ATL : INVEST 94L - Models

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ATL : INVEST 94L - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 12, 2010 12:53 pm

All about the model guidance global and bams here.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 12, 2010 12:56 pm

Canadian continues to develop it.This is the 12z run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Models

#3 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 12, 2010 1:17 pm

18z Tropical Models

SHIP is very bullish with 94L.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 121813
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1813 UTC FRI NOV 12 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20101112 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101112  1800   101113  0600   101113  1800   101114  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.1N  76.2W   10.9N  77.0W   10.5N  77.9W   10.3N  78.2W
BAMD    11.1N  76.2W   11.1N  77.3W   11.0N  78.5W   10.8N  79.9W
BAMM    11.1N  76.2W   10.9N  77.3W   10.4N  78.3W    9.9N  79.2W
LBAR    11.1N  76.2W   11.4N  77.0W   12.3N  77.5W   13.7N  77.5W
SHIP        20KTS          26KTS          35KTS          45KTS
DSHP        20KTS          26KTS          35KTS          45KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101114  1800   101115  1800   101116  1800   101117  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.3N  78.3W   11.6N  78.3W   14.6N  79.1W   17.2N  81.1W
BAMD    10.6N  81.4W   10.1N  84.6W    9.9N  87.9W   10.2N  92.2W
BAMM     9.5N  79.9W    9.4N  80.9W   10.7N  82.0W   12.2N  83.5W
LBAR    15.2N  76.8W   18.4N  73.4W   21.5N  70.8W   24.5N  69.7W
SHIP        56KTS          69KTS          69KTS          66KTS
DSHP        56KTS          69KTS          69KTS          66KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.1N LONCUR =  76.2W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR =   4KT
LATM12 =  11.2N LONM12 =  75.4W DIRM12 = 263DEG SPDM12 =   4KT
LATM24 =  11.3N LONM24 =  74.5W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 

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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Models

#4 Postby GCANE » Fri Nov 12, 2010 1:39 pm

12Z FIM misses a Cuba landfall and steers a hard right toward the NW coast of Jamaica.

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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Models

#5 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 12, 2010 1:51 pm

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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Models

#6 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 12, 2010 7:08 pm

The first run by HWRF for 94L is not so bullish as it only reaches minimal tropical storm strengh.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

The first run by GFDL for 94L has a cat 1 hurricane.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Models

#7 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 12, 2010 8:57 pm

00z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 130100
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0100 UTC SAT NOV 13 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20101113 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101113  0000   101113  1200   101114  0000   101114  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.1N  76.5W   11.0N  77.4W   11.0N  78.2W   11.1N  78.6W
BAMD    11.1N  76.5W   11.1N  77.8W   10.8N  79.2W   10.5N  80.6W
BAMM    11.1N  76.5W   11.0N  77.4W   10.7N  78.2W   10.4N  79.0W
LBAR    11.1N  76.5W   11.5N  77.3W   12.7N  77.7W   14.1N  77.7W
SHIP        20KTS          26KTS          35KTS          46KTS
DSHP        20KTS          26KTS          35KTS          46KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101115  0000   101116  0000   101117  0000   101118  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.2N  79.0W   12.7N  80.6W   15.4N  83.0W   16.8N  85.4W
BAMD    10.1N  82.2W    8.9N  85.4W    7.9N  88.4W    6.9N  93.1W
BAMM    10.1N  79.6W   10.3N  81.1W   12.9N  83.1W   15.6N  85.3W
LBAR    15.5N  76.8W   18.0N  74.3W   20.9N  73.3W   22.9N  72.9W
SHIP        56KTS          71KTS          72KTS          70KTS
DSHP        56KTS          71KTS          72KTS          34KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.1N LONCUR =  76.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =   3KT
LATM12 =  11.1N LONM12 =  75.8W DIRM12 = 263DEG SPDM12 =   4KT
LATM24 =  11.2N LONM24 =  75.0W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 

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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Models

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 13, 2010 8:31 am

12z Tropical Models.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 131239
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1239 UTC SAT NOV 13 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20101113 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101113  1200   101114  0000   101114  1200   101115  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.1N  76.8W   11.2N  77.6W   11.2N  78.2W   11.3N  78.7W
BAMD    11.1N  76.8W   11.3N  77.8W   11.4N  78.8W   11.4N  80.0W
BAMM    11.1N  76.8W   11.0N  77.6W   11.0N  78.6W   10.9N  79.5W
LBAR    11.1N  76.8W   11.5N  77.4W   12.4N  77.8W   13.5N  77.8W
SHIP        20KTS          26KTS          33KTS          43KTS
DSHP        20KTS          26KTS          33KTS          43KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101115  1200   101116  1200   101117  1200   101118  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.5N  79.4W   12.9N  81.5W   15.1N  83.8W   16.1N  86.3W
BAMD    11.4N  81.5W   11.6N  84.9W   12.7N  88.0W   14.1N  91.3W
BAMM    10.9N  80.6W   11.5N  83.0W   13.0N  85.6W   14.0N  88.2W
LBAR    14.3N  77.6W   16.0N  77.6W   19.0N  78.3W   20.5N  77.8W
SHIP        55KTS          70KTS          72KTS          71KTS
DSHP        55KTS          70KTS          35KTS          28KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.1N LONCUR =  76.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =   2KT
LATM12 =  11.1N LONM12 =  76.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =   2KT
LATM24 =  11.1N LONM24 =  75.8W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  125NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Models

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 13, 2010 3:23 pm

12z ECMWF goes to Belize.

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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Models

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 13, 2010 3:41 pm

12z GFDL has a moderate Tropical Storm making landfall in Nicaragua.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

12z HWRF has a weak Tropical Storm moving slowly,without making landfall anywhere at end of the run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 14, 2010 11:24 am

Code: Select all

494
WHXX01 KWBC 141353
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1353 UTC SUN NOV 14 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20101114 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101114  1200   101115  0000   101115  1200   101116  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.1N  77.8W   11.3N  78.0W   11.3N  78.5W   11.7N  79.3W
BAMD    11.1N  77.8W   11.2N  78.7W   11.1N  79.9W   11.2N  81.4W
BAMM    11.1N  77.8W   11.1N  78.3W   10.7N  79.2W   10.6N  80.4W
LBAR    11.1N  77.8W   11.3N  78.5W   11.8N  79.4W   12.4N  80.5W
SHIP        20KTS          23KTS          29KTS          37KTS
DSHP        20KTS          23KTS          29KTS          37KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101116  1200   101117  1200   101118  1200   101119  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.4N  80.2W   14.3N  82.3W   14.6N  85.4W   12.4N  88.7W
BAMD    11.7N  83.0W   13.4N  85.8W   13.9N  89.3W   13.3N  93.9W
BAMM    10.7N  81.7W   11.9N  83.8W   11.7N  87.0W    9.5N  91.9W
LBAR    13.1N  81.6W   16.3N  84.0W   18.5N  85.2W   19.1N  84.5W
SHIP        46KTS          59KTS          64KTS          63KTS
DSHP        46KTS          51KTS          35KTS          35KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.1N LONCUR =  77.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =   3KT
LATM12 =  11.1N LONM12 =  77.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =   2KT
LATM24 =  11.1N LONM24 =  76.8W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN


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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Models

#12 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 18, 2010 2:37 pm

They are running the bams again for 94L ,but without the SHIP intensity model.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 181932
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1932 UTC THU NOV 18 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20101116 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101116  1800   101117  0600   101117  1800   101118  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.0N  85.5W   17.5N  86.8W   17.7N  88.4W   17.8N  89.9W
BAMD    17.0N  85.5W   18.9N  86.2W   21.3N  86.1W   24.1N  84.3W
BAMM    17.0N  85.5W   17.9N  86.7W   18.8N  87.8W   19.4N  88.7W
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101118  1800   101119  1800   101120  1800   101121  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.2N  91.7W   15.8N  96.5W   15.7N 100.5W   15.3N 104.6W
BAMD    27.1N  77.8W   30.9N  54.0W   36.2N  39.6W   43.4N  29.9W
BAMM    19.3N  89.4W   18.3N  91.8W   18.6N  94.3W   18.8N  96.7W
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  17.0N LONCUR =  85.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =   5KT
LATM12 =  12.2N LONM12 =  77.3W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 =  49KT
LATM24 =  11.8N LONM24 =  76.7W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =  100NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Models

#13 Postby wxman57 » Thu Nov 18, 2010 3:45 pm

Something goofy there - note the model issue time of 18Z Nov 16th with a 12hr movement of 301 deg at 49 kts.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Models

#14 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 18, 2010 8:44 pm

SHIP is incorporated in the 00z run.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 190042
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0042 UTC FRI NOV 19 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20101119 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101119  0000   101119  1200   101120  0000   101120  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.9N  85.8W   16.1N  88.3W   15.5N  90.9W   15.0N  93.4W
BAMD    16.9N  85.8W   17.3N  87.3W   17.8N  88.9W   18.5N  90.4W
BAMM    16.9N  85.8W   16.6N  87.6W   16.4N  89.7W   16.2N  91.8W
LBAR    16.9N  85.8W   17.4N  87.0W   18.1N  88.1W   18.8N  89.2W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          31KTS          31KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          27KTS          27KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101121  0000   101122  0000   101123  0000   101124  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.6N  96.0W   14.0N 101.1W   13.9N 106.4W   14.0N 111.9W
BAMD    19.3N  91.8W   21.0N  94.6W   24.6N  97.1W   30.3N  88.8W
BAMM    16.1N  93.8W   16.0N  98.3W   16.8N 102.7W   17.7N 106.2W
LBAR    19.5N  90.1W   21.0N  92.1W   23.1N  93.2W   24.9N  92.8W
SHIP        32KTS          28KTS          26KTS          24KTS
DSHP        27KTS          29KTS          27KTS          25KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.9N LONCUR =  85.8W DIRCUR = 294DEG SPDCUR =   5KT
LATM12 =  16.6N LONM12 =  84.9W DIRM12 = 298DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  15.9N LONM24 =  83.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Models

#15 Postby Blown Away » Fri Nov 19, 2010 2:47 pm

None of these late season storms have followed anything close to climatology.
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