Arabian sea:Invest 93A

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Arabian sea:Invest 93A

#1 Postby Crostorm » Wed Dec 01, 2010 8:39 am

BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH ARABIAN SEA SOUTH OF LAT 11.0N EAST OF LONG 57.0E (.)

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Re: Arabian sea:Invest 93A

#2 Postby Grifforzer » Wed Dec 01, 2010 3:48 pm

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India Meteorological Department Numerical Weather Prediction Model for 93A.INVEST developing in the Arabian Sea.
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#3 Postby Crostorm » Wed Dec 01, 2010 11:58 pm

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.3N 63.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 670 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA ISLAND. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND DEEPENING
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 011255Z 91 GHZ SSMIS
IMAGE SHOWS WEAK CONVERGENT BANDING IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEEPENING
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC
IS DRIFTING WESTWARD UNDER THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS ESTIMATED AT 10-20
KTS AND WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG TRACK ARE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (26-28C). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
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#4 Postby wyq614 » Thu Dec 02, 2010 4:21 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.3N 63.9E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 61.9E, APPROXIMATELY 560 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF SOCOTRA ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
020347Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION.
THE LLCC IS LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER,
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT INDICATE
DRY AIR ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
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#5 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Thu Dec 02, 2010 5:07 am

I was looking at this earlier today, thought there was a spin there.
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#6 Postby wyq614 » Thu Dec 02, 2010 7:59 am

Well, SSD has given it a T1.5
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 02, 2010 8:03 am

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#8 Postby Grifforzer » Thu Dec 02, 2010 10:00 am

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
02 December 2010, 11:30 IST

Broken low/medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection over southeast Arabian Sea east of 67.0E and between 5.0N to 11.0N and 55.0E to 67.0E.
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Re: Arabian sea:Invest 93A

#9 Postby GCANE » Thu Dec 02, 2010 10:34 am

This could be a significant landfall in the state of Gujarat.

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/jsloop.cgi?d ... perimental FIM Model Fields&maxFcstLen=240&resizePlot=1&domain=fim&wjet=1


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Re: Arabian sea:Invest 93A

#10 Postby GCANE » Thu Dec 02, 2010 11:50 am

Pretty good UL Jet running along 20N.

Could tap into it within 48 hrs and create an enhanced poleward outflow channel.

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#11 Postby Grifforzer » Thu Dec 02, 2010 4:57 pm

http://gwydir.demon.co.uk/advisories/AL ... 021800.pdf

India Meteorological Department
All India Daily Weather Report
02 December 2010 17:30 IST

♦ A low pressure area has formed over southwest and adjoining southeast Arabian sea.It is likely to move west northwestwards.
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#12 Postby Grifforzer » Fri Dec 03, 2010 2:25 am

Dvorak 1.0 from IMD

Vortex over south Arabian Sea center within a half a degree of 8.0N 61.0E. Dvorak intensity T1.0. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection over south Arabian Sea between 5.0N to 13.0N and 57.0E to 64.5E.

Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea
==============================

Broken intense to very intense convection over south Bay of Bengal. Broken low/medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection over east central south Bay of Bengal and extreme south Andaman Sea. Broken low/medium clouds with embedded isolated weak to moderate convection over rest south Andaman Sea and south Tenasserim coast.

Arabian Sea
=============

Broken low/medium clouds with embedded isolated moderate to intense convection over rest south Arabian Sea, east central Arabian Sea between 12.0N to 15.0N and east of 71.0E.
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Re: Arabian sea:Invest 93A

#13 Postby Crostorm » Fri Dec 03, 2010 2:53 am

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 61.3E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 62.8E, APPROXIMATELY 740 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO
THE EAST OF ITS PREVIOUS POSITION. A 021911Z 37GHZ TRMM IMAGE, A
PARTIAL 021723Z ASCAT PASS, AND RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS STALLED WITHIN
THE MONSOON TROUGH RATHER THAN TRACKING WESTWARD WITH THE PRIMARY
AREA OF CONVECTION AS ANALYSIS DATA PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED. THE
ELONGATED AND ILL-DEFINED LLCC LIES JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF VERY FAVORABLE WESTWARD AND
POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOW (LESS THAN 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE EASTWARD RELOCATION OF THE LLCC PLACES THE
SYSTEM IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
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