AUS (SEIO): Tropical Low (91S TCFA)

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Chacor
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AUS (SEIO): Tropical Low (91S TCFA)

#1 Postby Chacor » Sun Dec 12, 2010 3:19 am

IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of
Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Sunday 12 December 2010

valid until the end of Wednesday CST.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
There are no significant tropical lows in the region at present. The monsoon
trough is developing near the north coast of the Top End and a low pressure
system is expected to form in the Arafura Sea early next week.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the region on:
Monday: Very low,
Tuesday: Low,
Wednesday: Low.

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day...
Very low: less than 5%, Low: 5% to 20%, Moderate: 20% to 50%, High: Over 50%.


The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between
125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around
Timor [northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E].

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Last edited by Chacor on Wed Dec 15, 2010 9:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby Chacor » Wed Dec 15, 2010 1:53 am

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00pm WST on Wednesday the 15th of December 2010
Valid until midnight WST Saturday


Existing Cyclones in the Western region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
At midday WST a tropical low was located near 20S 110E, about 480 kilometres
west northwest of Exmouth, within an active monsoon trough. Gales are possible
to the north and south of the monsoon trough, please refer to the latest
Shipping Warnings for more details [IDW21100, IDW21200]. The low may develop
into a tropical cyclone during the next 3 days, although it is more likely to
remain a large monsoonal low with strong to gale force winds well away from the
centre.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Thursday :Moderate
Friday :Moderate
Saturday :Moderate


Another weak tropical low may develop off the Kimberley coast on Thursday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Thursday :Low
Friday :Low
Saturday :Low

There are no other significant lows expected in the region during the next three
days.


NOTES: Development Potential is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of Latitude 10S.
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Re: AUS (SEIO): Tropical Low (INVEST 91S)

#3 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Wed Dec 15, 2010 5:09 am

Hey Chacor, this storm really is a large one, lots of convection in it, but not really organized I do say,

Anyhow if you forward this video to 3:50 I talk about the storm.......

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nzhYB57Ss4M[/youtube]
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#4 Postby Chacor » Wed Dec 15, 2010 9:22 am

WTXS21 PGTW 150600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.6S 110.4E TO 20.6S 111.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 150000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.1S 110.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.3S
110.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.1S 110.6E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMOUTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED AND
CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER IMPROVE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A 150152Z PARTIAL
ASCAT PASS INDICATES 25 KNOT WINDS ON BOTH THE EASTERN AND WESTERN
SIDES OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE FOCUSED AWAY FROM THE
LLCC, PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE BENEATH THE MOST VIGOROUS
CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
30 KNOTS, AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1000 MB. DUE TO IMPROVING OUTFLOW, INTENSIFICATION AND ORGANIZATION
AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
160600Z.//

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Re: AUS (SEIO): Tropical Low (91S TCFA)

#5 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Dec 15, 2010 6:17 pm

Image

Latest
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#6 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Wed Dec 15, 2010 8:10 pm

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Coastal Waters Wind Warning
For Cape Preston to Carnarvon
Issued at 4:00 am WST on Thursday 16 December 2010

Synoptic situation
Tropical low near 20S 110E moving slowly south.

Gale Warning
Cape Preston to Onslow
N/NE winds 20/30 knots, reaching 25/33 knots west of Mardie. Winds further increasing to SE/NE 25/35 knots Friday morning. Seas to 3.0m. Swell N'ly to 3.0m.

Gale Warning
Onslow to Coral Bay
N/NE winds 20/30 knots, increasing from the north to 30/40 knots with squalls to 50 knots Thursday morning and early afternoon. Seas to 3.0m, rising to 3.5m Thursday. Swell N'ly to 3.0m.

Gale Warning
Coral Bay to Carnarvon
Winds strengthening to E/NE 20/30 knots Thursday afternoon, and further increasing to SE/NE 25/35 knots Friday morning. Seas to 3.0m. Swell N'ly to 3.0m.

The next warning will be issued by 11:00 am WST Thursday.
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 16, 2010 6:32 am

TCFA discontinued
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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 17, 2010 7:10 am

Image

way inland over Australia
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