ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

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#81 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Nov 16, 2010 2:54 am

Unchanged at 1AM, remains at 20%
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#82 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Nov 16, 2010 6:59 am

7AM, still 20%
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#83 Postby GCANE » Tue Nov 16, 2010 7:15 am

Not much left on WV.

Air is stabilizing; i.e. convective cap is in place; CINH = 27.

Looks like it is over.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#84 Postby plasticup » Tue Nov 16, 2010 7:57 am

I really thought we had a shot at Hurricane Alpha this year, but without this picking up Virginie I don't see us getting there. Probably best for Nicaragua though!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#85 Postby Sanibel » Tue Nov 16, 2010 11:07 am

It's definitely consolidated better, it just lost all of its convection (lol). Models failed to read the dry air that consumed it. Watching for very remote chance of refire.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#86 Postby Ntxw » Tue Nov 16, 2010 1:05 pm

It had a small window to organize but took too long. Heat content, and surface temps aren't conducive anymore in the area for development. Continues to cool off.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#87 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 16, 2010 2:20 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST TUE NOV 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND THE
CIRCULATION OF THE LOW HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED THIS MORNING.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BLAKE

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#88 Postby wxman57 » Tue Nov 16, 2010 4:12 pm

Bones can't take it any more.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#89 Postby wxman57 » Tue Nov 16, 2010 6:39 pm

The end...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST TUE NOV 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS LIMITED...
AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#90 Postby Ntxw » Tue Nov 16, 2010 7:19 pm

Smooth sailing!

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#91 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 17, 2010 5:41 am

And here is the last nail on the coffin.

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al942010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201011170518
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#92 Postby Sanibel » Wed Nov 17, 2010 11:35 am

Minor re-fire but conditions won't support it.
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#93 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 18, 2010 5:49 am

Image

94L is fighting!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#94 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 18, 2010 8:30 am

Image

Looks interesting in the visible
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#95 Postby GCANE » Thu Nov 18, 2010 8:50 am

Looks like this was a shear-induced MCS.

Rain rate has been light but the area of coverage has expanded in the last 24 hrs.

A new anti-cyclone has developed close by.

It could be trying to transistion to a warm core.

Need to see how this goes in the next 24 hrs.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#96 Postby GCANE » Thu Nov 18, 2010 8:52 am

Pressure is pretty high at the Yucatan Buoy.

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#97 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 18, 2010 8:53 am

I have been looking at the visible loops and there's nothing I can see at the surface. It looks interesting but that's all for now! Persistence is always the key.
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#98 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 18, 2010 9:05 am

Some of the posters in WU are going nuts arguing this is close to a tropical depression, if not one already. LOL
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Re:

#99 Postby GCANE » Thu Nov 18, 2010 9:35 am

HURAKAN wrote:Some of the posters in WU are going nuts arguing this is close to a tropical depression, if not one already. LOL



LOL.

Four letters: MSLP
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#100 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 18, 2010 9:38 am

Image

People tend to make the mistake sometimes that if looks like a depression, it must be a depression. Looks aren't everything.
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