ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#101 Postby GCANE » Thu Nov 18, 2010 9:50 am

The outflow channels are there; but the surface has a long way to go.

One thing that happens this time of year is that large hot-towers do fire in the Carib.

Water-temps, and therefore boundary-layer temps, are very warm and UL temps are cold.

If a good long one fires, it could get interesting.


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#102 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 18, 2010 10:14 am

NOUS42 KNHC 181500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EST THU 18 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-170

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- WEATERN CARIBBEAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 19/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 19/1430Z
D. 17.0N AND 87.0W
E. 19/1700-2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE DOUBLE NEGATIVE.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#103 Postby wxman57 » Thu Nov 18, 2010 10:48 am

Environmental pressures are high in the NW Caribbean (1015-1017mb). Wind shear is also high in the region and higher just north of the disturbance. Development chances are low.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#104 Postby GCANE » Thu Nov 18, 2010 10:52 am

The overshooting tops east of the Mexico / Belize border in the middle of this VIS loop (17.5N 85W) looks interesting.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... 20&lon=-85
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#105 Postby Sanibel » Thu Nov 18, 2010 11:07 am

I thought it might re-fire. The reason being anything that still had spin like that convection-free center over those west Caribbean waters had a chance of re-fire. Looks like conditions aren't strong enough to support it though:


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#106 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 18, 2010 12:04 pm

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al942010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201011181645
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2010, DB, O, 2010111218, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942010
AL, 94, 2010111118, , BEST, 0, 113N, 745W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010111200, , BEST, 0, 112N, 750W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010111206, , BEST, 0, 112N, 754W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010111212, , BEST, 0, 111N, 758W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010111218, , BEST, 0, 111N, 762W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 94, 2010111300, , BEST, 0, 111N, 765W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 94, 2010111306, , BEST, 0, 111N, 767W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 94, 2010111312, , BEST, 0, 111N, 768W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 125, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 94, 2010111318, , BEST, 0, 111N, 769W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 94, 2010111400, , BEST, 0, 111N, 770W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 94, 2010111406, , BEST, 0, 113N, 773W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010111412, , BEST, 0, 116N, 776W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 94, 2010111418, , BEST, 0, 120N, 780W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 170, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 94, 2010111500, , BEST, 0, 121N, 784W, 20, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 94, 2010111506, , BEST, 0, 119N, 780W, 20, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 94, 2010111512, , BEST, 0, 120N, 773W, 20, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 94, 2010111518, , BEST, 0, 118N, 767W, 20, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 94, 2010111600, , BEST, 0, 121N, 768W, 20, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 175, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 94, 2010111606, , BEST, 0, 122N, 773W, 20, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 94, 2010111612, , BEST, 0, 170N, 855W, 25, 1014, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#107 Postby GCANE » Thu Nov 18, 2010 12:06 pm

Has a well defined PV anomoly at 500mb; 18.5N 82.5W

I don't see any circulation above or below it.

CAPE is high enough to support continuous convection.



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Re:

#108 Postby GCANE » Thu Nov 18, 2010 12:21 pm

HURAKAN wrote:BEGIN
AL, 94, 2010111612, , BEST, 0, 170N, 855W, 25, 1014, LO,


So, is 94L reactivated and they just made a typo on the date?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#109 Postby FireRat » Thu Nov 18, 2010 12:36 pm

Is is really back? NHC site doesn't list it. It would be interesting to see the invest brought back, and it's in a notorious part of the Caribbean. Just when we all began thinking it's over, gotta remember the season ends the 30th. Some years see activity around Thanksgiving, and this year wouldn't surprise me if we did get one a few days from now. We'll just have to see if anything persists down there for a couple of days.
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#110 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 18, 2010 12:49 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU NOV 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AT 1500 UTC...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM W CUBA TO HONDURAS
ALONG 85W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 80W-89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO INLAND OVER W HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA.
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#111 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 18, 2010 12:52 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST THU NOV 18 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED NORTH OF HONDURAS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE RELATIVELY
HIGH...AND UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND OVER BELIZE AND GUATEMALA BY LATE TOMORROW...LIMITING THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. NEVERTHELESS...THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

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#112 Postby Ntxw » Thu Nov 18, 2010 1:06 pm

There is a lot of shear in the area and doesn't look to die down (you can see from the clouds streaming northeast). Personally I think it's being enhanced/squeezed by a frontal boundary of some sort. Perhaps a surprise extra tropical entity? Though not likely.

Image

Frontal Boundary in the Gulf/North Carib
Image
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Re: Re:

#113 Postby wxman57 » Thu Nov 18, 2010 3:56 pm

GCANE wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:BEGIN
AL, 94, 2010111612, , BEST, 0, 170N, 855W, 25, 1014, LO,


So, is 94L reactivated and they just made a typo on the date?


I notice that the model run also has a 12-hr movement of 301 deg at 49 kts.

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.0N LONCUR = 85.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 12.2N LONM12 = 77.3W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 = 49KT

That's likely due to it assuming that the disturbance moved from its position 2-3 days ago (12.2N/77.3W) to its current position in 12 hours.
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Re:

#114 Postby wxman57 » Thu Nov 18, 2010 3:57 pm

Ntxw wrote:There is a lot of shear in the area and doesn't look to die down (you can see from the clouds streaming northeast). Personally I think it's being enhanced/squeezed by a frontal boundary of some sort. Perhaps a surprise extra tropical entity? Though not likely.


Agree, shear is high and a frontal boundary is and will remain just to its north. It should move inland into the Yucatan over the next 24-36 hours without developing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#115 Postby MGC » Thu Nov 18, 2010 5:27 pm

Yea, unless 94L does some kind of rapid unexpected development tonight....it looks like 94L will be inland before it can get cranking......MGC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#116 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 18, 2010 6:48 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST THU NOV 18 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF
HONDURAS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE RELATIVELY
HIGH AND PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING ACROSS THAT AREA. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER BELIZE AND GUATEMALA BY
LATE TOMORROW...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
THE TYPE OF DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#117 Postby Sanibel » Thu Nov 18, 2010 6:50 pm

Still, though, a repeating Belize track.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#118 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 18, 2010 7:30 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#119 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Nov 18, 2010 10:43 pm

Plan of the Day
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
NOUS42 KNHC 181500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EST THU 18 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-170

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- WEATERN CARIBBEAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 19/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 19/1430Z
D. 17.0N AND 87.0W
E. 19/1700-2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#120 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 19, 2010 6:44 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST FRI NOV 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...WEST
OF THE BAY ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER
BELIZE AND GUATEMALA LATER TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THE DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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