SW PAC: Tropical Disturbance (INVEST 93P)

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Chacor
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SW PAC: Tropical Disturbance (INVEST 93P)

#1 Postby Chacor » Sat Nov 13, 2010 11:00 am

First SWPAC invest of the season, as usual with most invests in this region starting off as a bit of a trough...

Image

RSMC Nadi:

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 13/0842 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED NEAR 15.0S 175.0E AT 130600 UTC SLOW
MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL
OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES.

ORGANISATION HAS NOT IMPROVED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM, BUT HAS NOT
INCREASED MUCH ELSEWHERE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS FROM SURFACE TO 700HPA. SYSTEM LIES TO THE EAST OF A 250 HPA SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND ARE SLOWLY MOVING IT IN
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
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Grifforzer
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#2 Postby Grifforzer » Mon Nov 15, 2010 2:16 pm

At 18:00 PM FST, Tropical Disturbance located at 20.1S 174.2E is reported as moving south at 8 knots. Position POOR based on multispectral infrared imagery with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 26C.

Convection has been irregular near the low level circulation center for the last 12 hours.

Global models expect the system to weaken as it moves southward.

This system will not develop into a tropical cyclone, therefore no more forecast will be issued for this disturbance
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