SIO- TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE)

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Re: SIO- TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE)

#41 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Dec 01, 2010 12:24 pm

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Re: SIO- TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE)

#42 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Dec 01, 2010 1:46 pm

ZCZC 500
WTIO30 FMEE 011251
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/2/20102011
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ABELE)
2.A POSITION 2010/12/01 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3S / 85.9E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 35 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 035 SE: 035 SO: 035 NO: 035
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 660 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/12/02 00 UTC: 16.1S/87.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2010/12/02 12 UTC: 16.9S/88.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2010/12/03 00 UTC: 17.7S/89.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2010/12/03 12 UTC: 18.8S/91.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
60H: 2010/12/04 00 UTC: 20.2S/93.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
72H: 2010/12/04 12 UTC: 21.4S/94.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=3.5-
SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYED WITHIN THE LAST 12 HOURS AND HAS
THEREFORE
BEEN NAMED "ABELE" IN CONCERTATION WITH MAURITIUS METEO SERVICES AT
0900Z.
MICROWAVE TRMM 01/0703Z 85GHZ REVEALS NOW A CLOSED RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND A WARM POINT.
ABELE KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING AND SHOWS NOW IN METEOSAT7 VISIBLE
CHANNEL A
CURVED BAND PATTERN WRAPPING AT ABOUT 10 TENS VERY CLOSED TO SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM STAGE.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDERGOING THE
STEERING
FLOW OF THE LOW TO MID LEVELS HIGHS IN ITS NORTH AND IN ITS EAST.
IN THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON INTENSIFYING WITHIN
THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
BEYOND, IT IS EXPECTED WEAKENING , UNDERGOING A STRENGTHENING
NORTH-WESTERLY WINDSHEAR IN ITS SOUTH AND MARGINAL OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT
ON COOLER AND COOLER SST.=
NNNN
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#43 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Dec 01, 2010 1:47 pm

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#44 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Dec 01, 2010 1:49 pm

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#45 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Dec 01, 2010 1:54 pm

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Nice structure
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#46 Postby Chacor » Wed Dec 01, 2010 1:59 pm

Damn it, this place will never grow out of its JTWC-is-official (hint: it's not) attitude, will it?! The correct thread title should be "Severe Tropical Storm Abele (02R/03S)" and NOT as it is now which focuses wrongly on the JTWC's designation of this storm! It's been how many years since I've been on this board trying to get this point across, and still people don't get it. Come on, the JTWC is only there for DOD interests. It isn't official!
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Re: SIO- TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE)

#47 Postby P.K. » Wed Dec 01, 2010 3:04 pm

02R up to 50kts.

WTIO30 FMEE 011829


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/2/20102011
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ABELE)

2.A POSITION 2010/12/01 AT 1800 UTC :
16.2S / 86.2E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 35 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 070 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 070

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 660 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/12/02 06 UTC: 17.3S/87.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2010/12/02 18 UTC: 18.1S/88.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2010/12/03 06 UTC: 19.2S/89.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2010/12/03 18 UTC: 20.2S/91.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
60H: 2010/12/04 06 UTC: 21.6S/93.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2010/12/04 18 UTC: 22.5S/94.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=3.5+
SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYED WITHIN THE LAST 18 HOURS.
ABELE SHOWS NOW IN METEOSAT7 INFRA-RED CHANNEL A TEMPORALY EYE
PATTERN.

SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDERGOING THE STEERING
FLOW OF THE LOW TO MID LEVELS HIGHS IN ITS NORTH AND IN ITS EAST.
IN THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON INTENSIFYING WITHIN
THE
VERY NEXT HOURS, BUT LOOKS LIKE VERY CLOSE TO ITS MAXIMUM OF
INTENSITY.
BEYOND, IT IS EXPECTED WEAKENING , UNDERGOING A STRENGTHENING
NORTH-WESTERLY WINDSHEAR IN ITS SOUTH AND MARGINAL OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT
ON COOLER AND COOLER SST.=
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Re: Severe Tropical Storm Abele (03S)

#48 Postby Grifforzer » Wed Dec 01, 2010 3:53 pm

I wonder why Meteo France don't make tracking maps of cyclones this season so far. Seems all they do now is warnings for systems.
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Re: SIO- TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE)

#49 Postby P.K. » Wed Dec 01, 2010 4:04 pm

Their new page is flash based (Which makes it harder to post the track maps to here) but there don't seem to be any wind radii on the track maps as before.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/index.html
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#50 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Dec 01, 2010 9:14 pm

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Latest 45kts-989mb
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#51 Postby supercane » Wed Dec 01, 2010 9:16 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 020041
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/2/20102011
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ABELE)
2.A POSITION 2010/12/02 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3S / 86.4E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /W 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 070 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 070
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/12/02 12 UTC: 17.1S/87.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
24H: 2010/12/03 00 UTC: 17.9S/88.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
36H: 2010/12/03 12 UTC: 19.1S/90.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2010/12/04 00 UTC: 20.4S/91.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2010/12/04 12 UTC: 21.1S/93.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2010/12/05 00 UTC: 21.8S/94.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYED WITHIN THE LAST 18 HOURS.
ABELE SEEMS TO HAVE REACH ITS MAXIMUM OF INTENSITY, AND BEGIN TO UNDERGO
A UPPER LEVEL WEST NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDERGOING THE STEERING
FLOW OF THE LOW TO MID LEVELS HIGHS IN ITS NORTH AND IN ITS EAST.
IT IS EXPECTED WEAKENING, UNDERGOING A STRENGTHENING WEST NORTH-WESTERLY
WINDSHEAR IN ITS SOUTH AND MARGINAL OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ON COOLER AND
COOLER SST.
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#52 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Dec 01, 2010 9:16 pm

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01/2030 UTC 16.0S 86.5E T3.5/3.5 ABELE -- Southwest Indian

55 knots
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#53 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Dec 01, 2010 9:24 pm

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#54 Postby supercane » Wed Dec 01, 2010 9:27 pm

WTXS31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 86.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 86.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 16.7S 87.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.5S 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.5S 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.7S 92.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 22.7S 95.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 87.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 03S (ABELE), CURRENTLY LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHARP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE SYSTEM,
ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. A STACK OF THE 012302Z
37GHZ AND 85GHZ SSMI IMAGERY SHOWS THE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO TILT
THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY EASTWARD, INDICATING THE EARLY STAGE OF VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR. THE 37GHZ PASS ALSO SHOWS ABUNDANT DEEP CONVECTION
CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WHICH
ARE CURRENTLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, DECLINE SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG
TRACK BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES SOUTH LATITUDE. THE COOLING WATERS
COUPLED WITH INCREASING WINDSHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH WILL SEVERELY DEGRADE THE SYSTEM BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 36.
ALTHOUGH DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT ON INTENSITY,
THERE EXISTS SIGNIFICANT DISPARITY ON BOTH TRACK AND SPEED. NOGAPS
AND UKMO TURN THE STORM SHARPLY SOUTHWESTWARD AT TAU 72 WHILE ALL
OTHERS MAINTAIN SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT. THIS TURN DRASTICALLY SLOWS
CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 72. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 48, AND THEN IS
BASED ON A SLIGHTLY ACCELERATING RATE OF MOVEMENT ALONG TRACK
THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z AND 030300Z.
//
NNNN
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#55 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Dec 01, 2010 9:59 pm

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nice image
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#56 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Wed Dec 01, 2010 10:54 pm

It amazes me at how much information we have now a days on a storm thousands of miles away from any Landmass. ( Or human if they are smart and know to go around this.)
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Re: SIO- TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE)

#57 Postby Crostorm » Wed Dec 01, 2010 11:55 pm

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#58 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 02, 2010 12:03 am

:uarrow: very close or at hurricane intensity. I would say 55-65 knots.
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Re:

#59 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 02, 2010 12:04 am

RobWESTPACWX wrote:It amazes me at how much information we have now a days on a storm thousands of miles away from any Landmass. ( Or human if they are smart and know to go around this.)


It's really impressive. Today it's difficult to miss a system!
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#60 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 02, 2010 5:49 am

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WTXS31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 16.9S 87.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 87.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.9S 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.8S 89.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 20.0S 91.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 21.3S 92.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 23.8S 94.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 87.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE), CURRENTLY LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 610 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL BANDING AND A 020211Z
SSMIS 91H MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A MICROWAVE EYE. THERE WAS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON MSI AND PREVIOUS
MICROWAVE EYES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND
FMEE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS INDICATING THE
SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED WITHIN THE PAST 6 HOURS MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT AND
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM
IS DIGGING EQUATORWARD AND CAUSING SUBSIDENCE IN THIS REGION. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. TC 03S IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE
TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, TC ABELE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU
72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE,
THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
022100Z AND 030900Z.//
NNNN
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