ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109489
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#41 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 03, 2010 12:55 pm

000
WTNT31 KNHC 031753
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
200 PM EDT WED NOV 03 2010

...CENTER OF TOMAS RE-FORMING FARTHER NORTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 75.0W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

INTERESTS IN HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD
ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PRELIMINARY DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TOMAS IS
RE-FORMING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. AT
200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...
11 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
TOMAS COULD APPROACH HAITI ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND TOMAS COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BY THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109489
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#42 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 03, 2010 3:40 pm

000
WTNT31 KNHC 032037
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM EDT WED NOV 03 2010

...TOMAS RE-INTENSIFIES INTO A TROPICAL STORM...NEW WARNINGS AND
WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 74.8W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
HAITI.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND HOLGUIN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM
BARAHONA WESTWARD.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...
LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS
WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND HOLGUIN
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND EASTERN CUBA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR
THURSDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH HAITI ON FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND TOMAS COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH AS THE CENTER NEARS HAITI.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS
1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY LATE THURSDAY...
MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY
FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109489
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#43 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 03, 2010 4:08 pm

000
WTNT41 KNHC 032057
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM EDT WED NOV 03 2010

AFTER STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY THIS MORNING...TOMAS HAS
RE-ORGANIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS FOUND A BETTER-DEFINED CIRCULATION THAN WAS
PRESENT DURING THE PREVIOUS AIRCRAFT MISSION...ALTHOUGH THE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND CENTER IS STILL RATHER LARGE. THE PLANE FOUND
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 48 KT BELOW 1500 FT AND ESTIMATED SURFACE
WINDS NEAR 40 KT FROM THE SFMR ABOUT 45 N MI EAST OF THE MEAN
CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1003 MB. BASED ON THESE
DATA...TOMAS IS UPGRADED TO A 40-KT TROPICAL STORM.

WITH THE RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY POSITION...THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW AN UNCERTAIN 335/5.
A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE
TOMAS TO RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HR...WITH
A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH 72-96 HR.
THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A FASTER MOTION IN THE FIRST 72-96 HR. INDEED THE NOGAPS...WHICH
PREVIOUSLY CALLED FOR TOMAS TO SHEAR APART AND TURN SOUTHWEST...
NOW CALLS FOR THE STORM TO MOVE STEADILY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BASED ON THIS...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 96 HR. AFTER THAT TIME...THE
GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY DIVERGENT. THE UKMET CONTINUES TO FORECAST
TOMAS TO SHEAR APART WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD...WHILE THE CANADIAN FORECAST TOMAS OR ITS
EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS TO REACH NEWFOUNDLAND BY 120 HR. THE OTHER
MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN THESE RATHER DRASTIC EXTREMES. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE SCENARIO OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY OF A
SLOW EASTWARD MOTION AFTER 96 HR AT A HIGHER LATITUDE THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

NOW THAT TOMAS IS CONSOLIDATING...LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FAVOR INTENSIFICATION. THE SHIPS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF 30 KT OF
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HR...ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT
ORGANIZATION OF TOMAS ARGUES AGAINST THAT MUCH INTENSIFICATION.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND
LGEM MODELS FOR THE FIRST 36-48 HR...CALLING FOR TOMAS TO
STRENGTHEN UNTIL LAND INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA BEGINS. IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT TOMAS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
REACHING LAND AS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. AFTER
PASSING HISPANIOLA...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE TOMAS TO WEAKEN. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS
AGAIN CLOSE TO BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
MODEL ICON.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...
FLOODING...AND POTENTIAL MUD SLIDES OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 14.9N 74.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 15.8N 75.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 16.9N 75.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 18.4N 74.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 20.2N 73.2W 60 KT
72HR VT 06/1800Z 23.5N 71.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 07/1800Z 26.0N 69.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 08/1800Z 26.0N 67.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109489
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#44 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 03, 2010 6:52 pm

WTNT31 KNHC 032350
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
800 PM EDT WED NOV 03 2010

...TOMAS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 74.9W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND HOLGUIN
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND EASTERN CUBA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR
THURSDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.9 WEST. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH HAITI ON FRIDAY..AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND TOMAS COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH AS THE
CENTER NEARS HAITI.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS
1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY LATE THURSDAY...
MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY
FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109489
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#45 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 03, 2010 9:46 pm

000
WTNT31 KNHC 040243
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 PM EDT WED NOV 03 2010

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 75.2W
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF HAITI.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING MAYAGUANA AND THE INAGUAS...AS WELL
AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND HOLGUIN

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND EASTERN CUBA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS ON THURSDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH HAITI ON FRIDAY...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY LATE THURSDAY...
MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY
FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109489
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#46 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 03, 2010 9:51 pm

000
WTNT41 KNHC 040249
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 PM EDT WED NOV 03 2010

DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSIONS
INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF TOMAS IS STILL NOT QUITE
ALIGNED WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. THEY HAVE MOVED CLOSER TOGETHER
DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER...AND A 2219 UTC SSMI/S MICROWAVE PASS
SHOWS CONSIDERABLY MORE BANDING THAN THIS SYSTEM HAS HAD DURING THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN 40 KT...WHICH IS
NEAR THE FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR MAXIMA REPORTED BY NOAA.

THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING OF TOMAS
WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND WARM WATERS. IN FACT...ALL OF
THE RELIABLE MODELS THAT DO NOT MOVE TOMAS OVER A SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF HAITI MAKE THE CYCLONE A HURRICANE WITHIN 36-48 HOURS.
THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX ALSO SHOWS A 62 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A 30-KT INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THOUGH THIS
MODEL WAS TOO HIGH YESTERDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS BURNED US BEFORE BY
DOING THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT GIVEN THE IMPROVED
MICROWAVE PRESENTATION...I AM INCLINED TO RAISE THE FORECAST A
LITTLE BIT TO HURRICANE STATUS. THE NEW FORECAST IS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW A COMPOSITE OF THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND LGEM MODELS.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH A COLD FRONT AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INCREASES.

THE CURRENT MOTION REMAINS 330/5...THOUGH THIS IS MORE UNCERTAIN
THAN NORMAL WITH THE NHC INITIAL POSITION ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE
OF THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A WEAK RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
TOMAS IS STEERING THE STORM FOR NOW...BUT A RATHER STRONG DEEP
LAYER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH TOMORROW...AND THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
BY EARLY FRIDAY. TOMAS SHOULD BE ACCELERATING AS IT PASSES NEAR
HAITI AS THE MID-LATITUDE LOW APPROACHES. ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST WITH THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS STILL
FOCUSED ON A TRACK TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. AT DAYS 4 AND
5...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM THE MODELS THAT THE GULF OF
MEXICO LOW WILL LEAVE TOMAS BEHIND TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT AT THAT TIME.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...
FLOODING...AND LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES OVER HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0300Z 15.4N 75.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 16.1N 75.4W 45 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 17.4N 75.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 19.1N 74.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 21.0N 72.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 07/0000Z 24.0N 70.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 08/0000Z 25.0N 68.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 09/0000Z 25.0N 66.5W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Canerecon
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 99
Joined: Wed Nov 03, 2010 7:55 pm
Location: Jamaica

#47 Postby Canerecon » Thu Nov 04, 2010 1:12 am

000
WTNT31 KNHC 040603
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
200 AM EDT THU NOV 04 2010

...TOMAS HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 75.8W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SW OF PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND HOLGUIN

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND EASTERN CUBA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS ON THURSDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH HAITI ON FRIDAY...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY LATE THURSDAY...
MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
BY EARLY FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
0 likes   
"Since neither I nor the models are good enough to precisely know if Ernesto will have an intensity of 64 knots at landfall, which is the border between hurricane and tropical storm intensity and 4 knots above the forecast, a hurricane watch has been issued for a portion of the coast." - Lixion Avila

User avatar
Canerecon
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 99
Joined: Wed Nov 03, 2010 7:55 pm
Location: Jamaica

Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#48 Postby Canerecon » Thu Nov 04, 2010 6:55 am

000
WTNT31 KNHC 041148
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
800 AM EDT THU NOV 04 2010

...HURRICANE HUNTER DATA SHOWS TOMAS CHANGING LITTLE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 76.0W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND HOLGUIN

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER WILL PASS NEAR HAITI OR EXTREME EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA LATER TODAY..
MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
0 likes   
"Since neither I nor the models are good enough to precisely know if Ernesto will have an intensity of 64 knots at landfall, which is the border between hurricane and tropical storm intensity and 4 knots above the forecast, a hurricane watch has been issued for a portion of the coast." - Lixion Avila

User avatar
srainhoutx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6720
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6
Contact:

Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#49 Postby srainhoutx » Thu Nov 04, 2010 10:07 am

000
WTNT31 KNHC 041448
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM EDT THU NOV 04 2010

...CENTER OF TOMAS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMAICA AND
HAITI...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED FOR CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 76.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER WILL PASS NEAR JAMAICA OR HAITI TONIGHT...NEAR OR OVER
EXTREME EASTERN CUBA FRIDAY AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND
TOMAS COULD BE NEAR OR AT HURRICANE STRENGTH AS THE CENTER PASSES
EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
DATA IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA LATER TODAY..
MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
0 likes   
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
KHOU Regional Weather Forum
http://forums.khou.com/index.php

Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46080
Age: 30
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

#50 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 04, 2010 10:18 am

TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM EDT THU NOV 04 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TOMAS IS
LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. THE
NOAA PLANE HAS MEASURED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 44 KT...AND A
RECENT DROPSONDE SUGGESTS SURFACE WINDS AROUND 40 KT AND A CENTRAL
PRESSURE BELOW 997 MB. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 40 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY GOOD OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 350/7. A LARGE
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD CAUSE TOMAS TO
MOVE NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HR OR SO...WITH THE
CENTER PASSING NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA...HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THIS PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. AFTER 48 HR...THE GUIDANCE IS
DIVERGENT AND INCONSISTENT. THE ECMWF SHOWS TOMAS MOVING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH...AND THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUN. THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF NOW
CALL FOR TOMAS TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AND BE ABSORBED INTO THE
TROUGH...WHICH IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM THE 6 HOUR OLD RUNS. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS...WHICH 6 HR AGO WAS CALLING FOR A
CONTINUED NORTHWARD MOTION...NOW CALLS FOR AN EASTWARD TURN SIMILAR
TO THE ECMWF. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED
NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE 72-120 HR PORTION OF THE
TRACK WILL ALSO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD...BUT IS WELL SOUTH OF THE
CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS LOW CONFIDENCE.

TOMAS IS EXPERIENCING 10-15 KT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN IN A LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING
AS LONG AS THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER. THIS PART OF THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS MODEL. AFTER 48 HR...THE
INTENSITY AND EVENTUAL FATE OF TOMAS ARE STRONGLY TIED TO ITS
TRACK. A NORTHWARD TRACK WOULD RESULT IN A RAPID EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AND ABSORPTION BY THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. AN EASTWARD
TRACK WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM NEAR OR JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN
AN AREA OF STRONG WIND SHEAR. EITHER WAY...TOMAS SHOULD WEAKEN
DURING THIS TIME AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
THE 120 HR FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...AND
THIS COULD OCCUR EARLIER IF THE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER NORTH THAN
FORECAST.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HEAVY RAINFALL...
WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES
OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 16.3N 76.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 17.5N 75.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 19.5N 74.7W 60 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 21.8N 73.1W 65 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 24.3N 71.3W 55 KT
72HR VT 07/1200Z 28.0N 69.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 08/1200Z 29.5N 66.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 09/1200Z 29.5N 63.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109489
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#51 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 04, 2010 12:51 pm

KNHC 041746
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
200 PM EDT THU NOV 04 2010

...RAINBANDS OF TOMAS MOVING ACROSS JAMAICA AND SOUTHWESTERN
HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 76.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER WILL PASS NEAR JAMAICA OR HAITI TONIGHT...NEAR OR OVER
EXTREME EASTERN CUBA FRIDAY AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...AND TOMAS COULD BE NEAR OR AT HURRICANE STRENGTH AS THE
CENTER PASSES EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA LATER TODAY...
MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109489
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#52 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 04, 2010 3:56 pm

WTNT31 KNHC 042055
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM EDT THU NOV 04 2010

...TOMAS STILL A TROPICAL STORM WITH RAINBANDS AFFECTING
HAITI...JAMAICA...AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 76.0W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 36
HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER WILL PASS NEAR JAMAICA OR HAITI TONIGHT...NEAR OR OVER
EXTREME EASTERN CUBA FRIDAY AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND TOMAS COULD BE NEAR OR AT HURRICANE STRENGTH AS THE
CENTER PASSES HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTERS IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE COAST OF HAITI...AND 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF CUBA...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THIS EVENING...
MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN

WTNT41 KNHC 042056
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM EDT THU NOV 04 2010

THIS AFTERNOON...TOMAS CONTINUES AS A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM WITH
MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED EAST OF A LOW-LEVEL SWIRL.
DESPITE APPEARANCES THAT THE SWIRL IS THE CIRCULATION CENTER...THE
AIR FORCE C-130 OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN
ROTATING AROUND A BROADER MEAN CENTER. THE RECONNAISSANCE ALSO
OBSERVED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 995 MB AND EQUIVALENT WINDS AT THE
SURFACE OF ABOUT 45 KT...THOUGH THIS WIND VALUE COULD BE SLIGHTLY
GENEROUS.

THE MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS 350 DEGREES AT 4 KT AS IT IS PRIMARILY
BEING STEERED TO THE NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD INDUCE RECURVATURE OF TOMAS TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATION OF ITS FORWARD SPEED DURING THE 36
HR OR SO. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS
POINT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 36 HR IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AT 48 HR AND
BEYOND...HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF TOMAS IS QUITE UNCERTAIN.
ONE GROUP OF MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN...NOGAPS...HWRF...AND GFDL...CONTINUE TO SPEED THE CYCLONE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND HAVE IT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A STRONG COLD FRONT. ANOTHER SCENARIO...SHARED BY THE
ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS...IS THAT THE CYCLONE WOULD BECOME SHEARED
AND SHALLOW...NOT PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH AND FRONT...AND MEANDER
EASTWARD FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THE CONSENSUS TECHNIQUES...BY
DESIGN...SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WHICH IS NOT VERY LIKELY TO BE
CORRECT. IN A SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE COMPROMISE...THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS
SOMEWHAT EQUATORWARD OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

TOMAS HAS ABOUT A DAY OR TWO TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MODERATE SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...A MOIST ENVIRONMENT...VERY WARM
WATERS...AND A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. BEYOND TWO DAYS...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD EXPERIENCE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY
COOLER WATERS. THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS QUITE CLOSE TO A
CONSENSUS OF DECAY-SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS AND NEARLY THE
SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE
TRACK DOES TAKE THE CYCLONE DIRECTLY OVER EITHER EASTERN CUBA OR
HISPANIOLA FOR MORE THAN A FEW HOURS...THE CYCLONE WOULD BE WEAKER
THAN INDICATED HERE.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HEAVY RAINFALL...
WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES
OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/2100Z 16.6N 76.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 17.8N 75.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 20.1N 74.3W 60 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 22.6N 72.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 06/1800Z 24.8N 71.1W 55 KT
72HR VT 07/1800Z 27.5N 69.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 08/1800Z 28.5N 66.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 09/1800Z 29.0N 64.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN



0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109489
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#53 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 04, 2010 6:34 pm

000
WTNT31 KNHC 042331
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
800 PM EDT THU NOV 04 2010

...TOMAS SHOWING SIGNS OF GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EASTERN JAMAICA AND HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 75.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 020 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 36
HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF TOMAS
WILL PASS NEAR EASTERN JAMAICA OR WESTERN HAITI TONIGHT...NEAR OR
OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA FRIDAY AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY.

RECENT REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60
MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND TOMAS COULD BE A HURRICANE AS THE
CENTER PASSES HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...
195 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM AIR
FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE COAST OF HAITI...AND 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF CUBA...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA AND IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA IN HAITI THIS EVENING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BRENNAN


0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109489
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#54 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 04, 2010 9:44 pm

642
WTNT31 KNHC 050243
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 PM EDT THU NOV 04 2010

...TOMAS STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
EASTERN JAMAICA AND WESTERN HAITI...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
NOW OCCURRING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 75.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 36
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS
WILL PASS NEAR EASTERN JAMAICA OR WESTERN HAITI TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY...NEAR OR OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND
NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT.

RECENT REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND TOMAS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY AS
THE CENTER PASSES HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...AND MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...
220 KM...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE COAST OF HAITI...AND 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF CUBA...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA AND IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN HAITI.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA ON FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109489
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#55 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 04, 2010 9:53 pm

WTNT41 KNHC 050244
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 PM EDT THU NOV 04 2010

THERE HAS BEEN A SHARP INCREASE IN THE INNER-CORE WIND STRUCTURE AND
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF TOMAS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. ALTHOUGH
BOTH AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THERE
IS ABOUT 12 NMI NORTHEASTWARD TILT TO THE VORTEX...THIS HAS NOT
PREVENTED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM FALLING AND THE WINDS FROM
INCREASING. THE MAXIMUM 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE
AIR FORCE WAS 61 KT...AND 58 KT WAS REPORTED AT 700 MB BY THE NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTERS. MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS HAVE BEEN AROUND 56-58 KT.
THE LATEST NOAA RECON PRESSURE WAS DOWN TO 989 MB...AND THAT WAS
WITH 13 KT OF WIND AT THE SURFACE. A COMBINATION OF THESE DATA
EASILY SUPPORT INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 55 KT...WHICH COULD BE A
LITTLE CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THAT A WARM SPOT HAS APPEARED
INTERMITTENTLY WITHIN A RING OF VERY COLD TOPS OF -80C TO -85C NEAR
THE CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 030/08. TOMAS HAS NOW MOVED NORTH
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT LIES EAST-WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. TOMAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND GRADUALLY ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT
COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S....FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRACK
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO
THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THE MODEL TRACKS HAVE EVEN SHIFTED MORE TO
THE EAST ON THE LATEST FORECAST CYCLE. HOWEVER...AFTER THAT TIME...
HOWLING WESTERLY WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KT IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR
APART TOMAS AND LEAVE BEHIND A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
SHOULD BE STEERED SLOWLY EASTWARD BY WEAKER LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE GFDL
AND HWRF MODELS TAKE TOMAS OR ITS REMNANTS RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AND
MERGE IT WITH A DEEP EXTRATROPICAL LOW NEAR THE NORTHEAST U.S.
COAST AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...THE GFS...ECMWF...
UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS SHOW TOMAS SHEARING APART AND REMAINING
JUST NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE LATTER SCENARIO IS
PREFERRED GIVEN THE EXTREMELY HOSTILE SHEAR CONDITIONS THAT ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE BY 72 HOURS AND BEYOND. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE EASTERLY
INITIAL POSITION.

TOMAS HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO TO STRENGTHEN OVER 29C SSTS AND IN A
RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...BY 36 HOURS...MID-LEVEL
HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE BELOW 40 PERCENT...WHICH COULD
ACT TO ERODE THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BY 48
HOURS THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SHARPLY AND TOMAS
SHOULD BEGIN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS...LGEM...
AND GFDL MODELS.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING
MUD SLIDES OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0300Z 17.3N 75.5W 55 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 18.8N 74.6W 65 KT
24HR VT 06/0000Z 21.0N 73.1W 70 KT
36HR VT 06/1200Z 23.4N 71.5W 70 KT
48HR VT 07/0000Z 25.1N 70.2W 55 KT
72HR VT 08/0000Z 27.2N 67.9W 40 KT
96HR VT 09/0000Z 28.3N 65.8W 30 KT...POST-TROPICAL
120HR VT 10/0000Z 28.5N 64.0W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Chris_in_Tampa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4409
Age: 34
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:06 pm
Location: Tampa, Florida, USA
Contact:

#56 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Fri Nov 05, 2010 3:44 am

TROPICAL STORM TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
200 AM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010

...TOMAS APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE
APPROACHING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 75.3W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM WSW OF PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.3 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS
WILL PASS NEAR WESTERN HAITI THIS MORNING...NEAR OR OVER EXTREME
EASTERN CUBA TODAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND TOMAS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...
220 KM...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE COAST OF HAITI...AND 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF CUBA...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA AND IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN HAITI.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING TODAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
0 likes   

Chris_in_Tampa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4409
Age: 34
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:06 pm
Location: Tampa, Florida, USA
Contact:

#57 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Fri Nov 05, 2010 3:44 am

HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 AM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THAT TOMAS HAS BECOME A
HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 74.9W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM W OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.9 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS WILL PASS
NEAR WESTERN HAITI THIS MORNING...NEAR OR OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA
TODAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND BEGINNING ON
SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
REPORTS IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE COAST OF HAITI...AND 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF CUBA...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA AND IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN HAITI.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING TODAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
0 likes   

Chris_in_Tampa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4409
Age: 34
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:06 pm
Location: Tampa, Florida, USA
Contact:

#58 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Fri Nov 05, 2010 3:45 am

HURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 AM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010

TOMAS HAS REGAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTERS FOUND A PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 88 KT AND MAXIMUM
SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS OF 75 KT. THE LATTER OBSERVATION
APPEARED TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A SPIKE IN THE RECORD...AND USING A
BLEND OF THE SURFACE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA GIVES 70 KT FOR THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIRCRAFT AND A
TRMM MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE IS TILTED
NORTHWARD AS A RESULT OF SOUTHERLY OR SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS APPROACHING -90C.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/08. TOMAS IS LOCATED ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN UNUSUALLY DEEP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
GRADUALLY BECOME EMBEDDED IN AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND MOVE ON A
GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD COURSE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. AFTER 48 HOURS...TOMAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND TURN
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD IN A WEAKER LOW-LEVEL
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW AS THE INCREASING SHEAR REDUCES TOMAS TO A
SHALLOWER FEATURE. THIS IS THE GENERAL SCENARIO DEPICTED BY THE
GFS AND U.K. MET. OFFICE GLOBAL MODELS. AN ALTERNATIVE EVOLUTION
IS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE ECMWF. THE
LATTER MODEL SHOWS A STRONGER CYCLONE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...PRESUMABLY DUE TO BAROCLINIC FORCING...THAT MOVES MORE
QUICKLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

TOMAS STILL HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO TO STRENGTHEN IN AN ENVIRONMENT
OF RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR...HIGH MOISTURE...AND OVER WARM WATERS.
AFTER THAT...A RAPID INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH...NOT TO MENTION DRIER AND COOLER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAME FEATURE IMPINGING ON THE CIRCULATION...
SHOULD BRING ABOUT A PRONOUNCED WEAKENING PHASE. THE NEW NHC
FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE SHIPS/LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE BUT ABOUT
THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...INDICATING
INTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS AND WEAKENING
TO A REMNANT LOW IN 96 HOURS. WEAKENING AFTER 48 HOURS COULD BE
MORE RAPID THAN INDICATED...CONSIDERING THAT THE SHEAR COULD BE
HIGHER THAN 60 KT AFTER 60 HOURS.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND LIFE-
THREATENING MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0900Z 18.1N 74.9W 70 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 19.8N 73.9W 75 KT
24HR VT 06/0600Z 22.1N 72.4W 75 KT
36HR VT 06/1800Z 24.4N 70.9W 65 KT
48HR VT 07/0600Z 25.8N 69.6W 50 KT
72HR VT 08/0600Z 27.5N 67.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 09/0600Z 28.5N 65.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 10/0600Z 28.5N 63.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109489
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : TOMAS - Advisories

#59 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 05, 2010 6:50 am

WTNT31 KNHC 051149
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
800 AM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010

...TOMAS A LITTLE STRONGER...CENTER NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 74.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS WILL
PASS NEAR WESTERN HAITI THIS MORNING...NEAR OR OVER EXTREME EASTERN
CUBA TODAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...
135 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND
BEGINNING ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
REPORTS IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE COAST OF HAITI...AND 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF CUBA...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI...AND ARE EXPECTED IN OTHER
PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS OTHER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA TODAY...AND SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46080
Age: 30
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

#60 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Nov 05, 2010 9:53 am

HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010

...CENTER OF TOMAS NOW PASSING BETWEEN HAITI AND SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 74.4W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM WNW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR JAMAICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF TOMAS WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER NORTHWESTERN HAITI AND EXTREME
EASTERN CUBA THIS AFTERNOON..AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND BEGINNING ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI...AND ARE EXPECTED IN OTHER
PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS OTHER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA TODAY...AND SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY
OR TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
0 likes   


Return to “2010”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests