CPAC: Tropical Storm OMEKA

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Re: CPAC: Invest 98C

#61 Postby cycloneye » Sun Dec 19, 2010 8:39 pm

Almost reaching the CPAC.

CP, 98, 2010122000, , BEST, 0, 202N, 1799E, 45, 997, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest
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#62 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 19, 2010 10:08 pm

Image

inside the CPAC
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#63 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 19, 2010 10:10 pm

Image

westerly shear appears to be on the increase
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#64 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 19, 2010 10:28 pm

BEGIN
CPHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_cp982010_cp012010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201012191715
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, CP, C, , , , , 01, 2010, DB, O, 2010121806, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , CP012010
CP, 01, 2010121712, , BEST, 0, 264N, 1777W, 30, 1005, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 01, 2010121718, , BEST, 0, 250N, 1780W, 30, 1003, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 01, 2010121800, , BEST, 0, 242N, 1785W, 30, 1002, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 01, 2010121806, , BEST, 0, 238N, 1786W, 30, 1002, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1004, 145, 35, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
CP, 01, 2010121812, , BEST, 0, 236N, 1787W, 30, 999, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1004, 145, 35, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
CP, 01, 2010121818, , BEST, 0, 230N, 1798W, 30, 999, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1004, 145, 35, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
CP, 01, 2010121900, , BEST, 0, 222N, 1794E, 30, 999, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 01, 2010121906, , BEST, 0, 216N, 1791E, 30, 999, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 01, 2010121912, , BEST, 0, 210N, 1791E, 30, 999, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 01, 2010121918, , BEST, 0, 204N, 1791E, 30, 999, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 01, 2010122000, , BEST, 0, 201N, 1799E, 45, 997, DB, 34, NEQ, 45, 45, 45, 45, 1004, 145, 25, 55, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
CP, 01, 2010122002, , BEST, 0, 201N, 1799W, 45, 997, TS, 34, NEQ, 45, 45, 45, 45,
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#65 Postby Chacor » Sun Dec 19, 2010 10:34 pm

Just waiting for the advisory now.
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Re: CPAC: Invest 98C

#66 Postby Grifforzer » Sun Dec 19, 2010 11:41 pm

9:00 AM JST

Tropical Depression
Midway Islands
20.2N 179.9E (998 hPa)
10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots.
moving east southeast at 7 knots.
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#67 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 20, 2010 12:10 am

Image

Image

TC 01C
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#68 Postby Chacor » Mon Dec 20, 2010 12:32 am

ATHW40 PHFO 200530
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0530 UTC MON DEC 20 2010

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0500 UTC DECEMBER 20 2010

THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REMAINED UNDER A SHROUD OF MULTI-LAYERED
CLOUDS THIS SUNDAY EVENING. THESE CLOUDS THAT WERE COVERING THE
ISLANDS WERE PART OF A LARGE SWATH OF SIMILAR CLOUDS THAT COVERED
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM THE ISLANDS WEST TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE. THE BULK OF THE CLOUD MASS WAS WITHIN A TRIANGULAR SHAPED
REGION. THE SOUTH EDGE OF THIS REGION RAN FROM 08N 180E TO 25N
140W. THE WEST EDGE EXTENDED FROM 11N 180E TO 22N 170W TO 26N 180E
TO 30N 180E. THE NORTH EDGE WAS ROUGHLY ALONG 30N LATITUDE FROM THE
DATELINE THROUGH 140W LONGITUDE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 26N 175W
WAS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND SHOWING SOME SLIGHT SIGNS OF
WEAKENING. HIDDEN BENEATH THE MASS OF CLOUDS WAS A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG WHICH MUCH OF THE UNSTABLE...WET WEATHER WAS
OCCURRING.

THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDED ROUGHLY FROM 09N 180E TO 15N
170W TO 20N 167W TO 28N 168W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING
ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE MAINLY FROM 09N TO 22N LATITUDES. THE
COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE -71 DEGREES CELSIUS
WHICH RELATED TO HEIGHTS OF NEARLY 45000 FEET.

ANOTHER WEAKER AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AS EVIDENCE BY THE
FLOW OF LOW CLOUDS ON EARLIER VISIBLE IMAGERY...WAS ROUGHLY FROM
17N 158W TO NEAR 24N 157W. THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE RAN NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WAS NOTED
SOUTH OF THE STATE. ONE STORM ABOUT 55 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MAUI AT 7 PM. THE STORMS IN THE AREA WERE DRIFTING TOWARD
EAST-NORTHEAST WHILE LOWER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WERE MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH.

A WEAK FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH 25N 140W TO 25N 150W TO NEAR 26N
160W. THE FRONT WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. THE ASSOCIATED
CLOUD BAND NORTH OF THE FRONT WAS JUST OVER 300 MILES WIDE.

A WEAK OUT OF SEASON TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED NEAR THE DATELINE
AROUND 20N RECENTLY. CURRENTLY THE STORM WAS NEAR 20N 179W AND
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MILES AN HOUR.


$$
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#69 Postby Hurricanehink » Mon Dec 20, 2010 1:17 am

Is there any update on this? Does anyone know why there isn't an advisory?
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#70 Postby Chacor » Mon Dec 20, 2010 1:19 am

The first advisory will be at 0900 UTC from CPHC. JTWC's 0600Z bulletin notes its first warning will be at 20/1000 UTC, which means the CPHC will issue theirs an hour earlier.

THE SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.1N
179.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 178.9W, APPROXIMATELY 485 NM SOUTH
OF MIDWAY ATOLL. THE SYSTEM HAS CROSSED THE DATELINE INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER'S AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY AND HAS
TRANSITIONED INTO A TROPICAL STORM. IT IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PHNC 201000) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
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#71 Postby Chacor » Mon Dec 20, 2010 1:44 am

TXPN41 PHFO 200634 CCA
TCSNP1

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0627 UTC MON DEC 20 2010

A. 01C (OMEKA)

B. 20/0530Z

C. 20.4N

D. 178.9E

E. MTSAT

F. T/2.5/3.0/W1.0/24 HRS

G. IR/VIS

H. REMARKS...LLCC UNDER W EDGE OF DENSE OVERCAST AS SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO EXPERIENCE SHEARING. POSITION BASED ON ANIMATION AND VIEWING OF
OF WELL FORMED...PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. DT OF 2.5 BASED ON LOG10
WRAP OF .4. MET ALSO 2.5. PAT 3.0. FT BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS
NONE

$$
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Re:

#72 Postby AJC3 » Mon Dec 20, 2010 3:15 am

HURAKAN wrote:BEGIN
CPHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_cp982010_cp012010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201012191715
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, CP, C, , , , , 01, 2010, DB, O, 2010121806, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , CP012010
CP, 01, 2010121712, , BEST, 0, 264N, 1777W, 30, 1005, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 01, 2010121718, , BEST, 0, 250N, 1780W, 30, 1003, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 01, 2010121800, , BEST, 0, 242N, 1785W, 30, 1002, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 01, 2010121806, , BEST, 0, 238N, 1786W, 30, 1002, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1004, 145, 35, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
CP, 01, 2010121812, , BEST, 0, 236N, 1787W, 30, 999, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1004, 145, 35, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
CP, 01, 2010121818, , BEST, 0, 230N, 1798W, 30, 999, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1004, 145, 35, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
CP, 01, 2010121900, , BEST, 0, 222N, 1794E, 30, 999, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 01, 2010121906, , BEST, 0, 216N, 1791E, 30, 999, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 01, 2010121912, , BEST, 0, 210N, 1791E, 30, 999, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 01, 2010121918, , BEST, 0, 204N, 1791E, 30, 999, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 01, 2010122000, , BEST, 0, 201N, 1799E, 45, 997, DB, 34, NEQ, 45, 45, 45, 45, 1004, 145, 25, 55, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
CP, 01, 2010122002, , BEST, 0, 201N, 1799W, 45, 997, TS, 34, NEQ, 45, 45, 45, 45,



I suspect those intensities will get a pretty serious revision. If the 20/00Z intensity was 45kt, which is about 12-18 hours
after westerly shear had begun impacting it, then the intensities the previous 36 hours are probably 20-30kt too low, at least. Given the rather warm nature of the central convection, even with an eye-like feature, 55-65 knots, give or take, would be a good estimate for peak intensity IMHO.
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#73 Postby Chacor » Mon Dec 20, 2010 3:38 am

That's the official ATCF file as the JTWC didn't want to call it a TS/TY. There's another file, 88C, up to 12z last night with a peak of 55 kt.

Anyway...

WTPA41 PHFO 200833
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM OMEKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012010
1033 PM HST SUN DEC 19 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM OMEKA...WHICH MOVED
EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS...HAS
ASSUMED A SHEARED PATTERN WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WEST OF A DENSE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER. THE TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 3.0 OR 45 KT FROM HFO.
PERSISTENT SHEAR FROM THE WEST WILL EVENTUALLY CAUSE THE DEMISE OF
OMEKA IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.

THE 06Z OFFICIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 0530Z FIX FROM HFO. INITIAL
MOTION IS TO THE NORTHEAST AT 14 MPH...AND IS FORECAST TO TURN TO
THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE TRACK MOVES OMEKA EAST
OF MIDWAY ISLAND AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS IN
THE MIDDLE OF A LIMITED NUMBER OF OBJECTIVE AIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0900Z 20.9N 178.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 20/1800Z 22.0N 176.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 24.9N 175.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 21/1800Z 28.7N 174.4W 30 KT
48HR VT 22/0600Z 33.4N 174.8W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CRAIG
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#74 Postby Chacor » Mon Dec 20, 2010 4:00 am

WTPA31 PHFO 200747
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OMEKA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012010
1100 PM HST SUN DEC 19 2010

...TROPICAL STORM OMEKA FAR WEST OF HAWAII AND TURNING TO THE
NORTH...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 178.2W
ABOUT 505 MI S OF MIDWAY ISLAND
ABOUT 1210 MI W OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMEKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 178.2 WEST. OMEKA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH AND IS FORECAST TO TURN TO
THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER CRAIG
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#75 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 20, 2010 6:13 am

Image

Image

Tracks
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#76 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Mon Dec 20, 2010 6:24 am

Wow, this one really had me suprised!
Last edited by RobWESTPACWX on Tue Dec 21, 2010 12:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#77 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 20, 2010 6:38 am

Link - http://www.hawaii247.com/2010/12/19/tro ... of-hawaii/

This site has a nice video showing Omeka's genesis
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#78 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 20, 2010 7:19 am

Image

Latest
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#79 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 20, 2010 7:31 am

Image

Nice loop
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Re: CPAC: Tropical Storm OMEKA

#80 Postby Macrocane » Mon Dec 20, 2010 8:30 am

:eek: What an incredible little system, who would've thought that the CPAC season was going to have its only tropical cyclone so late in the season. It seems that the basin is going to get its own Vince, or at least got its own Grace.
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