ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

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cycloneye
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ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 09, 2010 5:59 am

For area north of Aruba.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al932010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201011090606
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2010, DB, O, 2010110906, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932010
AL, 93, 2010110806, , BEST, 0, 135N, 693W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010110812, , BEST, 0, 135N, 694W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010110818, , BEST, 0, 135N, 695W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010110900, , BEST, 0, 135N, 696W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010110906, , BEST, 0, 135N, 697W, 25, 1007, DB


Thread at Talking Tropics made by tolakram (Mark) about this area of interest.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109903&hilit=&p=2095683#p2095683
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#2 Postby Gustywind » Tue Nov 09, 2010 6:04 am

Oh damn, another Invest... :roll:
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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 09, 2010 6:14 am

Image

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST TUE NOV 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 80 MILES
NORTH OF ARUBA AND CURACAO IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...
AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#4 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 09, 2010 6:49 am

7 AM EST TWO.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST TUE NOV 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES
NORTH OF ARUBA AND CURACAO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...
AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART

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#5 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Nov 09, 2010 6:50 am

According to CIMSS wind shear products, there is an anticyclone sitting right over 93L. The main problem looks to be the dry air surrounding the disturbance and possible land interaction with Hispaniola in about two days.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#6 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 09, 2010 6:59 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST TUE NOV 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES
NORTH OF ARUBA AND CURACAO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...
AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART
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#7 Postby Cyclone1 » Tue Nov 09, 2010 7:13 am

Well.

I'm surprised. o_O
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Re:

#8 Postby chrisjslucia » Tue Nov 09, 2010 7:15 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:According to CIMSS wind shear products, there is an anticyclone sitting right over 93L. The main problem looks to be the dry air surrounding the disturbance and possible land interaction with Hispaniola in about two days.


Erm..."the main problem" ? SouthDade, do you mean the main problem to development? If so, I suspect many of us are hoping for as many problems as possible!! It does look very close to land and therefore limited time to develop, although it is reported as being stationary at present.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#9 Postby GCANE » Tue Nov 09, 2010 7:28 am

Core is warm but broad.

Anti-cyclone over the LLC.

FIM was hinting on this last week.


Image

Image



Image
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#10 Postby GCANE » Tue Nov 09, 2010 7:57 am

Image
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#11 Postby GCANE » Tue Nov 09, 2010 8:01 am

Image
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#12 Postby GCANE » Tue Nov 09, 2010 8:06 am

Enough instability to keep convection firing.

http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/op ... /15070.gif
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#13 Postby Florida1118 » Tue Nov 09, 2010 8:23 am

We can't even go 2 days without a Area marked....20 might come sooner than some of us thought...
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#14 Postby AdamFirst » Tue Nov 09, 2010 8:31 am

Doesn't have much room to operate, I assume?

It's still chilly up our way...and I imagine the waters are responding
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#15 Postby wxman57 » Tue Nov 09, 2010 9:59 am

Surface obs support a closed low center with a central pressure around 1008mb. Winds around the low are only 10-15 kts, though. Could be some 20-25 kts in the squalls north and east of the low center. Fair shot at developing, maybe as high as 50%. However, NHC gives themselves only a 10% chance of classifying it as a TD.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#16 Postby drezee » Tue Nov 09, 2010 10:46 am

wxman57 wrote:Surface obs support a closed low center with a central pressure around 1008mb. Winds around the low are only 10-15 kts, though. Could be some 20-25 kts in the squalls north and east of the low center. Fair shot at developing, maybe as high as 50%. However, NHC gives themselves only a 10% chance of classifying it as a TD.


How many bullets can Haiti dodge? I am about to start calling Hispanola, "Neo..."
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#17 Postby Florida1118 » Tue Nov 09, 2010 10:47 am

Perhaps the NHC will up the chances to 30+...If they didn't think it would develop, They wouldnt have made it a invest so quick. No mention of recon thus far though. And from Dr.masters-

"Invest 93L in the Caribbean not currently a threat

An area of disturbed weather (Invest 93L) has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. The heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 93L is rather limited, due in part to some dry air to the north. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and SSTs are very warm, 29°C, so we will have to watch this area for signs of development. None of the reliable global forecast models for predicting tropical cyclone formation (GFS, NOGAPS, ECMWF, and UKMET) are developing 93L into a tropical depression over the coming week, and NHC is giving 93L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday."
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#18 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 09, 2010 1:36 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST TUE NOV 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#19 Postby HurricaneBelle » Tue Nov 09, 2010 1:40 pm

wxman57 wrote:However, NHC gives themselves only a 10% chance of classifying it as a TD.


Now that's some quality (and well-founded) snark.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#20 Postby wxman57 » Tue Nov 09, 2010 1:41 pm

I'd say that Invest 93L is most definitely a "threat". It's a significant threat for very heavy rainfall in Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands over the next 24-48 hrs. It's looking like the heavier rain may miss Haiti to the east.
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