ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

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chrisjslucia
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#21 Postby chrisjslucia » Tue Nov 09, 2010 1:57 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'd say that Invest 93L is most definitely a "threat". It's a significant threat for very heavy rainfall in Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands over the next 24-48 hrs. It's looking like the heavier rain may miss Haiti to the east.


This was recently posted on StormCarib:

Eclipse? Not quite; can't be good news!
By crabbys at earthlink.net
Date: Tue, 9 Nov 2010 13:18:36 -0400 (GMT-04:00)
Take a look at the picture; this cannot be good news. Must be that rain all
those weather alerts warned us about. Got dark very, very fast, and the
animals took cover as soon as this started to move in.

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/curre ... kxIK1q.jpg
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#22 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 09, 2010 2:09 pm

Definitly,the big concern with this is the rain it will cause on top of what the tail of Tomas brought here in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands as the grounds are oversaturated.I am posting the flood advisories at the Caribbean - Central America Thread.

Image below doesn't update.

Image

Image below updates.

Image
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#23 Postby Sanibel » Tue Nov 09, 2010 3:29 pm

I swear I was going to come back this morning and say I have the feeling we are going to have another invest soon. Honest. However I thought it would be in the same place off Brazil as Tomas.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#24 Postby wxman57 » Tue Nov 09, 2010 4:14 pm

Development is looking less likely now, but heavy rain threat continues for PR/BVI/USVI.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#25 Postby Florida1118 » Tue Nov 09, 2010 8:12 pm

Wow Boards are dead again...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND ADJACENT WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

Not to confident in 93L
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#26 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Tue Nov 09, 2010 9:21 pm

This is to be expected, season is over after all. Time to start thinking about next season......


I still think we may see 1-2 storms before it's over though...just not this area. Proximity is too close to land.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#27 Postby Florida1118 » Tue Nov 09, 2010 9:35 pm

Ya my thinking of Development in this area has been cut. I'm going with 1 more tropical, and 1 STS. I don't think 93L will be Virginie anymore.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#28 Postby Florida1118 » Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:00 am

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED JUST SOUTH
OF PUERTO RICO ARE PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND ADJACENT WATERS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE BY THURSDAY. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 10
MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Bye Bye Development It seems.
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#29 Postby fci » Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:28 am

Further development or not; Puerto Rico and The Virgin Islands hardly need any rain at all after the soaking they just got.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#30 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 10, 2010 6:43 am

7 AM EST:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST WED NOV 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
ADJACENT WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT
AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#31 Postby Sanibel » Wed Nov 10, 2010 10:28 am

Reminds me of 2005 when every Low developed - only a late season outbreak without the conditions to support it.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#32 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 10, 2010 10:33 am

Image

Latest
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#33 Postby wxman57 » Wed Nov 10, 2010 11:04 am

No 12Z model update or best track update (ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest). I think this one is no longer an invest, they just haven't turned it off yet. Development chances near zero.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#34 Postby bvigal » Wed Nov 10, 2010 11:39 am

Weird, they are still updating Tomas.
(12z) ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Yes, VI and parts of PR had fl/flooding from this pineapple express. Ready for some hot sunshine and cool breezes but looks like it won't be for another couple days.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#35 Postby wxman57 » Wed Nov 10, 2010 12:21 pm

bvigal wrote:Weird, they are still updating Tomas.
(12z) ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Yes, VI and parts of PR had fl/flooding from this pineapple express. Ready for some hot sunshine and cool breezes but looks like it won't be for another couple days.


Tomas still has (had) an identifiable LLC at 12Z.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#36 Postby bvigal » Wed Nov 10, 2010 12:42 pm

wxman57 wrote:
bvigal wrote:Weird, they are still updating Tomas.
(12z) ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Yes, VI and parts of PR had fl/flooding from this pineapple express. Ready for some hot sunshine and cool breezes but looks like it won't be for another couple days.


Tomas still has (had) an identifiable LLC at 12Z.

Really? I confess I haven't looked at it since it crossed 30, more interested in the nearer gale and the seas it's generated. But it does look like 93 will be put to bed. It's a rainy trough, in rainy season, no surprise.
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#37 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:10 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST WED NOV 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#38 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:35 pm

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al932010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201011101819
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#39 Postby Blown Away » Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:43 pm

Can we say goodbye to the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season?
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#40 Postby Ntxw » Wed Nov 10, 2010 2:29 pm

Blown Away wrote:Can we say goodbye to the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season?


Not goodbye, maybe to this invest or another major, likely no greek either.
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