94B INVEST

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94B INVEST

#1 Postby Grifforzer » Thu Dec 02, 2010 4:46 pm

Invest 94B near 4.7N 89.7E

http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/tc10/IO/94B.IN ... .100pc.jpg

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
02 December 2010 11:30 IST

Broken low/medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection over south Bay of Bengal, adjoining west central Bay of Bengal, and southwest Andaman Sea.

Broken low/medium clouds with embedded isolated weak to moderate convection over rest of south Andaman Sea.
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#2 Postby Grifforzer » Fri Dec 03, 2010 2:24 am

ABIO10 PGTW 022300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/022300Z-031800ZDEC2010//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021951ZDEC2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.7N 89.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 600 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES A PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN A MONSOON TROUGH. THE LLCC LIES SLIGHTLY
EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FAVOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, EXCEEDING 28C ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
BENGAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
BECAUSE THE LLCC OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS WEAK AND JUST BEGINNING TO
CONSOLIDATE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
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Re: 94B INVEST

#3 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 06, 2010 7:15 am

Image

window of development about to close
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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 06, 2010 7:15 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.8N
81.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 82.9E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) HAS LOOPED BACK TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST. CONVECTION
REMAINS UNORGANIZED AND CONTINUES TO FLARE ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE DISTURBANCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (25 TO 30 KNOTS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE OVERALL LACK OF CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION AND RELATIVELY HIGH VWS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 06, 2010 11:53 am

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#6 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 06, 2010 11:35 pm

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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 06, 2010 11:36 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 82.9E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 84.0E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 061407Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE THE DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
BASED ON THE SHEARED CONVECTION AND RELATIVELY HIGH VWS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
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#8 Postby Grifforzer » Tue Dec 07, 2010 3:40 am

BOB 06/2010/01 Dated: 07.12.2010

Time of issue:1200 hours IST

Sub: Depression over Westcentral Bay of Bengal

Latest satellite imagery and synoptic observations indicate that a depression has formed over westcentral Bay of Bengal and it lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of 7th December 2010 near lat. 14.00N and long. 82.00E about 230 km southeast of Kavali, 270 km south-southeast of Machlipatnam and 450 km south-southwest of Vishakhapatnam. It. will move northwestwards and cross south Andhra Pradesh coast between Nellore and Ongole near Kavali by today night.

Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over coastal Andhra Pradesh and isolated heavy falls over Rayalseema, north coastal Tamil Nadu during next 48 hours. Isolated heavy rainfall would also occur during next 24 hours over south coastal Orissa from 8th onwards.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail along and off north Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 48 hours. Sea conditions will be rough to very rough along and off, these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.


Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off north Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coasts.

Next bulletin will be issued at 1430 hrs IST of 7th December, 2010.
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Re: 94B INVEST

#9 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 07, 2010 7:41 am

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#10 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 07, 2010 8:46 am

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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 07, 2010 10:10 am

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#12 Postby Grifforzer » Tue Dec 07, 2010 3:43 pm

THE DEPRESSION OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 12 UTC OF 7TH DECEMBER 2010 NEAR LAT. 15.00N AND LONG 81.50 E, ABOUT 150 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ONGOLE (43221), 150 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MACHILLIPATNAM (43185) AND 350 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF VISHAKHAPATNAM (43149). IT WOULD MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH COAST BETWEEN ONGOLE AND MACHILLIPATNAM BY TOMORROW MORNING.


SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1000 HPA.


SATELLITE IMAGERY INDDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS SHEAR PATTERN. INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 13.00N AND 17.00N AND WEST OF LONGITUDE 83.00 E. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -700C IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.


THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS ANDHRA PRADESH COAST.


REMARKS


VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25 KTS). 24 HOUR TENDENCY OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NEGATIVE (-5 TO -10 KTS) NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL IS 27-290C. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL IS 40-50 KJ/CM2, WHICH IS UNFAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE NORTH OF TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 140N AT 200 HPA LEVEL.
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#13 Postby Grifforzer » Tue Dec 07, 2010 11:40 pm

BOB 06/2010/05 Dated: 08.12.2010

Time of issue: 0830 hours IST

Sub: Depression over Andhra Pradesh

The depression over westcentral Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards, crossed Andhra Pradesh coast near Bapatla in the early morning of today and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of 8th December 2010, about 50 km northwest of Bapatla, Andhra Pradesh (near lat. 16.00N and long. 80.00E). It would move northwestwards for some more time, then north-northwestwards and weaken gradually.

Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places over north coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 24 hours and at many places with isolated heavy falls over Telengana, Chhattisgarh and Orissa during next 48 hours.

Squally winds speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph continue to prevail along and off Andhra Pradesh coast during next 12 hours.

Sea conditions will be rough along and off Andhra Pradesh coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

Next bulletin will be issued at 1130 hrs IST of 8th December, 2010.
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