 64.3W
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.7N 66.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 15SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.0N 68.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 15SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.0N 69.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 15SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.0N 71.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 65SE 60SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.3N 72.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 70SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N 73.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 18.5N 72.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 64.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
------------------------
WTNT41 KNHC 312031
TCDAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM AST SUN OCT 31 2010
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
TOMAS HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE MORE. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MAXIMUM
850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 74 KT...AN SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 64
KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 994 MB. THESE DATA SUPPORT
MAINTAINING TOMAS AS A HURRICANE WITH AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 65
KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN
BEFORE...280/10. TOMAS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
BEYOND THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND
GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AS THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN DUE
TO A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES AS TO WHERE AND WHEN THE NORTHWARD TURN OCCURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE NEXT 3 TO
4 DAYS...AND THEN LIES A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE LAST TRACK TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL...ECMWF...AND
UKMET MODELS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST POINTS ARE OF LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL.
SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 20-25 KT AND SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND IN
THE GUIDANCE AND IS ONCE AGAIN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD...BRINGING TOMAS
BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BEYOND A COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN WHILE TOMAS REMAINS OVER
FAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS. ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS RESPOND
AND SHOW THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY RANGE...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/2100Z 14.4N 64.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 14.7N 66.4W 60 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 15.0N 68.3W 55 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 15.0N 69.9W 55 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 15.0N 71.3W 60 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 15.3N 72.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 04/1800Z 16.0N 73.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 05/1800Z 18.5N 72.5W 90 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 142744
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories
000
WTNT31 KNHC 010234
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 PM AST SUN OCT 31 2010
...TOMAS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 66.5W
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM NE OF CURACAO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.5 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A WESTWARD MOTION
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
WTNT41 KNHC 010234
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 PM AST SUN OCT 31 2010
RECENT MICROWAVE DATA...PARTICULARLY A 0045 UTC SSMIS PASS...
INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF TOMAS IS NOW LOCATED ABOUT
140 N MI TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND HAS BEEN MOVING A
LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO
T3.0/4.0 FROM TAFB...T2.5/3.5 FROM SAB...AND T3.4/4.3 FROM THE
ADT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 55 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. THIS INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS...BUT
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE MADE WHEN THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATES THE CYCLONE LATER TONIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN REQUIRED TO THE INTENSITY
FORECAST ON THIS ADVISORY. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BELOW THE
OUTFLOW LAYER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT TOMAS FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AS SHOWN BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND ALL THE INTENSITY
MODELS ARE SHOWING CONTINUED WEAKENING DURING THAT TIME. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD...LEVELING THE
INTENSITY AT 40 KT BETWEEN 24 AND 48 HOURS. THIS IS STILL ABOVE
MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT TOMAS COULD WEAKEN MORE THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AFTER 72 HOURS...AND
THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR TOMAS TO RESTRENGTHEN...POSSIBLY
BACK TO HURRICANE INTENSITY...OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
NOW THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF TOMAS HAVE BECOME
INCREASINGLY DECOUPLED...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS ACCELERATED OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED TO BE 270/13.
THE SOUTHWESTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION HAS CAUSED THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK TO BE A LITTLE SOUTH AND FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF TOMAS...BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SPEED DIFFERENCES MAINLY ON DAYS 4 AND 5 WHEN A DEEP MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.
THE GFDN AND HWRF ARE STILL THE FASTEST MODELS...BUT THEY HAVE BEEN
JOINED BY THE ECMWF...MAKING A FASTER SCENARIO A LITTLE MORE
CREDIBLE BY DAY 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0300Z 14.2N 66.5W 55 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 14.4N 68.1W 45 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 14.7N 69.8W 40 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 14.8N 71.6W 40 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 14.8N 73.1W 40 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 15.1N 74.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 05/0000Z 16.5N 74.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 06/0000Z 20.0N 72.5W 70 KT
$$
FORECASTER BERG
WTNT31 KNHC 010234
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 PM AST SUN OCT 31 2010
...TOMAS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 66.5W
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM NE OF CURACAO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.5 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A WESTWARD MOTION
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
WTNT41 KNHC 010234
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 PM AST SUN OCT 31 2010
RECENT MICROWAVE DATA...PARTICULARLY A 0045 UTC SSMIS PASS...
INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF TOMAS IS NOW LOCATED ABOUT
140 N MI TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND HAS BEEN MOVING A
LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO
T3.0/4.0 FROM TAFB...T2.5/3.5 FROM SAB...AND T3.4/4.3 FROM THE
ADT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 55 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. THIS INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS...BUT
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE MADE WHEN THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATES THE CYCLONE LATER TONIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN REQUIRED TO THE INTENSITY
FORECAST ON THIS ADVISORY. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BELOW THE
OUTFLOW LAYER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT TOMAS FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AS SHOWN BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND ALL THE INTENSITY
MODELS ARE SHOWING CONTINUED WEAKENING DURING THAT TIME. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD...LEVELING THE
INTENSITY AT 40 KT BETWEEN 24 AND 48 HOURS. THIS IS STILL ABOVE
MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT TOMAS COULD WEAKEN MORE THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AFTER 72 HOURS...AND
THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR TOMAS TO RESTRENGTHEN...POSSIBLY
BACK TO HURRICANE INTENSITY...OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
NOW THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF TOMAS HAVE BECOME
INCREASINGLY DECOUPLED...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS ACCELERATED OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED TO BE 270/13.
THE SOUTHWESTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION HAS CAUSED THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK TO BE A LITTLE SOUTH AND FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF TOMAS...BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SPEED DIFFERENCES MAINLY ON DAYS 4 AND 5 WHEN A DEEP MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.
THE GFDN AND HWRF ARE STILL THE FASTEST MODELS...BUT THEY HAVE BEEN
JOINED BY THE ECMWF...MAKING A FASTER SCENARIO A LITTLE MORE
CREDIBLE BY DAY 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0300Z 14.2N 66.5W 55 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 14.4N 68.1W 45 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 14.7N 69.8W 40 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 14.8N 71.6W 40 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 14.8N 73.1W 40 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 15.1N 74.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 05/0000Z 16.5N 74.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 06/0000Z 20.0N 72.5W 70 KT
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 142744
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM AST MON NOV 01 2010
...TOMAS WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 68.7W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM NNE OF CURACAO
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY...BUT
RESTRENGTHENING COULD BEGIN BY LATE TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
WTNT41 KNHC 011438
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM AST MON NOV 01 2010
TOMAS IS A HIGHLY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
DISPLACED MORE THAN 100 MILES TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS RECENTLY
FORMED JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO FALL...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF DUE WEST...AND THE LATEST
12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/12. A GENERAL WESTWARD
HEADING WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW. BY WEDNESDAY...A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS LOW OR TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. AS THIS
OCCURS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS AND THEN CAUSE TOMAS TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE LATEST TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...MAINLY DUE TO THE
RECENT SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION. ALTHOUGH THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...IT ENDS UP ON THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BY DAYS 4 AND 5.
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KT AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR COULD CAUSE
A LITTLE MORE WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT
TIME...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND THE OTHER ATMOSPHERIC
AND OCEANIC PARAMETERS SHOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING. ALL OF
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS TOMAS RE-INTENSIFYING...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 48
HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT THEME. THE NEW WIND
SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE
INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/1500Z 13.6N 68.7W 40 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 13.7N 70.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 13.8N 72.1W 35 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 14.0N 73.3W 40 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 14.3N 74.2W 45 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 15.2N 74.8W 55 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 17.5N 74.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 21.5N 71.5W 65 KT
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM AST MON NOV 01 2010
...TOMAS WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 68.7W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM NNE OF CURACAO
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY...BUT
RESTRENGTHENING COULD BEGIN BY LATE TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
WTNT41 KNHC 011438
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM AST MON NOV 01 2010
TOMAS IS A HIGHLY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
DISPLACED MORE THAN 100 MILES TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS RECENTLY
FORMED JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO FALL...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF DUE WEST...AND THE LATEST
12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/12. A GENERAL WESTWARD
HEADING WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW. BY WEDNESDAY...A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS LOW OR TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. AS THIS
OCCURS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS AND THEN CAUSE TOMAS TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE LATEST TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...MAINLY DUE TO THE
RECENT SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION. ALTHOUGH THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...IT ENDS UP ON THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BY DAYS 4 AND 5.
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KT AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR COULD CAUSE
A LITTLE MORE WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT
TIME...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND THE OTHER ATMOSPHERIC
AND OCEANIC PARAMETERS SHOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING. ALL OF
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS TOMAS RE-INTENSIFYING...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 48
HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT THEME. THE NEW WIND
SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE
INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/1500Z 13.6N 68.7W 40 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 13.7N 70.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 13.8N 72.1W 35 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 14.0N 73.3W 40 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 14.3N 74.2W 45 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 15.2N 74.8W 55 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 17.5N 74.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 21.5N 71.5W 65 KT
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories
000
WTNT31 KNHC 012041
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM AST MON NOV 01 2010
...DISORGANIZED TOMAS MOVING TOWARD THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 69.7W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNE OF ARUBA
ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
000
WTNT41 KNHC 012045
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM AST MON NOV 01 2010
ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF TOMAS
TODAY...IT IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND LACKS BANDING. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW A SERIES OF ARC CLOUDS PROPAGATING AWAY FROM THE
CONVECTIVE MASS...INDICATIVE OF DRY AIR NEAR THE CORE. AN ASCAT
PASS AROUND 1400 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE.
SINCE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SINCE THAT TIME...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES.
TOMAS IS STILL MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/10. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITHIN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH
OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY MID TO LATE
WEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN
AND THEN MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.
THEREAFTER... A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS FORECAST AS TOMAS BECOMES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE
LEFT ONCE AGAIN THROUGH 72 HOURS....AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR A BLEND
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
CYCLONE. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THIS UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR ANOTHER 12-24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT MUCH
STRENGTHENING. AFTER THAT TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SUGGEST THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
ALLOW THE STORM TO GAIN STRENGTH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/2100Z 13.4N 69.7W 40 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 13.4N 71.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 13.7N 73.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 14.0N 74.2W 50 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 14.3N 74.9W 55 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 15.1N 75.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 18.0N 73.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 21.0N 71.0W 70 KT
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
WTNT31 KNHC 012041
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM AST MON NOV 01 2010
...DISORGANIZED TOMAS MOVING TOWARD THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 69.7W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNE OF ARUBA
ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
000
WTNT41 KNHC 012045
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM AST MON NOV 01 2010
ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF TOMAS
TODAY...IT IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND LACKS BANDING. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW A SERIES OF ARC CLOUDS PROPAGATING AWAY FROM THE
CONVECTIVE MASS...INDICATIVE OF DRY AIR NEAR THE CORE. AN ASCAT
PASS AROUND 1400 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE.
SINCE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SINCE THAT TIME...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES.
TOMAS IS STILL MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/10. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITHIN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH
OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY MID TO LATE
WEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN
AND THEN MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.
THEREAFTER... A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS FORECAST AS TOMAS BECOMES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE
LEFT ONCE AGAIN THROUGH 72 HOURS....AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR A BLEND
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
CYCLONE. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THIS UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR ANOTHER 12-24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT MUCH
STRENGTHENING. AFTER THAT TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SUGGEST THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
ALLOW THE STORM TO GAIN STRENGTH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/2100Z 13.4N 69.7W 40 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 13.4N 71.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 13.7N 73.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 14.0N 74.2W 50 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 14.3N 74.9W 55 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 15.1N 75.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 18.0N 73.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 21.0N 71.0W 70 KT
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Florida1118
- Category 5
- Posts: 1805
- Age: 27
- Joined: Sat Jun 19, 2010 12:57 pm
- Location: Tampa, Florida
000
WTNT31 KNHC 020232
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 PM EDT MON NOV 01 2010
...TOMAS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...NO
CHANGE IN INTENSITY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 70.8W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...HAITI...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.8 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A WESTWARD MOTION
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
WTNT31 KNHC 020232
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 PM EDT MON NOV 01 2010
...TOMAS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...NO
CHANGE IN INTENSITY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 70.8W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...HAITI...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.8 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A WESTWARD MOTION
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 142744
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories
000
WTNT41 KNHC 020234
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 PM EDT MON NOV 01 2010
THERE HAS BEEN NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO THE STRUCTURE OF TOMAS OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION HAD DIMINISHED AT ONE
POINT THIS EVENING...BUT A LINEAR BAND HAS RECENTLY RE-DEVELOPED
ABOUT 60-90 N MI EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH SATELLITE
ESTIMATES OF T2.5/3.0 FROM TAFB AND T2.6/2.7 FROM THE OBJECTIVE
ADT. ALTHOUGH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE
CYCLONE...IT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN 24-36 HOURS. IN
ADDITION...THE MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE...AND TOMAS WILL BE MOVING OVER A REGION OF INCREASED
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. ALL THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT TOMAS SHOULD
RE-STRENGTHEN...AND THE INTENSITY MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT IT COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN BY DAY 3. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE NEW INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND
NO CHANGES WERE REQUIRED ON THIS ADVISORY.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT TOMAS HAS CEASED MOVING
SOUTH OF DUE WEST AND NOW HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 270/10. TRACK
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TOMAS...IN ITS WEAKENED STATE...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FOR THE NEXT 36
HOURS OR SO. ONCE THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN...THE DEEPER
VORTEX SHOULD BE STEERED NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. SINCE THE HWRF AND GFDN APPEAR TO BE NORTHERN OUTLIERS AND
THE NOGAPS DOES NOT EVEN PULL TOMAS OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...
GFDL...AND UKMET. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE
WEST ON THIS CYCLE...MAINLY IN THE DAY 2 AND 3 TIME FRAME...AND THE
NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0300Z 13.5N 70.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 13.7N 72.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 13.9N 73.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 14.2N 74.9W 50 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 14.6N 75.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 16.0N 75.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 18.5N 73.5W 80 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 07/0000Z 21.0N 70.5W 70 KT...OVER WATER
$$
FORECASTER BERG
WTNT41 KNHC 020234
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 PM EDT MON NOV 01 2010
THERE HAS BEEN NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO THE STRUCTURE OF TOMAS OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION HAD DIMINISHED AT ONE
POINT THIS EVENING...BUT A LINEAR BAND HAS RECENTLY RE-DEVELOPED
ABOUT 60-90 N MI EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH SATELLITE
ESTIMATES OF T2.5/3.0 FROM TAFB AND T2.6/2.7 FROM THE OBJECTIVE
ADT. ALTHOUGH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE
CYCLONE...IT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN 24-36 HOURS. IN
ADDITION...THE MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE...AND TOMAS WILL BE MOVING OVER A REGION OF INCREASED
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. ALL THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT TOMAS SHOULD
RE-STRENGTHEN...AND THE INTENSITY MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT IT COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN BY DAY 3. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE NEW INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND
NO CHANGES WERE REQUIRED ON THIS ADVISORY.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT TOMAS HAS CEASED MOVING
SOUTH OF DUE WEST AND NOW HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 270/10. TRACK
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TOMAS...IN ITS WEAKENED STATE...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FOR THE NEXT 36
HOURS OR SO. ONCE THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN...THE DEEPER
VORTEX SHOULD BE STEERED NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. SINCE THE HWRF AND GFDN APPEAR TO BE NORTHERN OUTLIERS AND
THE NOGAPS DOES NOT EVEN PULL TOMAS OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...
GFDL...AND UKMET. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE
WEST ON THIS CYCLE...MAINLY IN THE DAY 2 AND 3 TIME FRAME...AND THE
NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0300Z 13.5N 70.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 13.7N 72.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 13.9N 73.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 14.2N 74.9W 50 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 14.6N 75.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 16.0N 75.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 18.5N 73.5W 80 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 07/0000Z 21.0N 70.5W 70 KT...OVER WATER
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Florida1118
- Category 5
- Posts: 1805
- Age: 27
- Joined: Sat Jun 19, 2010 12:57 pm
- Location: Tampa, Florida
Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories
000
WTNT21 KNHC 020231
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
0300 UTC TUE NOV 02 2010
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...HAITI...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 70.8W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 70.8W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 70.3W
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.7N 72.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...105NE 45SE 20SW 45NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.9N 73.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...105NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.2N 74.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 15SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...105NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.6N 75.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...105NE 75SE 45SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.0N 75.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 18.5N 73.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 21.0N 70.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 70.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG
WTNT21 KNHC 020231
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
0300 UTC TUE NOV 02 2010
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...HAITI...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 70.8W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 70.8W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 70.3W
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.7N 72.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...105NE 45SE 20SW 45NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.9N 73.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...105NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.2N 74.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 15SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...105NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.6N 75.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...105NE 75SE 45SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.0N 75.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 18.5N 73.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 21.0N 70.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 70.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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WTNT31 KNHC 020833
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 AM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010
...TOMAS BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 72.0W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50
MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL SLOW STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS
1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 AM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010
...TOMAS BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 72.0W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50
MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL SLOW STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS
1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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WTNT41 KNHC 020837
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 AM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010
TOMAS HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING TROPICAL
STORM. OVERNIGHT...THERE HAS BEEN A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CIRCULATION...DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY BEEN INCREASING NEAR
THE CENTER. ENHANCED IR IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS SOME BANDING
FEATURES DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. ON THE FINAL PASS
OF AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE OUTBOUND FROM THE CENTER
OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...THE MAXIMUM UNFLAGGED SFMR-MEASURED
SURFACE WIND SPEED WAS 44 KT. THE INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
UPWARD...TO 45 KT...ON THIS ADVISORY. TOMAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER WATERS OF INCREASINGLY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND ALTHOUGH
SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL PROBABLY IMPACT THE SYSTEM...THE
SHEAR IS NOT LIKELY TO BECOME VERY STRONG FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
BRINGS TOMAS TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS
SIMILAR TO THE RELIABLE LGEM GUIDANCE BUT BELOW THE GFDL FORECAST
INTENSITY PREDICTION.
BASED ON THE HURRICANE HUNTER FIXES...THE STORM CONTINUES MOVING
WESTWARD...OR ABOUT 270/10. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FOR THE
NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS REMAINS THE SAME AS BEFORE. TOMAS SHOULD BE
STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY 72-96 HOURS...THE
FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH SHOULD TURN THE
DEEPENING CYCLONE SHARPLY NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
TROUGH COULD SWING NORTHEASTWARD AND NOT COMPLETELY PICK UP TOMAS.
THEREFORE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD
LINGER NEAR NORTHERN HISPANIOLA FOR A DAY OR TWO...BEFORE THE
WESTERLIES EVENTUALLY CARRY IT FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THAT
POSSIBILITY...HOWEVER...IS NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0900Z 13.5N 72.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 13.7N 73.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 14.0N 74.4W 55 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 14.4N 75.3W 60 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 15.0N 75.8W 65 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 16.3N 75.2W 80 KT
96HR VT 06/0600Z 19.0N 72.5W 70 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 07/0600Z 21.5N 70.0W 60 KT...OVER WATER
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 AM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010
TOMAS HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING TROPICAL
STORM. OVERNIGHT...THERE HAS BEEN A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CIRCULATION...DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY BEEN INCREASING NEAR
THE CENTER. ENHANCED IR IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS SOME BANDING
FEATURES DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. ON THE FINAL PASS
OF AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE OUTBOUND FROM THE CENTER
OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...THE MAXIMUM UNFLAGGED SFMR-MEASURED
SURFACE WIND SPEED WAS 44 KT. THE INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
UPWARD...TO 45 KT...ON THIS ADVISORY. TOMAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER WATERS OF INCREASINGLY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND ALTHOUGH
SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL PROBABLY IMPACT THE SYSTEM...THE
SHEAR IS NOT LIKELY TO BECOME VERY STRONG FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
BRINGS TOMAS TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS
SIMILAR TO THE RELIABLE LGEM GUIDANCE BUT BELOW THE GFDL FORECAST
INTENSITY PREDICTION.
BASED ON THE HURRICANE HUNTER FIXES...THE STORM CONTINUES MOVING
WESTWARD...OR ABOUT 270/10. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FOR THE
NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS REMAINS THE SAME AS BEFORE. TOMAS SHOULD BE
STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY 72-96 HOURS...THE
FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH SHOULD TURN THE
DEEPENING CYCLONE SHARPLY NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
TROUGH COULD SWING NORTHEASTWARD AND NOT COMPLETELY PICK UP TOMAS.
THEREFORE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD
LINGER NEAR NORTHERN HISPANIOLA FOR A DAY OR TWO...BEFORE THE
WESTERLIES EVENTUALLY CARRY IT FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THAT
POSSIBILITY...HOWEVER...IS NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0900Z 13.5N 72.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 13.7N 73.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 14.0N 74.4W 55 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 14.4N 75.3W 60 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 15.0N 75.8W 65 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 16.3N 75.2W 80 KT
96HR VT 06/0600Z 19.0N 72.5W 70 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 07/0600Z 21.5N 70.0W 60 KT...OVER WATER
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010
...TOMAS CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 72.6W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...HAITI...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS. TOMAS COULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT TO THESE AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND TOMAS
COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH ON WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN COASTAL
AREAS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
WTNT41 KNHC 021452
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010
TOMAS HAS CERTAINLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH A
LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AND INCREASED BANDING SEEN IN
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA. HOWEVER...THE STORM HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
REPORTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 45 KT AROUND 0800 UTC. THEREFORE...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT THAT VALUE...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
THE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.5 AND 3.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB...
RESPECTIVELY. THE NEXT AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE TOMAS THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO RELAX AND THE MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS TO BE MOISTENING. THESE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...COMBINED
WITH HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...FAVOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH IS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. IN
FACT...THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX GIVES A 48 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A 30-KT INCREASE IN WIND SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS NOW AT OR JUST ABOVE THE HIGH END OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. AFTER A FEW DAYS...LAND INTERACTION...DRIER AIR...AND
SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO CAUSE WEAKENING.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE...270/9.
A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS A STRONG
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT...
TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 48
HOURS IN DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH. SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL
NOT COMPLETELY CAPTURE TOMAS AND THERE REMAINS A LARGE DISAGREEMENT
IN THE FUTURE POSITION OF THE CYCLONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD AND IS NEAR A
CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL... UKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF MODELS.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...IT APPEARS
THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER IN THE WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/1500Z 13.5N 72.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 13.7N 73.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 14.1N 75.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 14.6N 75.8W 70 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 15.2N 76.0W 80 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 17.2N 74.9W 90 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 20.0N 72.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 07/1200Z 22.5N 69.5W 60 KT
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010
...TOMAS CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 72.6W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...HAITI...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS. TOMAS COULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT TO THESE AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND TOMAS
COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH ON WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN COASTAL
AREAS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
WTNT41 KNHC 021452
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010
TOMAS HAS CERTAINLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH A
LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AND INCREASED BANDING SEEN IN
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA. HOWEVER...THE STORM HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
REPORTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 45 KT AROUND 0800 UTC. THEREFORE...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT THAT VALUE...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
THE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.5 AND 3.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB...
RESPECTIVELY. THE NEXT AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE TOMAS THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO RELAX AND THE MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS TO BE MOISTENING. THESE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...COMBINED
WITH HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...FAVOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH IS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. IN
FACT...THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX GIVES A 48 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A 30-KT INCREASE IN WIND SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS NOW AT OR JUST ABOVE THE HIGH END OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. AFTER A FEW DAYS...LAND INTERACTION...DRIER AIR...AND
SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO CAUSE WEAKENING.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE...270/9.
A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS A STRONG
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT...
TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 48
HOURS IN DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH. SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL
NOT COMPLETELY CAPTURE TOMAS AND THERE REMAINS A LARGE DISAGREEMENT
IN THE FUTURE POSITION OF THE CYCLONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD AND IS NEAR A
CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL... UKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF MODELS.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...IT APPEARS
THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER IN THE WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/1500Z 13.5N 72.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 13.7N 73.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 14.1N 75.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 14.6N 75.8W 70 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 15.2N 76.0W 80 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 17.2N 74.9W 90 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 20.0N 72.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 07/1200Z 22.5N 69.5W 60 KT
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories
000
WTNT41 KNHC 022047
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TOMAS FOUND THE
STORM WEAKER THAN IT WAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A SOMEWHAT
ELONGATED CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS
SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 35 KT. THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE OF TOMAS HAS ALSO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED.
THE CONTINUED WEAKENING...OR AT LEAST LACK OF STRENGTHENING...OF
TOMAS IS LIKELY DUE TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR...SOME WESTERLY
SHEAR...AND PERHAPS THE PROXIMITY TO SOUTH AMERICA.
HOWEVER...INTENSIFICATION STILL SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN THE EXPECTED
FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE
FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...DUE TO THE LOWER INITIAL
INTENSITY...BUT IS OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT TOMAS CONTINUES WESTWARD
AT AROUND 12 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM
EARLIER. A STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO SWING EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
TOMAS IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IN THE 2 TO 4 DAY PERIOD. BY DAY 5...MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FLATTENING AND LEAVING TOMAS BEHIND.
THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...IT APPEARS
THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER IN THE WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/2100Z 13.5N 74.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 13.8N 75.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 14.2N 76.6W 50 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 14.7N 77.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 15.3N 76.7W 70 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 18.1N 74.8W 85 KT
96HR VT 06/1800Z 21.0N 72.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 07/1800Z 22.5N 70.5W 60 KT
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
WTNT41 KNHC 022047
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TOMAS FOUND THE
STORM WEAKER THAN IT WAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A SOMEWHAT
ELONGATED CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS
SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 35 KT. THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE OF TOMAS HAS ALSO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED.
THE CONTINUED WEAKENING...OR AT LEAST LACK OF STRENGTHENING...OF
TOMAS IS LIKELY DUE TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR...SOME WESTERLY
SHEAR...AND PERHAPS THE PROXIMITY TO SOUTH AMERICA.
HOWEVER...INTENSIFICATION STILL SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN THE EXPECTED
FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE
FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...DUE TO THE LOWER INITIAL
INTENSITY...BUT IS OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT TOMAS CONTINUES WESTWARD
AT AROUND 12 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM
EARLIER. A STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO SWING EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
TOMAS IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IN THE 2 TO 4 DAY PERIOD. BY DAY 5...MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FLATTENING AND LEAVING TOMAS BEHIND.
THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...IT APPEARS
THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER IN THE WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/2100Z 13.5N 74.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 13.8N 75.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 14.2N 76.6W 50 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 14.7N 77.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 15.3N 76.7W 70 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 18.1N 74.8W 85 KT
96HR VT 06/1800Z 21.0N 72.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 07/1800Z 22.5N 70.5W 60 KT
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 142744
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories
WTNT31 KNHC 022340
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
800 PM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010
...TOMAS SLOWS DOWN...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 75.0W
ABOUT 395 MI...665 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
INTERESTS IN HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS. TOMAS COULD POSE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THOSE AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST. TOMAS IS
NOW MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...NORTHWEST...AND NORTH
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND TOMAS COULD REGAIN HURRICANE
STRENGTH BY THURSDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN COASTAL
AREAS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
800 PM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010
...TOMAS SLOWS DOWN...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 75.0W
ABOUT 395 MI...665 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
INTERESTS IN HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS. TOMAS COULD POSE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THOSE AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST. TOMAS IS
NOW MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...NORTHWEST...AND NORTH
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND TOMAS COULD REGAIN HURRICANE
STRENGTH BY THURSDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN COASTAL
AREAS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 142744
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories
WTNT31 KNHC 030237
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 PM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010
...TOMAS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 75.1W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
INTERESTS IN HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS. TOMAS COULD POSE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THOSE AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.1 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST...NORTHWEST...AND NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND TOMAS
COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH BY FRIDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 PM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010
...TOMAS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 75.1W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
INTERESTS IN HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS. TOMAS COULD POSE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THOSE AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.1 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST...NORTHWEST...AND NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND TOMAS
COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH BY FRIDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 142744
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories
WTNT31 KNHC 030237
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 PM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010
...TOMAS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 75.1W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
INTERESTS IN HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS. TOMAS COULD POSE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THOSE AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.1 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST...NORTHWEST...AND NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND TOMAS
COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH BY FRIDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
[ Post details ]
000
WTNT41 KNHC 030242
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 PM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT OVERALL CONVECTION HAS DECREASED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THOUGH A CURVED BAND HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER-DEFINED RECENTLY. MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THE CENTER
IS ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THAT BAND...AND REMNANTS OF THE OLD
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CAN BE SEEN NORTHWEST OF ARUBA. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES VARY FROM 35-55 KT...AND NO CHANGE WILL BE MADE
TO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 35 KT. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
WILL BE IN THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS TO CHECK ON THE STATUS OF TOMAS.
LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE RATHER FAVORABLE
FOR FUTURE INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW SHEAR AND VERY WARM WATER FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT IS UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER...IF TOMAS CAN TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THESE CONDITIONS. A LOOK AT GLOBAL MODEL CROSS-
SECTIONS SHOW A TILTED VORTEX INITIALLY...WITH THE GFS/UKMET
SUGGESTING A MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL VORTEX STRUCTURE FOR
STRENGTHENING IN A DAY OR TWO. THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH WAS ONE
OF THE FEW MODELS THAT PREDICTED THE WEAKENING OF TOMAS IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...HAS A QUITE DIFFERENT SCENARIO WITH A GOOD DEAL
OF TILT REMAINING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ONLY A MODEST INCREASE
IN WINDS UNTIL AFTER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE LEAVES THE CARIBBEAN.
WITH SUCH DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE...THE NEW FORECAST IS ABOUT
THE SAME THE PREVIOUS ONE...A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.
AN UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/7. A CONTINUED
SLOW-DOWN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY AS RIDGING WEAKENS TO
THE NORTH OF TOMAS. A DEEP LAYER LOW ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO
IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND TURN TOMAS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
ON THURSDAY. WHILE THE MODELS TAKE VARIOUS SPEEDS AND ROUTES TO
GET THERE...THEY REMAIN FOCUSED IN THE DIRECTION OF SOUTHWESTERN
HAITI. THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND GENERALLY
LIES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE HWRF AND GFDN
HAVE A RATHER DEEP AND INTENSE CIRCULATION...WHICH APPEAR TO BE
OUTLIERS AND BIASING TVCN...THE VARIABLE CONSENSUS MODEL...TOO FAR
TO THE NORTH.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...IT APPEARS
THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER IN THE WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/0300Z 13.7N 75.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 14.0N 75.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 04/0000Z 14.4N 76.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 04/1200Z 15.0N 76.6W 60 KT
48HR VT 05/0000Z 16.0N 76.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 06/0000Z 19.0N 73.9W 80 KT
96HR VT 07/0000Z 22.0N 71.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 08/0000Z 22.5N 69.5W 60 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 PM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010
...TOMAS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 75.1W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
INTERESTS IN HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS. TOMAS COULD POSE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THOSE AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.1 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST...NORTHWEST...AND NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND TOMAS
COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH BY FRIDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
[ Post details ]
000
WTNT41 KNHC 030242
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 PM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT OVERALL CONVECTION HAS DECREASED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THOUGH A CURVED BAND HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER-DEFINED RECENTLY. MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THE CENTER
IS ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THAT BAND...AND REMNANTS OF THE OLD
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CAN BE SEEN NORTHWEST OF ARUBA. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES VARY FROM 35-55 KT...AND NO CHANGE WILL BE MADE
TO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 35 KT. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
WILL BE IN THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS TO CHECK ON THE STATUS OF TOMAS.
LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE RATHER FAVORABLE
FOR FUTURE INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW SHEAR AND VERY WARM WATER FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT IS UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER...IF TOMAS CAN TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THESE CONDITIONS. A LOOK AT GLOBAL MODEL CROSS-
SECTIONS SHOW A TILTED VORTEX INITIALLY...WITH THE GFS/UKMET
SUGGESTING A MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL VORTEX STRUCTURE FOR
STRENGTHENING IN A DAY OR TWO. THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH WAS ONE
OF THE FEW MODELS THAT PREDICTED THE WEAKENING OF TOMAS IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...HAS A QUITE DIFFERENT SCENARIO WITH A GOOD DEAL
OF TILT REMAINING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ONLY A MODEST INCREASE
IN WINDS UNTIL AFTER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE LEAVES THE CARIBBEAN.
WITH SUCH DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE...THE NEW FORECAST IS ABOUT
THE SAME THE PREVIOUS ONE...A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.
AN UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/7. A CONTINUED
SLOW-DOWN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY AS RIDGING WEAKENS TO
THE NORTH OF TOMAS. A DEEP LAYER LOW ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO
IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND TURN TOMAS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
ON THURSDAY. WHILE THE MODELS TAKE VARIOUS SPEEDS AND ROUTES TO
GET THERE...THEY REMAIN FOCUSED IN THE DIRECTION OF SOUTHWESTERN
HAITI. THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND GENERALLY
LIES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE HWRF AND GFDN
HAVE A RATHER DEEP AND INTENSE CIRCULATION...WHICH APPEAR TO BE
OUTLIERS AND BIASING TVCN...THE VARIABLE CONSENSUS MODEL...TOO FAR
TO THE NORTH.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...IT APPEARS
THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER IN THE WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/0300Z 13.7N 75.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 14.0N 75.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 04/0000Z 14.4N 76.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 04/1200Z 15.0N 76.6W 60 KT
48HR VT 05/0000Z 16.0N 76.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 06/0000Z 19.0N 73.9W 80 KT
96HR VT 07/0000Z 22.0N 71.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 08/0000Z 22.5N 69.5W 60 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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TheEuropean
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 1796
- Age: 59
- Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:17 pm
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- Contact:
WTNT31 KNHC 030835
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 AM EDT WED NOV 03 2010
...TOMAS WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT STILL EXPECTED TO
RESTRENGTHEN...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 75.5W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSW OF PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
INTERESTS IN HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS. TOMAS COULD POSE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THOSE AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...NORTH...AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35
MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 AM EDT WED NOV 03 2010
...TOMAS WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT STILL EXPECTED TO
RESTRENGTHEN...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 75.5W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSW OF PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
INTERESTS IN HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS. TOMAS COULD POSE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THOSE AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...NORTH...AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35
MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
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TheEuropean
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- Posts: 1796
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- Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:17 pm
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- Contact:
WTNT41 KNHC 030840
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 AM EDT WED NOV 03 2010
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TOMAS A COUPLE
OF HOURS AGO FOUND AN ILL-DEFINED AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH NO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AT EITHER THE 925 MB FLIGHT LEVEL OR THE
SURFACE. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...TOMAS IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. THE PERIPHERAL CLOUD PATTERN
CONTINUES TO SHOW ORGANIZATION WITH FRAGMENTED OUTER BANDS...BUT
THERE IS LITTLE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER.
THE WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS DIFFICULT TO EXPLAIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSES FROM THE UW/CIMSS DO NOT SUGGEST MUCH
OF AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR INTO THE CIRCULATION. THE CIRRUS
MOTIONS FROM SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW
PATTERN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS WOULD
NORMALLY BE CONSISTENT WITH LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR. AMSU
AREA-AVERAGED WIND SHEAR DERIVED BY CSU/CIRA...HOWEVER...INDICATE A
RECENT INCREASE IN MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR OVER TOMAS. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE TEMPORARY AS GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT DECREASING SHEAR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO
CALL FOR TOMAS TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING
LAND. GIVEN THE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE THUS
FAR...THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE NOAA G-IV
JET IS CURRENTLY CONDUCTING A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND
TOMAS WHICH SHOULD GIVE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE DYNAMIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
THE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT WINDS SURROUNDING
THE LOCATION OF THE MINIMUM PRESSURE...SO THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER POSITION AND INITIAL MOTION. OUR BEST
GUESS AT THE LATTER IS 285/4. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN RESPONSE TO
THE STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH.
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH
LIFTING OUT AND LEAVING TOMAS BEHIND OVER THE SUBTROPICS FOR A FEW
DAYS. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A TURN TO
THE RIGHT WITH DECREASING FORWARD SPEED BY DAY 5.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...
FLOODING...AND POTENTIAL MUD SLIDES OVER HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER IN THE WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/0900Z 13.5N 75.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 13.8N 76.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 14.4N 76.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 15.3N 76.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 16.8N 75.3W 65 KT
72HR VT 06/0600Z 20.0N 73.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 07/0600Z 21.5N 71.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 08/0600Z 22.0N 69.5W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 AM EDT WED NOV 03 2010
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TOMAS A COUPLE
OF HOURS AGO FOUND AN ILL-DEFINED AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH NO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AT EITHER THE 925 MB FLIGHT LEVEL OR THE
SURFACE. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...TOMAS IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. THE PERIPHERAL CLOUD PATTERN
CONTINUES TO SHOW ORGANIZATION WITH FRAGMENTED OUTER BANDS...BUT
THERE IS LITTLE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER.
THE WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS DIFFICULT TO EXPLAIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSES FROM THE UW/CIMSS DO NOT SUGGEST MUCH
OF AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR INTO THE CIRCULATION. THE CIRRUS
MOTIONS FROM SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW
PATTERN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS WOULD
NORMALLY BE CONSISTENT WITH LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR. AMSU
AREA-AVERAGED WIND SHEAR DERIVED BY CSU/CIRA...HOWEVER...INDICATE A
RECENT INCREASE IN MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR OVER TOMAS. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE TEMPORARY AS GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT DECREASING SHEAR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO
CALL FOR TOMAS TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING
LAND. GIVEN THE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE THUS
FAR...THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE NOAA G-IV
JET IS CURRENTLY CONDUCTING A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND
TOMAS WHICH SHOULD GIVE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE DYNAMIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
THE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT WINDS SURROUNDING
THE LOCATION OF THE MINIMUM PRESSURE...SO THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER POSITION AND INITIAL MOTION. OUR BEST
GUESS AT THE LATTER IS 285/4. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN RESPONSE TO
THE STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH.
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH
LIFTING OUT AND LEAVING TOMAS BEHIND OVER THE SUBTROPICS FOR A FEW
DAYS. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A TURN TO
THE RIGHT WITH DECREASING FORWARD SPEED BY DAY 5.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...
FLOODING...AND POTENTIAL MUD SLIDES OVER HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER IN THE WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/0900Z 13.5N 75.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 13.8N 76.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 14.4N 76.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 15.3N 76.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 16.8N 75.3W 65 KT
72HR VT 06/0600Z 20.0N 73.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 07/0600Z 21.5N 71.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 08/0600Z 22.0N 69.5W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 142744
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories
000
WTNT31 KNHC 031146
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
800 AM EDT WED NOV 03 2010
...DISORGANIZED TOMAS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 75.8W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SW OF PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
INTERESTS IN HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS. TOMAS COULD POSE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THOSE AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...NORTH...AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT31 KNHC 031146
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
800 AM EDT WED NOV 03 2010
...DISORGANIZED TOMAS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 75.8W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SW OF PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
INTERESTS IN HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS. TOMAS COULD POSE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THOSE AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...NORTH...AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 142744
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories
WTNT31 KNHC 031448
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM EDT WED NOV 03 2010
...TOMAS REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 75.9W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
JAMAICA TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
INTERESTS IN HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD
ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...NORTH...AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF TOMAS COULD APPROACH HAITI ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND TOMAS COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ON THURSDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT41 KNHC 031449
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM EDT WED NOV 03 2010
TOMAS IS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND DATA FROM THE NOAA
G-IV JET INDICATE THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME PART OF AN ELONGATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT INCLUDES AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER JUST
NORTH OF PANAMA. AS A RESULT...THE CIRCULATION OF TOMAS HAS BEEN
LOSING DEFINITION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE WHETHER
TOMAS STILL HAS ENOUGH CIRCULATION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER...AND BASED ON THIS AND THE AIRCRAFT DATA
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 295/5. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK OR FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THE FIRST 72 -96 HR
OF THE FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES SHOULD CAUSE TOMAS TO RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HR...WITH A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION CONTINUING
THROUGH 72-96 HR. AFTER THAT TIME...THE GUIDANCE BECOMES
DIVERGENT. THE GFDL STALLS THE CYCLONE JUST WEST OF HAITI. THE
UKMET AND NOGAPS FORECAST TOMAS TO SHEAR OFF WITH THE REMNANT
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD. FINALLY...THE GFS AND
ECMWF CALL FOR A CONTINUED EASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION.
THE NEW TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FROM
96-120 HR AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES. OVERALL...THE
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. FIRST...THE CYCLONE NEEDS TO
SURVIVE ITS CURRENT STATE OF DISORGANIZATION. IF THAT OCCURS...
LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR OR SO IF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CAN CONSOLIDATE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
ASSUMES BOTH OF THESE THINGS WILL HAPPEN...AND THUS CALLS FOR SLOW
STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME. WHILE THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS
STILL CALL FOR TOMAS TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH...THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO DUE TO CURRENT
TRENDS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF LAND INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO BUT
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL ICON.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...
FLOODING... AND POTENTIAL MUD SLIDES OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC LATER IN THE WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/1500Z 14.1N 75.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 14.5N 76.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 15.5N 76.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 16.8N 75.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 18.1N 74.7W 55 KT
72HR VT 06/1200Z 21.0N 72.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 07/1200Z 23.0N 71.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 08/1200Z 23.5N 69.0W 55 KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM EDT WED NOV 03 2010
...TOMAS REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 75.9W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
JAMAICA TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
INTERESTS IN HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD
ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...NORTH...AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF TOMAS COULD APPROACH HAITI ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND TOMAS COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ON THURSDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT41 KNHC 031449
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM EDT WED NOV 03 2010
TOMAS IS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND DATA FROM THE NOAA
G-IV JET INDICATE THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME PART OF AN ELONGATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT INCLUDES AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER JUST
NORTH OF PANAMA. AS A RESULT...THE CIRCULATION OF TOMAS HAS BEEN
LOSING DEFINITION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE WHETHER
TOMAS STILL HAS ENOUGH CIRCULATION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER...AND BASED ON THIS AND THE AIRCRAFT DATA
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 295/5. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK OR FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THE FIRST 72 -96 HR
OF THE FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES SHOULD CAUSE TOMAS TO RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HR...WITH A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION CONTINUING
THROUGH 72-96 HR. AFTER THAT TIME...THE GUIDANCE BECOMES
DIVERGENT. THE GFDL STALLS THE CYCLONE JUST WEST OF HAITI. THE
UKMET AND NOGAPS FORECAST TOMAS TO SHEAR OFF WITH THE REMNANT
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD. FINALLY...THE GFS AND
ECMWF CALL FOR A CONTINUED EASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION.
THE NEW TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FROM
96-120 HR AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES. OVERALL...THE
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. FIRST...THE CYCLONE NEEDS TO
SURVIVE ITS CURRENT STATE OF DISORGANIZATION. IF THAT OCCURS...
LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR OR SO IF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CAN CONSOLIDATE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
ASSUMES BOTH OF THESE THINGS WILL HAPPEN...AND THUS CALLS FOR SLOW
STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME. WHILE THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS
STILL CALL FOR TOMAS TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH...THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO DUE TO CURRENT
TRENDS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF LAND INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO BUT
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL ICON.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...
FLOODING... AND POTENTIAL MUD SLIDES OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC LATER IN THE WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/1500Z 14.1N 75.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 14.5N 76.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 15.5N 76.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 16.8N 75.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 18.1N 74.7W 55 KT
72HR VT 06/1200Z 21.0N 72.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 07/1200Z 23.0N 71.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 08/1200Z 23.5N 69.0W 55 KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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