BOB: Cyclonic Storm JAL

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10231
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

BOB: Cyclonic Storm JAL

#1 Postby Chacor » Sat Oct 30, 2010 4:41 am

Image
Image

5.0N 107.6E - convection extends even across the equator with this large system. Heavy rain and strong winds here the past two days.
Last edited by Chacor on Sun Nov 07, 2010 6:14 am, edited 6 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10231
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#2 Postby Chacor » Sat Oct 30, 2010 10:40 am

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.1N 108.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. A
300238Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH MODERATE NORTH-TO-NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FLANKING THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. WINDS AT THE CORE ARE LIGHTER
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CAN ALSO BE SPOTTED IN
MULTISPECTRAL ANIMATION, NORTH OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION DEPICTED
IN ASCAT. OVERALL THE CONVECTION IS WEAK AND SHOWS NO IMMINENT SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION. THE DISTURBANCE LIES WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTER OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN IS SUPPRESSING EXPANSION OF THE
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND HAS RESTRICTED OUTFLOW TO THE WEST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
0 likes   

Reesie
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 32
Joined: Mon May 31, 2010 9:21 pm
Location: UK
Contact:

Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#3 Postby Reesie » Mon Nov 01, 2010 6:38 pm

Its interesting to see that the Thai and Malaysian met departments upped this to a tropical depression before landfall, so unofficially we have a basin crosser. IMD have also started to classify 99W as Depression BOB 05 according to the all india daily weather reports
0 likes   

RobWESTPACWX
WestPACMet
WestPACMet
Posts: 1615
Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
Location: Tokyo, Japan
Contact:

#4 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Mon Nov 01, 2010 10:13 pm

JT has officially put this one over in the I/O now.
0 likes   
Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM

RobWESTPACWX
WestPACMet
WestPACMet
Posts: 1615
Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
Location: Tokyo, Japan
Contact:

#5 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Mon Nov 01, 2010 10:14 pm

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.9N 100.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 235 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION,
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), PERSISTING OVER THE MAYLAY PENINSULA. OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM HAT YAI INTERNATIONAL
(VTSS) HAVE INDICATED VARIABLE WINDS (10-15 KNOTS) OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST WITH A 24 HOUR PRESSURE DECREASE OF 6 MB'S (OBSERVATION
OF 1003 MB AT 01/16Z). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS).
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR. THIS SYSTEM WAS
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED ON THE ABPW. SEE REF A (ABPW10 PGTW 010600)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
0 likes   
Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM

RobWESTPACWX
WestPACMet
WestPACMet
Posts: 1615
Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
Location: Tokyo, Japan
Contact:

Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#6 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Mon Nov 01, 2010 11:26 pm

Some of my thoughts on this invest! As usual gave you guys at storm2k here a shout out. Lots of good information on this site.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zVtnix47AEY[/youtube]
0 likes   
Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12993
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: BOB (NIO): INVEST 99W FAIR

#7 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 02, 2010 2:32 am

ecmwf strengthens this to a possible major cyclone then weakening before landfall in india
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

RobWESTPACWX
WestPACMet
WestPACMet
Posts: 1615
Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
Location: Tokyo, Japan
Contact:

#8 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Tue Nov 02, 2010 6:58 am

NGPS has it pretty strong with a landfall near Sri Lanka as well.
0 likes   
Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM

RobWESTPACWX
WestPACMet
WestPACMet
Posts: 1615
Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
Location: Tokyo, Japan
Contact:

Re: BOB (NIO): INVEST 99W FAIR

#9 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Tue Nov 02, 2010 6:59 am

Thailand stamping the TD on it as it moved over Phuket

Image

Phuket Radar

Image
0 likes   
Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM

RobWESTPACWX
WestPACMet
WestPACMet
Posts: 1615
Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
Location: Tokyo, Japan
Contact:

Re: BOB (NIO): INVEST 99W FAIR

#10 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Tue Nov 02, 2010 9:33 pm

Really starting to think this one has potential to develop. My thoughts for today on it.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LaiMIDRhnFI[/youtube]
0 likes   
Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM

User avatar
Crostorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2058
Age: 43
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
Location: Croatia-Europe
Contact:

#11 Postby Crostorm » Wed Nov 03, 2010 10:40 am

TPIO11 PGTW 031510

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (W OF MALAYSIA)

B. 03/1430Z

C. 8.0N

D. 93.2E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/1054Z 8.0N 92.8E SSMI


GATES
0 likes   

User avatar
Crostorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2058
Age: 43
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
Location: Croatia-Europe
Contact:

Re: BOB (NIO): INVEST 99W FAIR

#12 Postby Crostorm » Wed Nov 03, 2010 10:42 am

Image
0 likes   

ugaap
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 72
Joined: Tue Apr 29, 2008 3:10 am
Location: India
Contact:

Re: BOB (NIO): INVEST 99W FAIR

#13 Postby ugaap » Wed Nov 03, 2010 12:16 pm

WTIO21 PGTW 031500
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.2N 94.0E TO 8.8N 87.1E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
031200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.0N
92.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 041500Z.
//
0 likes   

RobWESTPACWX
WestPACMet
WestPACMet
Posts: 1615
Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
Location: Tokyo, Japan
Contact:

Re: BOB (NIO): INVEST 99W TCFA

#14 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Wed Nov 03, 2010 7:13 pm

NGPS and GFS both developing this system very strong now.

NGPS BELOW

Image
0 likes   
Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM

RobWESTPACWX
WestPACMet
WestPACMet
Posts: 1615
Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
Location: Tokyo, Japan
Contact:

Re: BOB (NIO): INVEST 99W TCFA

#15 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Wed Nov 03, 2010 8:03 pm

My thoughts on the TCFA 99W today. Really think this could develop, what are your guys thoughts.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljVWspQpWA0[/youtube]


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes   
Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM

ugaap
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 72
Joined: Tue Apr 29, 2008 3:10 am
Location: India
Contact:

Re: BOB (NIO): INVEST 99W TCFA

#16 Postby ugaap » Thu Nov 04, 2010 3:28 am

From IMD New Delhi

BOB 05/2010/01 Dated: 04.10. 2010

Time of issue: 0830 hours IST



Sub: Depression over Southeast Bay of Bengal



Latest satellite imagery indicates that a depression has formed over southeast Bay of Bengal and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of 4th November 2010 near lat. 8.00N and long. 92.00E about about 1150 km east of Batticaloa, 1400 km east-southeast of Chennai and 1450 km southeast of Visakhapatanam.it would intensify gradually into a cyclonic storm and move west-northwestwards towards north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast during next 72 hours.

Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts from morning of 6th November 2010. The intensity would increase with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls ( ≥ 25 cm) over the above regions from morning of 7th November 2010. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls would occur over Andaman and Nicobar islands during next 12 hours and decrease thereafter.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would commence along and off North Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast from morning of 6th November 2010. Sea conditions will be rough to very rough along and off these coasts from the same time. Fishermen out at sea are advised to return to the coast.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would also occur along and off Andaman and Nicobar islands during next 12 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 12 hours. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off Andaman and Nicobar islands.
0 likes   

ugaap
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 72
Joined: Tue Apr 29, 2008 3:10 am
Location: India
Contact:

Re: BOB (NIO): INVEST 99W TCFA

#17 Postby ugaap » Thu Nov 04, 2010 3:30 am

From IMD New Delhi

BOB 05/2010/02 Dated: 04.11. 2010

Time of issue: 1130 hours IST



Sub: Depression over Southeast Bay of Bengal : Pre-cyclone Watch



The depression over southeast Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of 4th November 2010 near lat. 8.50N and long. 91.00E about about 1050 km east of Batticaloa (Sri Lanka), 1300 km east-southeast of Chennai and 1350 km southeast of Visakhapatanam. It would intensify gradually into a cyclonic storm and move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Chennai and Ongole by 7th November 2010 evening/night.



Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts from morning of 6th November 2010. The intensity would increase with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over the above regions from morning of 7th November 2010. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls would occur over Andaman and Nicobar islands during next 12 hours and decrease thereafter.



Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would commence along and off North Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast from morning of 6th November 2010. Sea conditions will be rough to very rough along and off these coasts from the same time. Fishermen out at sea are advised to return to the coast.



Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would also occur along and off Andaman and Nicobar islands during next 12 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 12 hours.. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off Andaman and Nicobar islands.
0 likes   

ugaap
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 72
Joined: Tue Apr 29, 2008 3:10 am
Location: India
Contact:

Re: BOB (NIO): Depression [INVEST 99W TCFA]

#18 Postby ugaap » Thu Nov 04, 2010 5:47 am

From IMD New Delhi

BOB 05/2010/03 Dated: 04.11. 2010

Time of issue: 1430 hours IST



Sub: Depression over Southeast Bay of Bengal : Pre-cyclone Watch



The depression over southeast Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of 4th November 2010 near lat. 8.50N and long. 90.50E about about 1000 km east of Batticaloa (Sri Lanka), 1250 km east-southeast of Chennai and 1300 km southeast of Visakhapatanam. It would intensify gradually into a cyclonic storm and move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Chennai and Ongole by 7th November 2010 evening/night.



Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts from morning of 6th November 2010. The intensity would increase with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over the above regions from morning of 7th November 2010. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls would occur over Andaman and Nicobar islands during next 12 hours and decrease thereafter.



Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph would commence along and off North Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast from morning of 6th November 2010. Sea conditions will be rough to very rough along and off these coasts from the same time. Fishermen out at sea are advised to return to the coast.



Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would also occur along and off Andaman and Nicobar islands during next 12 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 12 hours. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off Andaman and Nicobar islands.
0 likes   

RobWESTPACWX
WestPACMet
WestPACMet
Posts: 1615
Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
Location: Tokyo, Japan
Contact:

#19 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Thu Nov 04, 2010 6:26 am

About time India picked up on this! Good stuff... I'm thinking Landfall Just N or Sri Lanka or on the northern portion of the island the afternoon of the 6th, thoughts anyone?
0 likes   
Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 30839
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#20 Postby KWT » Thu Nov 04, 2010 6:42 am

ECM is quite slow on moving this making landfall on Sunday/Monday as probably a healthy storm, nothing like Giri but I do think we may get a decent storm out of this area.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products


Return to “2010”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests