SPO: Invest 96P

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wyq614
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SPO: Invest 96P

#1 Postby wyq614 » Thu Nov 25, 2010 4:05 am

Image

15S 165E as of 06UTC. EC deepens it while moves it in a southeasterly direction.
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Crostorm
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Re: SPO: Invest 96P

#2 Postby Crostorm » Fri Nov 26, 2010 6:11 pm

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Nov 26/1956 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD01F [1003HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 16.1S 171.4E AT
261800 UTC MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR
BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS.
SST AROUND 30 DEGREE CELSIUS.

CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. ORGANISATION
HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS TO 500HPA. 01F LIES TO THE WEST OF AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION
AND ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH IN A LOW TO MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND ARE MOVING IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.


NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT DISTURNBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.
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Re: SPO: Invest 96P

#3 Postby Alacane2 » Sat Nov 27, 2010 9:36 am

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Nov 27/1349 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD01F [1003HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 16.9S 174.2E AT
271200 UTC MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 07 KNOTS. POSITION POOR
BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREE CELSIUS.

CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED IN
THE LAST 12 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FROM SURFACE TO 500HPA.
DEPRESSION 01F LIES IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR AND UNDER AN
UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND ARE SLOWLY MOVING IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL BE ISSUED AT OR
AROUND 272000 UTC.
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Re: SPO: Tropical Depression 01F 2010-11

#4 Postby Reesie » Sat Nov 27, 2010 12:55 pm

For some reason i can see Nadi designating 01F as Vania but i can not see the JTWC issuing warnings on this TC.
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Re: SPO: Invest 96P

#5 Postby Crostorm » Sun Nov 28, 2010 1:25 am

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Nov 28/0232 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD01F CENTRE 1000HPA RE-LOCATED NEAR 17.7S 173.6E
AT 280000 UTC MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR
BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREE CELSIUS.

CONVECTION COOLED ABOUT LLCC PAST 12 HOURS. OVERALL ORGANISATION
SLIGHTLY INCREASED PAST 6 HOURS. DEPRESSION 01F LIES TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF AN UPPER OUTFLOW CENTRE UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW. CIMSS INDICATES
DECREASING SHEAR ALONG PROJECTED PATH. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED
EAST-SOUTHEAST BY DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. DRY AIR EVIDENT
ON WATER VAPOUR CHANNEL JUST TO WEST.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND ARE MOVING IT
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL BE ISSUED AT OR
AROUND 280830 UTC.
Image
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