CPAC: Tropical Storm OMEKA

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Re: CPAC: Invest 98C

#41 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Dec 19, 2010 12:35 pm

98C should be named. It looks like a typhoon to me. It is a very small storm like Humberto. What's strange is that it is forming in a La Nina.
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Re: CPAC: Invest 98C

#42 Postby Hurricanehink » Sun Dec 19, 2010 12:42 pm

If anyone is wondering whether this invest is unlike any other tropical cyclone, it's because it is. The system is what's called a Kona low, which are storms of extratropical origin that occur northwest of Hawaii three times per year. (See Wikipedia - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kona_low)

If it gets classified as a (sub)tropical cyclone in the CPHC, it will have set several records. First, it would mean this year would tie with 1977 as the least active on record with eight Pacific cyclones east of the dateline (as of now, this year has the record alone). "Omeka" will be one of only seven off-season EPAC (east of DL) storms in the best track, and one of just three in December (others being Paka in CPAC 97 and Winnie in EPAC 83). It will be the furthest north for any off-season EPAC storm, and additionally, assuming it maintains its forward motion, it will be moving south at a further north latitude than any other C/EPAC storm. In fact, very few EPAC storms had a due south motion at all (loops are very uncommon, but Lane 00 and Boris 90 are examples).
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Re: CPAC: Invest 98C

#43 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Dec 19, 2010 1:09 pm

98C has a name and it is Omeka in Best Track.

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 010.invest
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Re: CPAC: Invest 98C

#44 Postby Iune » Sun Dec 19, 2010 1:45 pm

When will the first advisory be then? 2PM EDT or 5PM EDT?
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Re: CPAC: Invest 98C

#45 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 19, 2010 1:52 pm

Phoenix's Song wrote:When will the first advisory be then? 2PM EDT or 5PM EDT?


It's still in the WPAC. The CPHC needs to wait until it goes back into their area.
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Re: CPAC: Invest 98C

#46 Postby Grifforzer » Sun Dec 19, 2010 1:54 pm

19/1430 UTC 21.0N 179.1E T4.5/4.5 98C -- West Pacific

--
yup still west of the international dateline to get advisories from Central Pacific Hurricane Center
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Re: CPAC: Invest 98C

#47 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 19, 2010 1:55 pm

Issued: Dec 19, 2010 8:00 am HST

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. A gale low located just west of the international dateline about 610 miles south southwest of Midway atoll and 1480 miles west of Honolulu, which is moving toward the south at less than 10 mph, continues to exhibit tropical characteristics as it moves over warmer waters. This system is maintaining a persistent ring of thunderstorms surrounding its well defined center. Forecast models indicate this system will turn back toward the southeast or east today, which will likely bring it back into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center area of responsibility later today or tonight. There is a high chance, 90 percent, of this system being a tropical cyclone as it crosses back into the central north Pacific basin during the next 48 hours. For additional information on this gale low, see the high seas forecast issued for the north Pacific ocean by the National Weather Service forecast office in Honolulu, Hawaii under AWIPS header hsfnp, or WMO header fzpn40 PHFO.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Tuesday morning.
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#48 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 19, 2010 2:01 pm

Image

Nice pic
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Re: CPAC: Invest 98C

#49 Postby Reesie » Sun Dec 19, 2010 2:51 pm

98C has not been named yet - The sources people are linking above are for 88C in other words the CPHC have decided to run a test.
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#50 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 19, 2010 3:08 pm

Image

Image

Latest
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#51 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 19, 2010 3:21 pm

Image

looks like a tropical storm now
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Re: CPAC: Invest 98C

#52 Postby Grifforzer » Sun Dec 19, 2010 3:43 pm

3:00 AM JST

Tropical Depression (998 hPa)
Midway Islands
20.5N 179.2E
10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots
moving south at 7 knots.
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Re: CPAC: Invest 98C

#53 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 19, 2010 6:11 pm

Image

Latest
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Re: CPAC: Invest 98C

#54 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 19, 2010 6:12 pm

Image

Moving closer to the CPAC
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Re: CPAC: Invest 98C

#55 Postby cycloneye » Sun Dec 19, 2010 6:53 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 179.8E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 179.3E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MIDWAY ATOLL. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CENTRAL CONVECTION ALOFT, HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPEAR
SUBTROPICAL. 2130Z MTSAT-IR DEPICTS AN INFLOW OF COLD-AIR
STRATOCUMULUS FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE
CIMMS TOTAL PRECIPITALBE WATER PRODUCT INDICATES COOL, DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM. MOVEMENT IS NOW EASTERLY AT APPROXIMATELY 7 KTS AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST TO NORTHEAST AROUND THE EDGE OF THE
OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 45 TO 55 KNOTS BASED ON
2030Z PGTW DVORAK INTENSITIES AND 1828Z WINDSAT PRODUCT. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 990 MB. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS SUBTROPICAL AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. BASED ON THE ABOVE
ASSESSMENT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

Image
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#56 Postby Chacor » Sun Dec 19, 2010 7:29 pm

JTWC still think this is subtropical. They're very clearly mistaken.
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#57 Postby Chacor » Sun Dec 19, 2010 7:54 pm

Expecting CPHC to begin warnings maybe at 0300 UTC. The most recent message from CPHC:

ATHW40 PHFO 200046
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC MON DEC 20 2010

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC DECEMBER 20 2010

...

A GALE LOW WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE NEAR 20.2N 179.9E...OR ABOUT 630 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
MIDWAY ATOLL. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 10 MPH...AND CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS
IT MOVES OVER WARM WATERS. THIS SYSTEM WILL RETURN INTO THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY BY THIS EVENING.
FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS GALE LOW...SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
ISSUED FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE IN HONOLULU...HAWAII UNDER AWIPS HEADER HSFNP...OR
WMO HEADER FZPN40 PHFO.

$$

POWELL
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#58 Postby neospaceblue » Sun Dec 19, 2010 8:15 pm

IMO, I think this may have been quite a bit stronger than what the CPHC and JTWC were saying.
Image
In this image, it actually looks BETTER than some Category 4 hurricanes I have seen.
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#59 Postby Chacor » Sun Dec 19, 2010 8:19 pm

Its highest Dvorak rating was only a T4.5/4.5 from SAB, or 77 knots. I wouldn't go that far as to claim it was a Cat 4.
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Re:

#60 Postby neospaceblue » Sun Dec 19, 2010 8:29 pm

Chacor wrote:Its highest Dvorak rating was only a T4.5/4.5 from SAB, or 77 knots. I wouldn't go that far as to claim it was a Cat 4.


I wasn't saying that it was a Category 4, I was just saying that it looked better than some Category 4 hurricanes. The highest I would go for this is Category 2.
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