CPAC: Tropical Storm OMEKA

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#101 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 20, 2010 11:24 pm

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Looks like a giant butterfly!!
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#102 Postby Chacor » Tue Dec 21, 2010 4:33 am

Extratropical.

WTPA31 PHFO 210845
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OMEKA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012010
1100 PM HST MON DEC 20 2010

...OMEKA BECOMES A GALE LOW FAR WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 173.4W
ABOUT 280 MI ESE OF MIDWAY ISLAND
ABOUT 930 MI KM WNW OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF OMEKA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 173.4 WEST. OMEKA IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OMEKA IS
BECOMING A GALE LOW...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME WEAKENING FORECAST BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

GALE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER...
MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
OMEKA WILL NOT IMPACT THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. BASED ON THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...THE CENTER OF OMEKA IS
PASSING JUST EAST OF LISIANSKI ISLAND IN THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS AS A GALE LOW. PERSONS ON THESE ISLANDS AND ATOLLS SHOULD
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS AND
INTERMITTENT HEAVY RAIN...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF OMEKA/S CENTER.
WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER ON OMEKA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN
BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER HSFNP AND WMO HEADER FZPN40 PHFO.

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON


WTPA41 PHFO 210902
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM OMEKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012010
1100 PM HST MON DEC 20 2010

THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF OMEKA HAS BECOME COMPLETELY
DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WITH THE NEAREST
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALMOST 50 NM NORTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED CENTER.
THE LATEST UW/CIMSS ESTIMATE INDICATES WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IN THE VICINITY OF OMEKA IS NEAR 28 KT. LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES PROVIDED BY THE FIX AGENCIES WERE 2.0 FROM SAB...WHILE HFO
AND JTWC INDICATED THE INTENSITY WAS 2.5. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT THE
INITIAL INTENSITY AS 35 KT AT 0600Z. HOWEVER...FOR THIS ADVISORY
PACKAGE...WHICH IS SENT OUT AT 0900Z...WE HAVE TRANSITIONED OMEKA TO
AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE LOW.

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 24
HOURS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST...FOLLOWING THE
CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL FORECASTS AT 36 HOURS. EVEN THOUGH OMEKA MAY
BE UNDERGOING SOME WEAKENING...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP IT AS A GALE LOW
THROUGH 24 HOURS FOR THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL
SOON BE OF CONCERN MAINLY TO MARINE INTERESTS ONCE IT DEPARTS THE
NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE 36 HOUR FORECAST ASSUMES THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN OR BE ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM ONCE IT
HAS MOVED FURTHER NORTH OVER COLDER WATERS.

BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AT 0900Z...THE CENTER OF OMEKA IS JUST
EAST OF LISIANSKI ISLAND IN THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...FAR
WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. SINCE MOST OF THE STRONG...GUSTY
WINDS AND ADVERSE WEATHER APPEAR TO BE EAST OF THE CENTER...THE
CONDITIONS AT LISIANSKI ISLAND APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS
THREATENING. ANY PERSONS ON ISLANDS AND ATOLLS EAST OF LISIANSKI
ISLAND MAY BE EXPERIENCING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH INTERMITTENT HEAVY
RAINFALL. THESE ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER ON OMEKA. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
HONOLULU...HAWAII UNDER AWIPS HEADER HSFNP AND WMO HEADER FZPN40
PHFO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0900Z 26.2N 173.4W 35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12HR VT 21/1800Z 28.5N 172.6W 35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24HR VT 22/0600Z 31.8N 171.8W 35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36HR VT 22/1800Z 34.1N 169.0W 30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
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Re: CPAC: Tropical Storm OMEKA

#103 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Dec 21, 2010 7:08 am

Talk about a late start to the Central Pacific Hurricane Season! :eek: :lol: This is one of the most surprising things to happen in 2010 in the tropics for me. I would have never expected this but the tropics had other plans. It's even during a La Nina no less. Latest start ever in any basin ever recorded and the most hilarious part was it formed when the season had already ended. Now we just need one more TS in the Atlantic to get to the V name :wink: .

Looking back at the satellite imagery, I think this is by far the most impressive "sub-tropical" storm I have ever seen. I think it was tropical when the eye formed and possibly a category 2 typhoon while in the Wpac. I suspect it was sub-tropical and transitioning to a fully tropical typhoon when it was near 65 knots which I haven't seen before and can't recall an example. It also is a rare sub-tropical cyclone for the Wpac as well since I can't think of many being at that state...usually tropical year round in the Wpac.

I'm not sure why the CPHC didn't mention how impressive this system was or the numerous records that were broken as a result of Omeka. I can think of around 5 records thus far and more impressive facts surrounding it.

Last question, why was the first track cone map from the CPHC in black and white with the area outside of the cone completely black? The colours were washed out.
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#104 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 21, 2010 7:50 am

Image

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#105 Postby Chacor » Tue Dec 21, 2010 8:55 am

Still generating some fairly deep convection just NE of the centre... Not quite fully extratropical yet imo.
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Re:

#106 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 21, 2010 8:56 am

Chacor wrote:Still generating some fairly deep convection just NE of the centre... Not quite fully extratropical yet imo.


I was thinking the same, I was actually surprised it was declared extratropical
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#107 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 21, 2010 9:36 am

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Nice pic!
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#108 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 21, 2010 10:12 am

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I think they pulled the trigger too fast
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#109 Postby Chacor » Tue Dec 21, 2010 10:39 am

Indeed, it seems convection is re-developing closer and closer to the circulation again. The storm that could never die...
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#110 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 21, 2010 10:41 am

Image Image

love to read the final report on this system!! Doesn't want to die!
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#111 Postby Chacor » Tue Dec 21, 2010 11:08 am

That's a tropical storm if you ask me.
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Re:

#112 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 21, 2010 11:13 am

Chacor wrote:That's a tropical storm if you ask me.


Agree 100%

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#113 Postby Chacor » Tue Dec 21, 2010 11:51 am

There's honestly no way this could legitimately be classified as extratropical with that much organised convection - emphasis mine - so close to the centre.
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Re: CPAC: Tropical Storm OMEKA

#114 Postby HurricaneRyan » Tue Dec 21, 2010 3:26 pm

These guys can't accept the fact that we have a tropical storm that is acting like Jason Mraz's I'm Yours.
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#115 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Dec 21, 2010 7:36 pm

Definitely it is a tropical system. If it has no circulation, it would be best-classified as a post-tropical low. If it has a circulation, it is a tropical cyclone. But extratropical is laughable.
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Re: CPAC: Tropical Storm OMEKA

#116 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 21, 2010 8:11 pm

It was a very interesting system to watch and some changes may occur to the best track at the final report.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 012010.ren

CPHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_cp012010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201012211444
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
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#117 Postby RL3AO » Tue Dec 21, 2010 8:22 pm

One of the stranger systems of the season, if I say so myself.
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#118 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Dec 22, 2010 7:49 pm

The ONLY system of the season out there though :lol:
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Re:

#119 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Dec 22, 2010 8:02 pm

brunota2003 wrote:The ONLY system of the season out there though :lol:


Only system of the year, the "season" didn't have any storms!!!
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Re: CPAC: Tropical Storm OMEKA

#120 Postby Iune » Thu Dec 23, 2010 8:08 pm

cycloneye wrote:It was a very interesting system to watch and some changes may occur to the best track at the final report.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 012010.ren

CPHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_cp012010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201012211444
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END


The NHC/CPHC issues de-activations for named storms. I cannot remember the last time this happened...
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