SIO- TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE)

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supercane
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#21 Postby supercane » Mon Nov 29, 2010 11:13 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 300054
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/2/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 ()
2.A POSITION 2010/11/30 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.7S / 86.1E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: SE: SO: 350 NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/11/30 12 UTC: 13.3S/86.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2010/12/01 00 UTC: 13.9S/86.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
36H: 2010/12/01 12 UTC: 14.6S/86.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2010/12/02 00 UTC: 15.2S/87.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
60H: 2010/12/02 12 UTC: 15.7S/88.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
72H: 2010/12/03 00 UTC: 16.4S/90.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+
DT=3.0 WITH LLCC LESS THAN 0.5 FROM DG. MET=2.0 AND PT =2.0. FT BASED ON
PT.
MW IMAGERY FROM TRMM AND NOAA19 SHOW THAT LLCC IS WELL EAST FROM DEEP
CONVECTION AND REMAINS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED ... SO AGAIN CURRENT FIX IS
RELOCATED A BIT TO THE EAST.
VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS PULSED IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION
WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE UP TO -90C ON IR IMAGERY FROM MET7. T NUM FROM
PGTW AND KNES HAVE RAISED TO T2.5. PRESENT FIX IS IN THE LOW RANGE
ESTIMATE ACCORDING TO THE LACK OF ORGANISATION OF THE LLCC SEEN IN MW ...
HOWEVER IT IS
ASSUMED THAT NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXIST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN IN A LOW STEERING FLOW DURING THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS AND MOST GUIDANCE SUGGEST A SOUTHWARDS DRIFT. AFTER THAT, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BE CATCH WITHIN A WESTERLY STEERING FLOW SOUTH OF THE LOW
TO MID LEVEL EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND NORTH OF AN UPPER TO MID LEVEL MID-LAT
TROUGH. CONSEQUEN
TLY, IT SHOULD ACCELERATE ON A EASTSOUTHEASTERLY TRACK. THE PRESENT
TRACK FORECAST IS FASTER AND MORE TO THE EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT CHANGED STILL SHOW A 36HRS WINDOW FOR
INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE UNDER LIGHT SHEAR. THEN SHEAR
SHOULD BUILD BACK AND A WEAKENING TREND FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST STIPS OUTPUT.
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#22 Postby Crostorm » Tue Nov 30, 2010 1:14 am

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WTXS31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 12.6S 84.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 84.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 13.1S 84.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.7S 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 14.7S 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.7S 87.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.8S 92.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.3S 95.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 23.7S 98.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 84.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) THREE (03S), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 740 NM WEST
OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEPENING CENTRAL
CONVECTION. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON
THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE LLCC IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND A
POSSIBLE SECONDARY CIRCULATION TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 03S IS LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 03S IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-
LEVEL STR TO THE SOUTH. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND RECURVE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ERODES THE
RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND STEADILY INTENSIFY
THROUGH TAU 72, BUT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED
VWS AND UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 20.0S. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z AND 010300Z.//
NNNN


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#23 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 30, 2010 7:29 am

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Re: SIO- TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S

#24 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 30, 2010 11:58 am

ZCZC 296
WTIO30 FMEE 301209
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/2/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (02 20102011)
2.A POSITION 2010/11/30 AT 1200 UTC :
13.3S / 85.7E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 020 SE: 700 SO: 020 NO: 020
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 350 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/12/01 00 UTC: 13.9S/85.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2010/12/01 12 UTC: 14.5S/86.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
36H: 2010/12/02 00 UTC: 15.2S/87.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2010/12/02 12 UTC: 15.9S/89.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2010/12/03 00 UTC: 16.7S/90.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2010/12/03 12 UTC: 17.9S/92.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0+, CI=2.5-
LAST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LLCC IS NOW TOTALY EXPOSED EAST OF DEEP
CONVECTION. DESPITE OF THE PULSE OF CONVECTION OF THE LAST NIGHT, THE
SYSTEME IS SUFFERING OG A TEMPORALY INCREASE OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND DURNAL EFFECT
THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN IN A LOW STEERING FLOW DURING THE NEXT 12/24
HOURS AND MOST GUIDANCE SUGGEST GLOBALLY A SOUTHEASTWARDS DRIFT. AFTER
THAT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE CATCH WITHIN A WESTERLY STEERING FLOW SOUTH OF
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND NORTH OF AN UPPER TO MID LEVEL
MID-LAT TROU
GH. CONSEQUENTLY, IT SHOULD ACCELERATE ON A EASTSOUTHEASTERLY TRACK.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT CHANGED STILL SHOW A 24/36HRS WINDOW FOR
INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE UNDER LIGHT SHEAR. THEN SHEAR
SHOULD BUILD BACK AND A WEAKENING TREND FORECAST.
NNNN


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Re: SIO- TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S

#25 Postby GCANE » Tue Nov 30, 2010 12:38 pm

Looks like this may continue to strengthen in the short-term.

Rain-rate is high and it is moving into an anti-cyclone allowing its PV column to stretch.

Also, a persistent poleward rain-band seems to indicate it is shedding a fundamental Vortex Rossby Wave (VRW) which allows it to spin up.

Tangential wind profile looks good with Radius of Max Winds (RMW) at 140km on the surface allowing good WISHE and continued generation of the VRW.

Core is at 1C above ambient.



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Re: SIO- TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S

#26 Postby GCANE » Tue Nov 30, 2010 12:41 pm

CORRECTION:

Sorry, I need to switch hemisphere's.

I meant to say equatorward rain-band; not poleward.
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#27 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 30, 2010 6:26 pm

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#28 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 30, 2010 7:23 pm

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30/2100 UTC 13.9S 85.5E T2.5/2.5 03S -- Southwest Indian
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#29 Postby supercane » Tue Nov 30, 2010 9:56 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 010044
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/2/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (02 20102011)
2.A POSITION 2010/12/01 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2S / 85.8E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/12/01 12 UTC: 14.9S/86.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
24H: 2010/12/02 00 UTC: 15.6S/87.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
36H: 2010/12/02 12 UTC: 16.3S/89.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2010/12/03 00 UTC: 17.4S/91.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2010/12/03 12 UTC: 18.6S/93.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
72H: 2010/12/04 00 UTC: 20.0S/95.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5-, CI=2.5-
LAST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION HAS BUILT BACK FOR
THE LAST HOURS. THE CENTRE HAS BEEN LOCATED WITH MW AQUA AT 1919Z.
CONVECTION SEEMS GETTING CLOSER THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE DUE TO DECREASING
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (CIMSS 2100Z). CONSEQUENTLY, DT IS FIXED AT 2.5-.
FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, MOST GUIDANCES SUGGEST A SOUTH-EASTWARD DRIFT.
BEYOND, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE CATCH WITHIN A WESTERLY STEERING FLOW SOUTH
OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND NORTH OF AN UPPER TO
MID-LEVEL MID-LAT TROUGH. CONSEQUENTLY, IT SHOULD ACCELERATE ON A
EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK
.
WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION IS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 12/24 HOURS, AS
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE UNDER DECREASING WINDSHEAR. BEYOND, NORTH-WESTERLY
SHEAR SHOULD BUILD BACK UNDER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WINDSHEAR MIGHT VERY TEMPORARLY IMPROVE DIVERGENCE POLEWARD, BUT
BEYOND WEAKEN
VERY RAPIDLY THE SYSTEM ON COOLER AND COOLER SST.

WTXS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 14.4S 85.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 85.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.3S 86.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.0S 87.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 16.6S 88.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.3S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.2S 93.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 21.9S 96.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 85.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) THREE (03S), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 675 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS MOVED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS RE-CONSOLIDATED WITH DEEP
CONVECTION REBUILDING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 301618Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH 25 TO 35 KNOT
WINDS ALONG THE NORTH AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND 15 TO
20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH AND WESTERN PERIPHERY. THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON A 302323Z 85H SSMI
MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTING A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND FMEE. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 03S IS
CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE RIDGE REORIENTS EQUATORWARD. TC 03S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). AFTER TAU 48, TC
03S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST TRACK
LIES CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
010000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z AND 020300Z.//
NNNN
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#30 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 30, 2010 11:36 pm

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Re: SIO- TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S

#31 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Dec 01, 2010 6:13 am

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Looks a lot better than 35 knots
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#32 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Dec 01, 2010 6:14 am

01/0830 UTC 14.9S 85.2E T3.0/3.0 03S -- Southwest Indian

45 knots
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#33 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Dec 01, 2010 6:16 am

ZCZC 543
WTIO30 FMEE 010655
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/2/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (02 20102011)
2.A POSITION 2010/12/01 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8S / 85.4E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 80 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 140
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 660 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/12/01 18 UTC: 15.6S/85.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2010/12/02 06 UTC: 16.5S/86.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2010/12/02 18 UTC: 17.1S/88.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2010/12/03 06 UTC: 18.2S/89.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
60H: 2010/12/03 18 UTC: 19.4S/91.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
72H: 2010/12/04 06 UTC: 19.8S/92.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.5
DUE TO ITS SOUTHWARDS MOTION, SYSTEM IS PENETRATING WITHIN A WEAK
SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
LOW LEVEL INFLOW REMAINS GOOD, THANKS TO THE EQUATORWARD WESTERLIES
AND
THE GOOD TRADE WINDS IN THE SOUTH.
INFRARED PATTERN HAS THEREFORE IMPROVED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT AND SYSTEM SHOWS NOW A CURVED BAND PATTERN WRAPPING AROUND 4 TO
6
TENS.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDERGOING THE
STEERING
FLOW OF THE LOW TO MID LEVELS HIGHS IN ITS NORTH.
IN THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON INTENSIFYING WITHIN
THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND SHOULD REACH THE MODERATE STORM STAGE.
BEYOND, IT IS EXPECTED WEAKENING , UNDERGOING A STRENGTHENING
NORTH-WESTERLY WINDSHEAR IN ITS SOUTH AND MARGINAL OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT
ON COOLER AND COOLER SST.=
NNNN
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#34 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Dec 01, 2010 6:18 am

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 986.7mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.5 3.5
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Re: SIO- TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S

#35 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Wed Dec 01, 2010 6:23 am

My video for this evening, talk on 03S starts near 3:00.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b6NhxZ8imJs[/youtube]
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Re: SIO- TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S

#36 Postby Macrocane » Wed Dec 01, 2010 7:31 am

:eek: 45 knots? not in this world, it's obviously stronger than that, I can't believe it has not been named yet.
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Re: SIO- TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S

#37 Postby GCANE » Wed Dec 01, 2010 7:32 am

Banding is improving with a well defined equatorward VRW.

However, convection is limited due to a boundary-layer inversion at the COC.

JTWC's latest update indicates convection is rebuilding though.

RMW has increased to about 190km.

CIMSS currently has shear at 6.3 m/s.

Polewared outflow channel is not bad.

According to OHC, it looks like it has about 24 hrs of opportunity left to strenghten some.


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Re: SIO- TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S

#38 Postby Crostorm » Wed Dec 01, 2010 8:27 am

ZCZC 455
WTIO20 FMEE 011230
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 01/12/2010 AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 01/12/2010 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ABELE) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3S / 85.9E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES
EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS
FROM THE CENTER.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS
FROM THE CENTER LOCALLY EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM FROM THE CENTER.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2010/12/02 AT 00 UTC:
16.1S / 87.0E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H, VALID 2010/12/02 AT 12 UTC:
16.9S / 88.1E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED WITHIN THE LAST 12 HOURS.
IT SHOULD KEEP ON SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GLOBALLY EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARDS.
NNNN
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Re: SIO- TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S

#39 Postby GCANE » Wed Dec 01, 2010 10:01 am

TRMM showed some Hot Towers firing on the 29th.


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Re: SIO- TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S

#40 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 01, 2010 10:07 am

WTXS31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 15.3S 85.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 85.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.3S 86.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.2S 87.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.1S 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.1S 90.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 21.4S 93.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 86.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ABELE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 675 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS MOVED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH HAS DUG DEEP INTO THE TROPICS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS
BEGINNING TO ADVERSELY AFFECT THE SYSTEM. NEARLY ALL THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DEPLETED AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES ARE NOW EXPOSED ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. IF THIS TROUGH DOES NOT PULL
OUT OF THE TROPICS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, THEN THE SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE MUCH FASTER THAN FORECAST. ANALYSIS OF
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE TROUGH WILL LINGER IN
CONTRAST TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT SUSTAINS (AND INTENSIFIES) THE
TC OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS ALSO CEASED, BUT
THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS STRENGTHENED. THE INITIAL FORECAST
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A HIGH RESOLUTION 010324Z ASCAT PASS THAT
SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED 35 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE BECOME LESS RELIABLE FOR DETERMINING INTENSITY
DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION AND VARY WILDLY AMONG THE
REPORTING AGENCIES. THE FORECAST TRACK STILL FAVORS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS, BUT THE PEAK INTENSITY IS NOW MUCH LOWER TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE TROUGH. UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL ULTIMATELY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BELOW 30 KNOTS BY TAU
72 (ASSUMING THE SYSTEM WEATHERS THE TROUGH IN THE SHORT TERM).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 020300Z AND 021500Z.//
NNNN

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