Nice loops
CPAC: Tropical Storm OMEKA
Moderator: S2k Moderators
T3.5/3.5 from SAB doesn't tell the whole story, read the satellite bulletin:
TXPN27 KNES 190306
SIMWIR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98C)
B. 19/0230Z
C. 21.9N
D. 179.1E
E. ONE/GOES-W
F. T3.5/3.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...OW EYE IS EMBEDDED IN DG AND SURROUNDED BY DG RESULTING
IN A DT OF 4.5. FT BASED ON CONSTRAINTS.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK
They analysed a Data-T number of 4.5. Final-T had to be kept to 3.5 because of Dvorak constraints. A T4.5 would mean 77 kts.
TXPN27 KNES 190306
SIMWIR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98C)
B. 19/0230Z
C. 21.9N
D. 179.1E
E. ONE/GOES-W
F. T3.5/3.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...OW EYE IS EMBEDDED IN DG AND SURROUNDED BY DG RESULTING
IN A DT OF 4.5. FT BASED ON CONSTRAINTS.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK
They analysed a Data-T number of 4.5. Final-T had to be kept to 3.5 because of Dvorak constraints. A T4.5 would mean 77 kts.
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CPHC is expecting to name this:
ACPN50 PHFO 190603
TWOCP
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SAT DEC 18 2010
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
1. A GALE LOW LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE ABOUT
500 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MIDWAY ATOLL...WHICH IS MOVING TOWARD
THE SOUTH AT LESS 10 MPH...CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS
MAINTAINING A WELL DEFINED AND PERSISTENT AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
ITS CENTER. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL TURN BACK
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR EAST LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING IT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY BY LATE SUNDAY. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS GALE
LOW...SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN HONOLULU...HAWAII
UNDER AWIPS HEADER HSFNP...OR WMO HEADER FZPN40 PHFO.
ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
$$
HOUSTON
--> The next CPAC name is Omeka.
ACPN50 PHFO 190603
TWOCP
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SAT DEC 18 2010
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
1. A GALE LOW LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE ABOUT
500 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MIDWAY ATOLL...WHICH IS MOVING TOWARD
THE SOUTH AT LESS 10 MPH...CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS
MAINTAINING A WELL DEFINED AND PERSISTENT AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
ITS CENTER. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL TURN BACK
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR EAST LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING IT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY BY LATE SUNDAY. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS GALE
LOW...SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN HONOLULU...HAWAII
UNDER AWIPS HEADER HSFNP...OR WMO HEADER FZPN40 PHFO.
ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
$$
HOUSTON
--> The next CPAC name is Omeka.
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StormingB81
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5676
- Age: 42
- Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
- Location: Rockledge, Florida
ACPN50 PHFO 191145
TWOCP
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SUN DEC 19 2010
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
1. A GALE LOW LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE ABOUT
525 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MIDWAY ATOLL...WHICH IS MOVING TOWARD
THE SOUTH AT LESS 10 MPH...CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS
MAINTAINING A PERSISTENT RING OF THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING ITS WELL
DEFINED CENTER. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL TURN BACK
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR EAST TODAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING IT BACK
INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS GALE LOW...SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST ISSUED FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN HONOLULU...HAWAII UNDER AWIPS HEADER
HSFNP...OR WMO HEADER FZPN40 PHFO.
ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.
$$
HOUSTON
TWOCP
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SUN DEC 19 2010
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
1. A GALE LOW LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE ABOUT
525 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MIDWAY ATOLL...WHICH IS MOVING TOWARD
THE SOUTH AT LESS 10 MPH...CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS
MAINTAINING A PERSISTENT RING OF THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING ITS WELL
DEFINED CENTER. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL TURN BACK
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR EAST TODAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING IT BACK
INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS GALE LOW...SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST ISSUED FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN HONOLULU...HAWAII UNDER AWIPS HEADER
HSFNP...OR WMO HEADER FZPN40 PHFO.
ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.
$$
HOUSTON
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
BEGIN
CPHC_ATCF
invest_cp882010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201012190422
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
OMEKA, CP, C, , , , , 88, 2010, TS, O, 2010121906, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 1, CP882010
CP, 88, 2010121806, , BEST, 0, 238N, 1786W, 30, 999, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 88, 2010121812, , BEST, 0, 236N, 1787W, 30, 999, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 35, 0, 0,
CP, 88, 2010121818, , BEST, 0, 230N, 1798W, 35, 999, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 70, 70, 70, 850, 0, 35, 0, 0,
CP, 88, 2010121900, , BEST, 0, 222N, 1794E, 40, 999, TS, 34, NEQ, 80, 80, 80, 80, 850, 0, 35, 0, 0,
CP, 88, 2010121906, , BEST, 0, 216N, 1794E, 45, 998, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 90, 90, 90, 1004, 200, 35, 55, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, OMEKA, D,
CP, 88, 2010121912, , BEST, 0, 212N, 1793E, 50, 997, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 90, 90, 90, 1004, 200, 15, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, OMEKA, D,
CP, 88, 2010121912, , BEST, 0, 212N, 1793E, 50, 997, TS, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 40, 40, 1004, 200, 15, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, OMEKA, D,
CPHC_ATCF
invest_cp882010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201012190422
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
OMEKA, CP, C, , , , , 88, 2010, TS, O, 2010121906, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 1, CP882010
CP, 88, 2010121806, , BEST, 0, 238N, 1786W, 30, 999, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 88, 2010121812, , BEST, 0, 236N, 1787W, 30, 999, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 35, 0, 0,
CP, 88, 2010121818, , BEST, 0, 230N, 1798W, 35, 999, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 70, 70, 70, 850, 0, 35, 0, 0,
CP, 88, 2010121900, , BEST, 0, 222N, 1794E, 40, 999, TS, 34, NEQ, 80, 80, 80, 80, 850, 0, 35, 0, 0,
CP, 88, 2010121906, , BEST, 0, 216N, 1794E, 45, 998, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 90, 90, 90, 1004, 200, 35, 55, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, OMEKA, D,
CP, 88, 2010121912, , BEST, 0, 212N, 1793E, 50, 997, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 90, 90, 90, 1004, 200, 15, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, OMEKA, D,
CP, 88, 2010121912, , BEST, 0, 212N, 1793E, 50, 997, TS, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 40, 40, 1004, 200, 15, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, OMEKA, D,
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Re:
HURAKAN wrote:
incredible that JMA and the JTWC are so silent on this
The JTWC do not warn on subtropical cyclones, and neither do the JMA, despite the CPHC (and reality) calling it tropical.
Actually, JMA now have this as a tropical depression, believe it or not.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA
AT 21.2N 179.3E MIDWAYS MOVING SOUTHSOUTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
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