SIO- TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE)

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#61 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 02, 2010 5:51 am

Image

Latest
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#62 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 02, 2010 5:56 am

02/0830 UTC 16.9S 87.9E T4.5/4.5 ABELE -- Southwest Indian

wow, 75 knots
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#63 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 02, 2010 5:56 am

ZCZC 602
WTIO30 FMEE 020652
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/2/20102011
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ABELE)
2.A POSITION 2010/12/02 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6S / 87.4E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 18 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 200 SO: 180 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 150
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1500
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/12/02 18 UTC: 17.5S/88.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2010/12/03 06 UTC: 18.7S/90.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2010/12/03 18 UTC: 20.1S/91.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
48H: 2010/12/04 06 UTC: 21.8S/92.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2010/12/04 18 UTC: 23.4S/93.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2010/12/05 06 UTC: 23.8S/94.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0-
DT=4.0 WITH 1.1O ON LOG 10 SPIRAL, MET=3.5 AND PT=4.0. FT BASED ON
DT.
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGHEST LATEST SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATE
RANGES FROM 3.5 (PGTW) TO 4.0 (FMEE AND KNES). THIS IS ALSO
CONSISTENT
WITH LATEST ADT ESTIMATE OF 59 KT (1 MIN WIND).
SSMIS PASS OF 0211Z SHOW A WELL DEFINED EYE PATTERN ON 91 GHZ
IMAGERY.
LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOW VERY COLD CLOUDS TOP OVER THE CENTER WITH
BRIGHTNESS TEMP UP TO -85C.
ABELE SHOULD NOW BE NEAR ITS MAX INTENSITY ... IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT
COULD STRENGHEN A LITTLE BIT TODAY AND BE CLOSE TO THE SEVERE STORM /
HURRICANE BORDER LINE ...
A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED SHORTLY AS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN
A STRONGER WESTNORTHWESTERLYSHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MARGINAL OCEANIC
HEAT
CONTENT.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDERGOING THE STEERING
FLOW OF THE LOW TO MID LEVELS HIGHS IN ITS NORTH AND IN ITS EAST.=
NNNN
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#64 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 02, 2010 6:21 am

Image

Image

very impressive, certainly of hurricane intensity
0 likes   

GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5270
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: SIO- TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE)

#65 Postby GCANE » Thu Dec 02, 2010 6:50 am

:uarrow:

I was just going to say the same thing - impressive development.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/flash-avn.html

Outflow really improved dramatically.

Microwave is showing a nearly closed off eyewall.

IMHO the setup was in place about 48 hrs ago indicated by the equatorward rainband.

This indicated an increasing PV structure which results in increasing surface wind speeds.

However, convection at that time was choked off due to a boundary-layer inversion.

Once the inversion was broken, convection flared and allowed latent heating of the upper troposphere to nicely organize a warm core.

With now moderate rain-rate; I think it may be close to its peak intensity.

Also, the anti-cyclone has now gotten behind it.

So, it will now be travelling into a dropping tropopause height which will compress its PV column and spin it down.

Core at 3C.

If it had a little more hot water to work with, this could have ramped up to a major.




Image

Image

Image

Image

Image
0 likes   

GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5270
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: SIO- TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE)

#66 Postby GCANE » Thu Dec 02, 2010 7:03 am

0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re: SIO- TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE)

#67 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 02, 2010 7:29 am

Image

Latest
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#68 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 02, 2010 7:39 am

Image

Oops! The advisory at the left is available at the NRL site and the one to the right at the JTWC site!
0 likes   

RobWESTPACWX
WestPACMet
WestPACMet
Posts: 1615
Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
Location: Tokyo, Japan
Contact:

#69 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Thu Dec 02, 2010 7:59 am

huh? Thats odd.
0 likes   
Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM

GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5270
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: SIO- TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE)

#70 Postby GCANE » Thu Dec 02, 2010 8:32 am

It looks like its ITCZ infeed of moist boundary-layer air is now cutoff.

Should begin to ramp down soon.


Image
0 likes   

GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5270
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: SIO- TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE)

#71 Postby GCANE » Thu Dec 02, 2010 8:39 am

I think this is a great illustration showing how a fundamental Vortex Rossby Wave aids in the development of a TC.

Notice that once the equatorward rainband dissipates, this thing explodes.


Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Macrocane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4207
Age: 29
Joined: Sun May 24, 2009 5:35 pm
Location: El Salvador

Re: SIO- TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE)

#72 Postby Macrocane » Thu Dec 02, 2010 8:54 am

The JTWC and the official RSMC have done with Abele like IMD does with the North Indian cyclones a complete underestimation of the intenisty, I believe that in the Atlantic or North Pacific basins this would be considered a 75-80 kt hurricane/typhoon.
0 likes   

Grifforzer
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 377
Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 11:27 pm

#73 Postby Grifforzer » Thu Dec 02, 2010 9:51 am

70 knots (10 min) from METEO FRANCE

Link: http://www.webcitation.org/5ufyBzRaY

Tropical Cyclone Abele (973 hPa) located at 17.2S 88.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24H

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
===============
35 NM from the center extending up to 40 NM in the southern semi-circle and up to 45 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Gale-Force Winds
======================
60 NM radius from the center extending 95 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale-Force Winds
=====================
80 NM radius from the center extending up to 110 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle and up to 130 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 18.1S 90.0E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 19.5S 91.8E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 23.2S 94.7E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
72 HRS: 24.8S 96.6E - 30 knots (Depression Extratropicale)

Additional Information
======================

3 hourly average of T number with eye pattern on infrared gives a DT at 4.5-.. 65 knot winds, coherent with an estimate at 4.5 from KNES and PGTW. A good AMSU intensity estimate at 0801 UTC gave 82 knots (1 min).. 75 knots (10 min). The current intensity of 70 knots is a blend of the two previous estimates.

As the system moves in the same direction of the shear, storm relative shear is weaker than the current 20 knots northwesterly shear. Probably around 10 knots (subtract of the storm motion). Wave vapor loop shows excellent outflow in all quadrants especially in the southeastern quadrant where the system interacts with a mid-latitude jet. With still some favorable sea surface temperatures (26-27C), ABELE manages to take the best from its environmental conditions but system is currently leaving the warm waters towards a significantly cooler waters in 24 hours so a weakening trend is expected shortly as he system should be embedded within a stronger west northwesterly shear associated with a marginal oceanic heat content.

Models are in good agreement on the track forecast mainly for the next 2 days. After that and until the end of the forecast period there is some spread as the system should be a remnant low by that time. Extratropical transition is expected near 36-48 hours.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#74 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 02, 2010 10:13 am

Image

Latest 70kts-970mb
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#75 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 02, 2010 10:30 am

NRL amended the 07 advisory to change the intensity from 55 to 60 knots.

Code: Select all

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE) WARNING NR 007A AMENDED
WTXS31 PGTW 020900 AMD
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE) WARNING NR 007A AMENDED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020600Z --- NEAR 16.9S 87.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 87.6E
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10231
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#76 Postby Chacor » Thu Dec 02, 2010 11:21 am

Here's the official MeteoFrance advisory:

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/2/20102011
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (ABELE)

2.A POSITION 2010/12/02 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2S / 88.6E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 973 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 18 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 200 SO: 175 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 150 SO: 135 NO: 115

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1570 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/12/03 00 UTC: 18.1S/90.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2010/12/03 12 UTC: 19.5S/91.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2010/12/04 00 UTC: 21.2S/93.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2010/12/04 12 UTC: 23.2S/94.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2010/12/05 00 UTC: 24.6S/95.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2010/12/05 12 UTC: 24.8S/96.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.5-

3 HOURLY AVERAGED OF T NUM WITH EYE PATTERN ON IR IMAGERY GIVES A DT AT 4.5- ... 65 KT WIND, COHERENT WITH AN ESTIMATE AT 4.5 FROM KNES AND PGTW . A GOOD AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 0801 UTC GAVE 82 KT WINDS (1 MIN ) ... 75 KT (10 MIN). THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS A BLEND OF THE TWO PREVIOUS ESTIMATE.

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN THE SAME DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR, STORM RELATIVE SHEAR IS WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT 20 KT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, PROBABLY AROUND 10 KT (SUBSTRACT OF THE STORM MOTION).
WV LOOP SHOW EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT WHERE THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A MID-LAT JET. WITH STILL SOME FAVOURABLE SST (26-27C), ABELE MANAGES TO TAKE THE BEST FROM ITS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.

BUT .... SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LEAVING THE WARM WATERS TOWARDS SIGNIFICATIVELY COOLER WATERS (IN 24 HOURS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OVER 25C SST ...) ... SO AGAIN ... A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED SHORTLY AS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONGER WESTNORTHWESTERLYSHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MARGINAL OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT.


MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK FORECAST MAINLY FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS. AFTER THAT AND TIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (J+5), THERE IS SOME SPREAD, AS THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE A REMNANT LOW BY THAT TIME. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED NEAR TAU 36H-48H
Last edited by Chacor on Thu Dec 02, 2010 11:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#77 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 02, 2010 11:22 am

Image

weakening
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#78 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 02, 2010 4:19 pm

WTXS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 17.6S 89.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 89.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 19.1S 91.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 20.9S 92.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 22.5S 94.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE), CURRENTLY LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSTION AND INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON RECENT DVORAK SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW,
KNES, AND FMEE. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT TC
03S HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD IS
STRETCHING SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITDUE
TROUGH, SUGGESTING AN IMMINENT INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC
03S IS NOW TRACKING POLEWARD IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE APPROACHING
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. GENERALY SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND CARRY TC 03S INTO A ZONE
OF RAPIDLY INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, UNFAVORABLY LOW
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INDUCED BY THE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS WILL INDUCE RAPID
WEAKENING, WITH FULL DISSIPATION BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS OCCURRING BY TAU 36. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF A STRONG
STEERING FLOW PATTERN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS
17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z AND 032100Z.//
NNNN


Image
0 likes   

Grifforzer
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 377
Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 11:27 pm

#79 Postby Grifforzer » Thu Dec 02, 2010 4:39 pm

Weakening..

Link: http://www.webcitation.org/5ugSdXbsQ (Be sure to check the link for more information)

Tropical Cyclone Abele (975 hPa) located at 17.6S 89.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.5/W0.5/6H

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
===============
35 NM from the center extending up to 40 NM in the southern semi-circle and up to 45 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Gale-Force Winds
======================
60 NM radius from the center extending 95 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale-Force Winds
=====================
80 NM radius from the center extending up to 120 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle and up to 130 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 18.7S 91.0E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 20.4S 92.8E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
48 HRS: 24.0S 95.0E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 24.9S 97.3E - 25 knots (Depression Extratropicale)

On sea surface temperatures lower than 26C, system is now suffering due to lack of oceanic heat content. System is expected to keep on weakening as it undergoes an increasing westerly wind shear associated with marginal energetic potential.

Models are in good agreement on the track forecast mainly for the next 2 days. After that and until the end of forecast period, there is some spread as the system should be a remnant low by that time.

Extratropical transition is expected to be ended on and after 60 hours.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#80 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 02, 2010 6:25 pm

Image

Latest
0 likes   


Return to “2010”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest