SIO- TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE)

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HURAKAN
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#81 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 02, 2010 8:05 pm

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#82 Postby supercane » Thu Dec 02, 2010 8:25 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 030008
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/2/20102011
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ABELE)
2.A POSITION 2010/12/03 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4S / 90.2E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND NINETY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /W 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 200 SO: 220 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 110
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/12/03 12 UTC: 20.2S/92.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
24H: 2010/12/04 00 UTC: 21.8S/93.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2010/12/04 12 UTC: 23.3S/94.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2010/12/05 00 UTC: 24.4S/95.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2010/12/05 12 UTC: 24.7S/96.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2010/12/06 00 UTC: 24.4S/98.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0 AND CI=3.5
NORTHWESTERLY WINDHSEAR IS NOW OBVIOUS ON MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING AS IT UNDERGOES AN INCREASING
WESTERLY WINDSHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BE ENDED ON AND AFTER TAU 60H.
THIS SYSTEM HAS STILL CROSS THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE AREA OF
RESPONSABILITY OF THE RSMC - LA REUNION.
NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 0600Z BY THE
AUSRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTER OF PERTH
(AXAU01).
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#83 Postby Grifforzer » Fri Dec 03, 2010 2:39 am

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth

At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Abele was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude nineteen decimal one south (19.1S)
longitude ninety one decimal five east (91.5E)
Recent movement : southeast at 12 knots
Maximum winds : 45 knots
Central pressure: 990 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 80 nautical miles of the centre until 1200 UTC 3 December then within 90
nautical miles of the centre in the southern semicircle.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 45 knots near the centre. From 1800 UTC 03 December maximum
winds to 30 knots in the northern semicircle reaching 30/40 knots in the
southern semicircle.

Clockwise winds above 34 knots within 80 nautical miles of centre until 1200
UTC 3 December then winds 30/40 knots in the southern semicircle with rough to
very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 03 December: Within 60 nautical miles of 20.7 south 93.4 east
Central pressure 995 hPa.
Winds to 30/40 knots in the southern semicircle
At 0600 UTC 04 December: Within 90 nautical miles of 22.2 south 94.5 east
Central pressure 995 hPa.
Winds to 25/35 knots in the southern semicircle

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 03 December 2010.
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Re: SIO- TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE)

#84 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Fri Dec 03, 2010 3:31 am

Around 3:40 I talk about this storm, as always did a little shout out for storm 2k. Defiantly a ton of good info here on this storm.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewZjMxoer6M[/youtube]
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Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM

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#85 Postby Chacor » Fri Dec 03, 2010 7:37 am

06z technical bulletin from Perth:

AXAU01 APRF 030735
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0735 UTC 03/12/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone Abele
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 19.1S
Longitude: 91.5E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [125 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [22 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/3.0/W1.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 03/1800: 20.7S 93.4E: 060 [110]: 035 [065]: 995
+24: 04/0600: 22.2S 94.5E: 090 [165]: 035 [065]: 995
+36: 04/1800: 23.7S 95.6E: 120 [225]: 030 [055]: 998
+48: 05/0600: 24.4S 96.6E: 155 [285]: 030 [055]: 998
+60: 05/1800: 24.4S 97.9E: 200 [375]: 030 [055]: 998
+72: 06/0600: 24.5S 98.7E: 250 [465]: 030 [055]: 998
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Abele has weakened over the past 24 hours. Recent visible
satellite imagery reveals an exposed low level circulation centre with deep
convection confined to southeast quadrant. This is in response to increasing
W/NW shear. UW-CIMSS indicates WNW shear of about 25 knots at 030600UTC.

Dvorak: Based on a shear pattern, centre approximately 0.5 degree from edge of
convection so DT=2.5. MET is 2.5 based on W+ trend with PAT unchanged at 2.5. So
FT is 2.5 and CI is 3.0.

ASCAT pass at 030241 UTC showed winds to 45 knots.

Abele is over unfavourable SSTs of 24 to 26 degrees and together with the
increasing shear the system will continue to weaken. Gales are likely to be
confined to the southern semicircle after 031800 UTC.

Abele is being steered by an upper level trough to the southwest. General
southeast motion should continue in the short term. In the longer term the
remnants are likely to be steered to the west under the influence of a ridge of
high pressure.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 03/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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Re: SIO- TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE)

#86 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 03, 2010 8:11 am

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#87 Postby Chacor » Fri Dec 03, 2010 10:12 am

AXAU01 APRF 031241
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1240 UTC 03/12/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone Abele
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 19.9S
Longitude: 92.9E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [124 deg]
Speed of Movement: 14 knots [26 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 992 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/3.0/W2.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 250 nm [465 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 04/0000: 21.7S 94.4E: 060 [110]: 035 [065]: 995
+24: 04/1200: 23.2S 95.6E: 090 [165]: 035 [065]: 995
+36: 05/0000: 24.3S 96.8E: 120 [225]: 030 [055]: 995
+48: 05/1200: 24.8S 98.4E: 155 [285]: 030 [055]: 995
+60: 06/0000: 24.9S 100.1E: 200 [375]: 025 [045]: 998
+72: 06/1200: 25.1S 102.5E: 250 [465]: 020 [035]: 1002
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Abele has weakened significantly over the past 24 hours as it
has encountered cooler waters and increasing vertical shear. The LLCC has
remained exposed during the day with deep convection confined to southeast
quadrant. UW-CIMSS indicates WNW shear of about 25 knots at 030600UTC, with a
strong gradient of shear to the south of the LLCC. The system has a translation
speed of 14 knots so system relative shear will be a little less and winds to
the left of track will be enhanced.

Dvorak: Based on a shear pattern, centre consistently 0.5-0.75 degree from edge
of convection so DT=2.5. LLCC continues to be well defined though beginning to
become less circular. MET is 2.5 based on W+ trend with PAT unchanged at 2.5. So
FT is 2.5. CI is held at 3.0.

ASCAT pass at 030241 UTC showed winds to 45 knots.

Abele is over unfavourable SSTs of 24 to 26 degrees and together with the
increasing shear the system will continue to weaken. Gales are likely to be
confined to the southern semicircle after 040000 UTC.

Abele is being steered by a level trough to the southwest. General southeast
motion should continue until the system has become very weak.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 03/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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#88 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 03, 2010 1:24 pm

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#89 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 03, 2010 8:28 pm

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Re: SIO- TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE)

#90 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 03, 2010 8:29 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0122 UTC 04/12/2010
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Abele
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 22.0S
Longitude: 93.9E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [152 deg]
Speed of Movement: 11 knots [20 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: N/A
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/2.0/W+1.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 250 nm [465 km]
Storm Depth: Shallow
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 04/1200: 23.7S 94.8E: 060 [110]: 030 [055]: 1000
+24: 05/0000: 24.5S 95.9E: 100 [185]: 030 [055]: 1000
+36: 05/1200: 25.0S 97.6E: 130 [240]: 030 [055]: 1002
+48: 06/0000: 25.3S 99.2E: 160 [295]: 030 [055]: 1002
+60: 06/1200: 25.4S 102.0E: 200 [370]: 025 [045]: 1004
+72: 07/0000: 24.5S 102.6E: 250 [465]: 025 [045]: 1004
REMARKS:
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Abele has continued to weaken with cooler waters and
increasing vertical shear. The LLCC remains exposed and there is now very little
deep convection. Latest visible imagery suggests the system centre is slightly
NW of the official fix position. UW-CIMSS indicated WNW shear of over 40 knots
[22m/s] knots at 040000UTC.

Dvorak: Shear pattern, centre greater than 1.25 degree from any cold cloud and
insufficient deep convection to classify as an overcast. DT not assigned . MET
is 1.5 based on W+ trend FT is 1.5. CI is 2.0.

ASCAT pass at 031511 UTC showed winds to 40 knots, mostly within the southern
semicircle but also in a small area of the NE quadrant. Since then the system
translation speed has decreased and the system has continued to weaken. Final
intensity assessment is that gales are likely to be confined to southern
quadrants, hence not meeting the TC definition [gales wrapping >50% around the
system centre]

The system will remain over cold waters and under an environment of high shear
and no intensification is possible. The remnant low is likely to continue to
move toward the south east over the next 48 hours.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system.
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