WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (18W)

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2845
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (18W)

#1 Postby supercane » Thu Nov 11, 2010 12:41 pm

ABPW10 PGTW 111400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/111400Z-120600ZNOV2010//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0N
111.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 112.1E, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN ISLAND. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION. AN 111135Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS IMPROVED LOW LEVEL BANDING WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS) AND FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. A NEARBY OBSERVATION INDICATES A SURFACE PRESSURE
OF 1010 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED LLCC, HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND
DIVERGENCE ALOFT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
FAIR.//

Nothing on JMA 12Z analysis.

Image

Image

Image
Last edited by supercane on Fri Nov 12, 2010 8:49 pm, edited 4 times in total.
0 likes   

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2845
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W (JTWC: Fair)

#2 Postby supercane » Thu Nov 11, 2010 4:54 pm

WTPN21 PGTW 112030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 145 NM RADIUS OF 13.8N 112.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 112000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 112.7E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5N
112.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 112.7E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION PULSING OVER A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A SERIES OF PAST MICROWAVE
IMAGES INCLUDING AN 111854Z AMSU PASS. RECENT SHIP REPORTS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER SUGGEST INCREASING SURFACE
WIND SPEEDS AND DECREASING SEA LEVEL PRESSURES, WITH THE LOWEST
READING NEAR 1005 MB. THE DISTURBANCE LIES POLEWARD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS) AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON AN
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE, THE DECREASING SURFACE PRESSURE
TREND, AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
122030Z.//
NNNN

Image

JMA:
WARNING AND SUMMARY 111800.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 12N 112E WEST SLOWLY.

TPPN10 PGTW 112112
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (E OF VIETNAM)
B. 11/2030Z
C. 13.8N
D. 112.8E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
11/1741Z 13.8N 112.9E MMHS
UEHARA
0 likes   

RobWESTPACWX
WestPACMet
WestPACMet
Posts: 1615
Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
Location: Tokyo, Japan
Contact:

#3 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Thu Nov 11, 2010 5:27 pm

Just when I hope its over, this one pops. My thoughts though, theres about 50kts along the N peripery. Seems like it shouldnt get to strong but it is seeing some rapid intensification. I think I will go along with JTWC and be uncertain on this one. I figure its moving N but fcst intensity seems though, what do you guys think?
0 likes   
Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM

RobWESTPACWX
WestPACMet
WestPACMet
Posts: 1615
Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
Location: Tokyo, Japan
Contact:

Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W (TCFA issued)

#4 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Thu Nov 11, 2010 5:37 pm

Some more banding on the southern periphery, showing the rapid development of this system.

Image
0 likes   
Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46080
Age: 30
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

#5 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 11, 2010 7:02 pm

Image

Image

Latest
0 likes   

RobWESTPACWX
WestPACMet
WestPACMet
Posts: 1615
Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
Location: Tokyo, Japan
Contact:

#6 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Thu Nov 11, 2010 7:26 pm

A lot of dry air inflow along the southern periphery. But I do see a little bufst of convection near the center. Also some per sailwx some obs in the SCS are showing 35kt winds. So TS strength could be possible.
0 likes   
Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46080
Age: 30
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

#7 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 11, 2010 8:25 pm

Image

Latest
0 likes   

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2845
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

#8 Postby supercane » Thu Nov 11, 2010 8:37 pm

Latest satellite bulletins with Dvoraks of T1.0 and T1.5:
TPPN10 PGTW 120015
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (E OF VIETNAM)
B. 11/2330Z
C. 14.0N
D. 112.8E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/12HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .20 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. PT AGREES. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
11/2126Z 14.1N 112.8E SSMI
UEHARA

TXPN23 KNES 112102
SIMWIR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)
B. 11/2030Z
C. 13.7N
D. 112.6E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU
H. REMARKS...NEARLY STATIONARY LLC UNDER PULSING THOUGH CURRENTLY WARMING
CDO FEATURE. OVERALL STRUCTURE IS IMPRESSIVE FOR A DEVELOPING SYSTEM BUT
ORIENTATIONS AND PT LOOKS A BIT ST LIKE ATTM. STILL OUTER BAND MEASURES
.4 ON LOG10 FOR DT OF 2.5 WHICH IS A BIT UNREALISTIC ATTM. MET IS 1.0. PT
IS 1.5. FT BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
11/1742Z 13.5N 112.2E AMSU
...GALLINA
=

No Dvorak estimates from JMA yet.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46080
Age: 30
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

#9 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 11, 2010 10:29 pm

Image

Loop
0 likes   

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2845
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

#10 Postby supercane » Thu Nov 11, 2010 11:43 pm

Now a TD per JMA 00Z analysis:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 13N 113E ALMOST STATIONARY.

TXPN23 KNES 120306
SIMWIR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)
B. 12/0230Z
C. 12.9N
D. 112.2E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMI
H. REMARKS...THOUGH CDO HAS EVAPORATED (MINUS NEW VERY STRONG BURST NW
OF LLC) BANDING ON THE EXTERIOR BAND STILL MEASURES .3 FOR DT OF 1.5. MET
IS 1.0. PT IS 1.5. FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
11/2126Z 13.0N 112.3E SSMI
...GALLINA
=

Looks like ASCAT will miss yet again.
0 likes   

RobWESTPACWX
WestPACMet
WestPACMet
Posts: 1615
Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
Location: Tokyo, Japan
Contact:

Re: WPAC: TD (JMA)/INVEST 90W (JTWC TCFA issued)

#11 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Fri Nov 12, 2010 1:11 am

My thoughts on the TCFA right now

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mE0FQiaTTZM[/youtube]
0 likes   
Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM

RobWESTPACWX
WestPACMet
WestPACMet
Posts: 1615
Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
Location: Tokyo, Japan
Contact:

#12 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Fri Nov 12, 2010 3:41 am

Well good news is starting to move N and is really getting sheared apart by the Jet to the N. I don't think we will see a tropical here, a sub-tropical type system possible and it will bring heavy rains to Luzon and Taiwan. What I think, you guys?
0 likes   
Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46080
Age: 30
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

#13 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Nov 12, 2010 6:23 am

Image

Latest
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46080
Age: 30
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

#14 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Nov 12, 2010 10:40 am

Image

Image

Latest
0 likes   

RobWESTPACWX
WestPACMet
WestPACMet
Posts: 1615
Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
Location: Tokyo, Japan
Contact:

WPAC: TD 18W SCS

#15 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Fri Nov 12, 2010 4:45 pm

Now Tropical Depression 18W, moving to the W though, looks like most of it got sheared to the N but the center of circulation and the low level wind flow is moving to the W, looking at a landfall S of Hue Vietnam on the morning of the 13th as a TD.

Image


WTPN31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/112021Z NOV 10//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 13.1N 111.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 111.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 13.3N 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 13.9N 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 111.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305
NM SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 121730Z PGTW
SATELLITE FIX. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED
ON DVORAK T-NUMBER VALUES OF 1.5 FROM KNES AND PGTW AS WELL AS A
121416Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 25 KNOT UNFLAGGED WIND BARBS NEAR THE
CYCLONE CENTER. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT
CONVECTION OVER AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. TD
18W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY ALL OF THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR WBAR, WHICH ERRONEOUSLY DEPICTS
RECURVATURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH. TD 18W LIES
NORTHWEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTER IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNDER THE COMPETING INFLUENCES OF MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH. BY TAU 24, THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INLAND
AND DISSIPATE BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 112021Z NOV
10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 112030). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM

RobWESTPACWX
WestPACMet
WestPACMet
Posts: 1615
Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
Location: Tokyo, Japan
Contact:

Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (18W)

#16 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Fri Nov 12, 2010 9:29 pm

My thoughts today on the storm. Let me know what you guys think.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=csvAsSIFpnQ[/youtube]
0 likes   
Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2845
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

#17 Postby supercane » Fri Nov 12, 2010 10:29 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 13.4N 111.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 111.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 13.9N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.6N 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 110.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275
NM SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.//
NNNN

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON A 122330Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 122359Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KNOTS IS
BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBER VALUES OF 1.5 FROM PGTW AS WELL AS
STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS DISPLACING THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH TD 18W TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC).
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE FOR TD 18W.
B. TD 18W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH REMAINS THE DOMINANT
STEERING INFLUENCE. THIS TRACK SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. TD 18W LIES NORTHWEST OF AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTER IN AN AREA OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS INCREASING IN MAGNITUDE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OR WEAKEN UNDER THE COMPETING
INFLUENCES OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. BY TAU 24, THE CYCLONE WILL
MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF
25 KNOTS. HOWEVER, DUE TO EFFECTS OF SUSTAINED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
DISSIPATION MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO LANDFALL.//
NNNN
0 likes   

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2845
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

#18 Postby supercane » Sat Nov 13, 2010 12:15 am

TXPN23 KNES 130328
SIMWIR
A. 18W (NONAME)
B. 13/0230Z
C. 13.3N
D. 110.8E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...DT=2.0 BASED ON 3.5/10 BANDING BUT NO LONGER WHITE AS
INTENSITY OF CONVECTION NEAR CENTER NOW LESS. MET=2.5 BUT PAT=2.0. FT
BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SWANSON
=

JMA 00Z:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 13N 112E ALMOST STATIONARY.
0 likes   

RobWESTPACWX
WestPACMet
WestPACMet
Posts: 1615
Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
Location: Tokyo, Japan
Contact:

Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (18W)

#19 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Sat Nov 13, 2010 6:45 am

Some of the latest, still sheared off to the N but the banding to the south is improving.

Image



Image

Image
0 likes   
Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2845
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

#20 Postby supercane » Sat Nov 13, 2010 4:21 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 14.4N 109.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 109.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 14.7N 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 14.9N 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 109.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM SOUTHEAST
OF DA_NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION
HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED BUT HAS FLARED IN THE LAST
TWO HOURS IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT IN AN AREA OF STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND
EXTRAPOLATION. TD 18W HAS MAINTAINED A WEAK INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS,
BASED ON THE LATEST PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES. TD 18W IS
ENCOUNTERING INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)OF 25-30KTS AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CHINA MOVES EASTWARD. THE COMPETING
INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND INCREASING VWS ARE
EXPECTED TO OFFSET EACH OTHER IN THE SHOT TERM, KEEPING THE SYSTEM AT
ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH LANDFALL. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM THROUGH THE 24
HOUR FORECAST. AFTER TAU 12, THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INLAND AND
DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 9 FEET. AT
111318 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 126 NM SE OF DA NANG.//
NNNN
0 likes   


Return to “2010”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests