ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 09, 2010 5:59 am

For area north of Aruba.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al932010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201011090606
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2010, DB, O, 2010110906, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932010
AL, 93, 2010110806, , BEST, 0, 135N, 693W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010110812, , BEST, 0, 135N, 694W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010110818, , BEST, 0, 135N, 695W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010110900, , BEST, 0, 135N, 696W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010110906, , BEST, 0, 135N, 697W, 25, 1007, DB


Thread at Talking Tropics made by tolakram (Mark) about this area of interest.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109903&hilit=&p=2095683#p2095683
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#2 Postby Gustywind » Tue Nov 09, 2010 6:04 am

Oh damn, another Invest... :roll:
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#3 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 09, 2010 6:14 am

Image

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST TUE NOV 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 80 MILES
NORTH OF ARUBA AND CURACAO IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...
AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#4 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 09, 2010 6:49 am

7 AM EST TWO.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST TUE NOV 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES
NORTH OF ARUBA AND CURACAO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...
AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
SouthDadeFish
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2835
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

#5 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Nov 09, 2010 6:50 am

According to CIMSS wind shear products, there is an anticyclone sitting right over 93L. The main problem looks to be the dry air surrounding the disturbance and possible land interaction with Hispaniola in about two days.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#6 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 09, 2010 6:59 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST TUE NOV 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES
NORTH OF ARUBA AND CURACAO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...
AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART
0 likes   

Cyclone1
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2739
Age: 32
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:03 pm
Location: Florida

#7 Postby Cyclone1 » Tue Nov 09, 2010 7:13 am

Well.

I'm surprised. o_O
0 likes   

chrisjslucia
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 236
Joined: Thu Oct 09, 2008 8:27 pm
Location: St Lucia

Re:

#8 Postby chrisjslucia » Tue Nov 09, 2010 7:15 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:According to CIMSS wind shear products, there is an anticyclone sitting right over 93L. The main problem looks to be the dry air surrounding the disturbance and possible land interaction with Hispaniola in about two days.


Erm..."the main problem" ? SouthDade, do you mean the main problem to development? If so, I suspect many of us are hoping for as many problems as possible!! It does look very close to land and therefore limited time to develop, although it is reported as being stationary at present.
0 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10787
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#9 Postby GCANE » Tue Nov 09, 2010 7:28 am

Core is warm but broad.

Anti-cyclone over the LLC.

FIM was hinting on this last week.


Image

Image



Image
0 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10787
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#10 Postby GCANE » Tue Nov 09, 2010 7:57 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10787
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#11 Postby GCANE » Tue Nov 09, 2010 8:01 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10787
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#12 Postby GCANE » Tue Nov 09, 2010 8:06 am

Enough instability to keep convection firing.

http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/op ... /15070.gif
0 likes   

Florida1118
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1805
Age: 27
Joined: Sat Jun 19, 2010 12:57 pm
Location: Tampa, Florida

Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#13 Postby Florida1118 » Tue Nov 09, 2010 8:23 am

We can't even go 2 days without a Area marked....20 might come sooner than some of us thought...
0 likes   

User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2487
Age: 34
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

#14 Postby AdamFirst » Tue Nov 09, 2010 8:31 am

Doesn't have much room to operate, I assume?

It's still chilly up our way...and I imagine the waters are responding
0 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#15 Postby wxman57 » Tue Nov 09, 2010 9:59 am

Surface obs support a closed low center with a central pressure around 1008mb. Winds around the low are only 10-15 kts, though. Could be some 20-25 kts in the squalls north and east of the low center. Fair shot at developing, maybe as high as 50%. However, NHC gives themselves only a 10% chance of classifying it as a TD.
0 likes   

User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3642
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#16 Postby drezee » Tue Nov 09, 2010 10:46 am

wxman57 wrote:Surface obs support a closed low center with a central pressure around 1008mb. Winds around the low are only 10-15 kts, though. Could be some 20-25 kts in the squalls north and east of the low center. Fair shot at developing, maybe as high as 50%. However, NHC gives themselves only a 10% chance of classifying it as a TD.


How many bullets can Haiti dodge? I am about to start calling Hispanola, "Neo..."
0 likes   

Florida1118
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1805
Age: 27
Joined: Sat Jun 19, 2010 12:57 pm
Location: Tampa, Florida

Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#17 Postby Florida1118 » Tue Nov 09, 2010 10:47 am

Perhaps the NHC will up the chances to 30+...If they didn't think it would develop, They wouldnt have made it a invest so quick. No mention of recon thus far though. And from Dr.masters-

"Invest 93L in the Caribbean not currently a threat

An area of disturbed weather (Invest 93L) has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. The heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 93L is rather limited, due in part to some dry air to the north. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and SSTs are very warm, 29°C, so we will have to watch this area for signs of development. None of the reliable global forecast models for predicting tropical cyclone formation (GFS, NOGAPS, ECMWF, and UKMET) are developing 93L into a tropical depression over the coming week, and NHC is giving 93L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday."
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#18 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 09, 2010 1:36 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST TUE NOV 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
0 likes   

User avatar
HurricaneBelle
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 974
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:12 pm
Location: Clearwater, FL

Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#19 Postby HurricaneBelle » Tue Nov 09, 2010 1:40 pm

wxman57 wrote:However, NHC gives themselves only a 10% chance of classifying it as a TD.


Now that's some quality (and well-founded) snark.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#20 Postby wxman57 » Tue Nov 09, 2010 1:41 pm

I'd say that Invest 93L is most definitely a "threat". It's a significant threat for very heavy rainfall in Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands over the next 24-48 hrs. It's looking like the heavier rain may miss Haiti to the east.
0 likes   


Return to “2010”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 21 guests