SIO- TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE)

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SIO- TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE)

#1 Postby wyq614 » Tue Nov 23, 2010 5:46 pm

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is located at 6.4S 89.3E
ECMWF keeps trying to develop something in that area these days.
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#2 Postby Crostorm » Fri Nov 26, 2010 1:57 am

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.2S 88.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 970 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. THE DISTURBANCE IS
SHOWING PRELIMINARY SIGNS OF CONSOLIDATION DESPITE MODERATE TO HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. STREAMLINE ANALYSIS OF THE GRADIENT LEVEL
INDICATES THERE IS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH, THOUGH IT IS NOT READILY APPARENT IN
ANIMATED INFRARED OR MICROWAVE IMAGERY. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED OVERNIGHT AS THE REGION APPROACHES DIURNAL MAXIMUM.
HOWEVER, THIS CONVECTION IS FRAGMENTED AND UNORGANIZED. A RECENT
AMSU RADIAL HEIGHT CROSS SECTION ALSO SUGGESTS A DEVELOPING WARM
ANOMALY ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR DUE TO ADVERSE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS.
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Re: SIO- Invest 95S

#3 Postby Crostorm » Fri Nov 26, 2010 1:58 am

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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 28, 2010 1:35 pm

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Re: SIO- Invest 95S

#5 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 28, 2010 1:36 pm

ABIO10 PGTW 281800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/281800Z-291800ZNOV2010//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.7S 86.4E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 86.4E, APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 281257Z
SSMIS IMAGE AND A 281519Z METOP-A IMAGE INDICATE IMPROVING
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC. THE
SSMIS WIND PRODUCT AND THE 281519Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOW AN ELONGATED
LLCC WITH 15-20 KNOT CORE WINDS AND 25-30 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTH
AND SOUTH PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER
CONVECTIVE BANDS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE LLCC IS LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BUT
IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK
TO MODERATE VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN
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Re: SIO- Invest 95S

#6 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 28, 2010 8:09 pm

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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 28, 2010 8:12 pm

Image

WTXS21 PGTW 282300
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3S 86.9E TO 14.8S 85.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 282230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.1S 86.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.4S
86.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1S 86.7E, APPROXIMATELY 875 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A LARGE BURST OF
INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FORMING OVER THE CENTER. A
281931Z AMSR-E 36 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
SIGNATURE WITH A DEFINED LLCC. THE 281519Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED AN
ELONGATED LLCC WITH 15-20 KNOT CORE WINDS AND 25-30 KNOT WINDS ALONG
THE NORTH AND SOUTH PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONGER CONVECTIVE BANDS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE LLCC IS LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
BUT IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 292300Z.//
NNNN
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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 28, 2010 10:56 pm

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#9 Postby wyq614 » Mon Nov 29, 2010 2:20 am

Potential Cyclones:
At midday, a weak low [02U] was located near 11.4S 86.1E. Although the low may
develop over the next two days it is expected to remain west of 90E. On Thursday
the system may approach 90E.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the the Western Region:
Tuesday :Very Low
Wednesday :Very Low
Thursday :Low

http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/forecasts/nwcyclone.shtml
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#10 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 29, 2010 5:48 am

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29/0830 UTC 11.5S 86.2E T2.0/2.0 95S -- Southwest Indian
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Re:

#11 Postby Chacor » Mon Nov 29, 2010 7:03 am

wyq614 wrote:Potential Cyclones:
At midday, a weak low [02U] was located near 11.4S 86.1E. Although the low may
develop over the next two days it is expected to remain west of 90E. On Thursday
the system may approach 90E.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the the Western Region:
Tuesday :Very Low
Wednesday :Very Low
Thursday :Low

http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/forecasts/nwcyclone.shtml


Interesting, why would they number something not in their area?
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Re: SIO- Invest 95S

#12 Postby P.K. » Mon Nov 29, 2010 7:29 am

WTIO20 FMEE 291225
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 29/11/2010
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 29/11/2010 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.0S / 85.7E
(TWELVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES
EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 60 NM FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM
RADIUS IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 150
NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2010/11/30 AT 00 UTC:
12.5S / 85.6E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H, VALID 2010/11/30 AT 12 UTC:
13.3S / 85.7E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE SYSTEM THAT HAS
SLOWLY TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARD.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFIED SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.=
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Re: SIO- Invest 95S

#13 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 29, 2010 7:57 am

Image

35kts-996mb

Seems like the JTWC is pulling the trigger
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#14 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 29, 2010 7:58 am

TPXS10 PGTW 291212

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95S (SW OF SUMATRA)

B. 29/1130Z

C. 12.0S

D. 85.0E

E. SIX/MET7

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/18HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPPED A .40 ON LOG
10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF A 2.5. MET UNAVAILABLE. PT YILEDS A
2.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
29/0716Z 11.7S 85.4E TRMM
29/0746Z 11.8S 85.6E AMSR
29/0800Z 11.9S 85.3E MMHS
29/0834Z 11.9S 85.0E MMHS


GATES
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#15 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 29, 2010 9:04 am

Image

WTXS31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 11.9S 85.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 85.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 12.5S 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 13.4S 84.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 14.3S 85.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.3S 87.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.3S 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.8S 96.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 84.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) THREE (03S), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM WEST
OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS MOVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS CONSOLIDATED
WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD DENSE OVERCAST DEEPENING OVER THE
LLCC WITH IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
A 291130Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KTS FROM PGTW. THE LLCC IS LOCATED JUST
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 03S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. IT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ON A MORE SOUTHWARD DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO THE
SOUTH, TC 03S WILL RECURVE AND ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN
AS VWS INCREASES. THE LIMITED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL
AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST WITH GFDN FAVORING A MORE EASTWARD
TRACK AFTER TAU 36. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 282251Z NOV 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21
PGTW 282300 ). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z AND 301500Z.//
NNNN
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Re: SIO- Invest 95S

#16 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 29, 2010 12:23 pm

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#17 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 29, 2010 12:37 pm

ZCZC 371
WTIO30 FMEE 291243
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/2/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2
2.A POSITION 2010/11/29 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.0S / 85.7E
(TWELVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM):
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/11/30 00 UTC: 12.5S/85.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
24H: 2010/11/30 12 UTC: 13.3S/85.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
36H: 2010/12/01 00 UTC: 14.0S/85.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2010/12/01 12 UTC: 14.5S/86.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
60H: 2010/12/02 00 UTC: 14.9S/86.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
72H: 2010/12/02 12 UTC: 15.3S/87.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0
CONVECTION BEGIN TO ORGANIZE, BUT REMAINS MAINLY PRESENT IN THE
WESTERN
PART OF THE CIRCULATION DUE TO A RATHER STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR. THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED, BUT IT IS
DIFFICULT
TO LOCATE IT. IT IS SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARD.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS FORECAST A SLOW SOUTHWARD TRACK FOR THE SYSTEM
WITHIN THE NEXT 24/36 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK, EASTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR
MIGHT DECREASE UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXISTING IN THE SOUTH.
TRADE
WINDS INFLOW REMAINS RATHER GOOD FOR THE PERIOD. BEYOND 36/48 HOURS,
THE
SYSTEM SHOULD R
ECURVE SOUTH-EASTWARD AND UNDERGO AGAIN A NORTH-WESTERLY WINDSHEAR
UNDER
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. SST POTENTIAL REMAINS GOOD WITHIN
THE
NEXT 3/4 DAYS, NORTH OF 16S, DESPITE ITS DECREASING TOWARDS THE
SOUTH.
SO, FROM TUESDAY TO THURSDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE
FOR AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS (CEP,ARP,
UK,
ALADIN REUNION) SLOWLY DEEPEN THIS LOW UP TO WEDNESDAY IN THE
EVENING=
NNNN
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Re: SIO- TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S

#18 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 29, 2010 9:36 pm

WTXS31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 12.6S 84.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 84.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 13.1S 84.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.7S 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 14.7S 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.7S 87.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.8S 92.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.3S 95.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 23.7S 98.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 84.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) THREE (03S), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 740 NM WEST
OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEPENING CENTRAL
CONVECTION. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON
THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE LLCC IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND A
POSSIBLE SECONDARY CIRCULATION TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 03S IS LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 03S IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-
LEVEL STR TO THE SOUTH. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND RECURVE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ERODES THE
RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND STEADILY INTENSIFY
THROUGH TAU 72, BUT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED
VWS AND UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 20.0S. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z AND 010300Z.//
NNNN

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RobWESTPACWX
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Re: SIO- TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S

#19 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Mon Nov 29, 2010 9:49 pm

My thoughts on 03S, along with some daily stuff from the West Pac.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rWkrK6hMcc[/youtube]
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Reesie
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Re: Re:

#20 Postby Reesie » Mon Nov 29, 2010 9:57 pm

Chacor wrote:
wyq614 wrote:Potential Cyclones:
At midday, a weak low [02U] was located near 11.4S 86.1E. Although the low may
develop over the next two days it is expected to remain west of 90E. On Thursday
the system may approach 90E.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the the Western Region:
Tuesday :Very Low
Wednesday :Very Low
Thursday :Low

http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/forecasts/nwcyclone.shtml


Interesting, why would they number something not in their area?


From what ive gathered from email discussions with senior BoM forecasters. Should they think a Tropical Low could become a tropical cyclone within the Australian region as a whole then they number it. Examples include Bernard & Innis 2008-09 and Imani 2009-10.
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