SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE TASHA (04P)

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SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE TASHA (04P)

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 24, 2010 10:48 am

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AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.1S 149.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 200 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE
ABOUT A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OFF THE COAST OF
QUEENSLAND. A 240753Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS PRIMITIVE BANDING
FEEDING INTO AN EASILY IDENTIFIABLE LLCC. AUSTRALIAN RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN AREA OF TURNING OUTLINED BY MODERATE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN BOUGAINVILLE AND HOLMES REEF. HOWEVER,
OBSERVATIONS FROM THESE SITES DO NOT SUPPORT A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION DUE TO A LACK OF SURFACE WESTERLIES. SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
HAS ALSO FALLEN 3 TO 6 MB IN THE REGION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND
HAS STEADIED NEAR 1000 MB. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IMPROVING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
Last edited by HURAKAN on Fri Dec 24, 2010 2:37 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 24, 2010 10:48 am

24/1432 UTC 16.6S 147.4E T2.5/2.5 94P -- Southwest Pacific

35 knots
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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 24, 2010 10:49 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 12:14am EST on Saturday the 25th of December 2010

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Port Douglas to
Lucinda.

At 11:00 pm EST a Tropical Low was estimated to be
175 kilometres east northeast of Cairns and
235 kilometres northeast of Cardwell and
moving southwest at 28 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

The tropical low, with gusts up to 85 km/h is expected to continue moving
towards the north tropical coast and intensify. The low is expected to cross the
coast between Cairns and Cardwell early Saturday morning. There is the potential
for the system to reach weak category 1 tropical cyclone intensity prior to
landfall.

DAMAGING winds of up to 100 km/hr are possible between Port Douglas and Lucinda
as the system approaches the coast during Saturday morning.

Heavy rainfall and associated flooding will continue in coastal areas between
Cairns and St Lawrence overnight and extend inland during Saturday. A separate
Severe Weather Warning is also current.

People between Port Douglas and Cardwell should take precautions and listen to
the next advice at 3am.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

Details of Tropical Low at 11:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 16.6 degrees South 147.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 28 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am EST Saturday 25 December.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.


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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 24, 2010 11:10 am

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Looking good
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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 24, 2010 11:11 am

Image

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPS21 PGTW 241600
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.3S 147.4E TO 18.8S 143.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 29 TO 34 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA AND RADAR DATA AT 241530Z INDICATE THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 147.5E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 251600Z.
//
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Re: SPO: INVEST 94P

#6 Postby P.K. » Fri Dec 24, 2010 11:13 am

Updated advisory doesn't seem to be out yet but this is now Tropical Cyclone Tasha.
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 24, 2010 11:14 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 2:11am EST on Saturday the 25th of December 2010

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Port Douglas to
Cardwell.

At 1:00 am EST Tropical Cyclone Tasha, Category 1, was estimated to be
95 kilometres east northeast of Cairns and 195 kilometres north northeast of
Cardwell and is moving west southwest at 31 kilometres per hour towards the
coast.

GALES have already been observed offshore and should develop about coastal parts
over the next several hours.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS of up to 100 km/h are expected to develop about the north
tropical coast and continue throughout Saturday morning.

HEAVY RAINFALL and associated flooding will continue in coastal areas between
Port Douglas and Cardwell and extend inland during Saturday.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is also current for areas south of Cardwell.



People between Port Douglas and Cardwell should remain inside until the cyclone
has passed and listen to the next advice at 5 am.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

Details of Tropical Cyclone Tasha at 1:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 16.6 degrees South 146.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 31 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am EST Saturday 25 December.


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#8 Postby Chacor » Fri Dec 24, 2010 11:23 am

Landfall is expected in the next 12 hours so no real time to strengthen, but this will definitely be a nasty Christmas surprise...
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#9 Postby Chacor » Fri Dec 24, 2010 11:24 am

Actually, make that three hours. Based on the maths in the advisory (95 km ENE of Cairns at 1500 UTC; WSW at 31 km/h) landfall should be around 1800 UTC.
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#10 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 24, 2010 2:13 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 5:07am EST on Saturday the 25th of December 2010

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Port Douglas to
Cardwell.

At 4:00 am EST Tropical Cyclone Tasha, Category 1 was estimated to be
25 kilometres east southeast of Cairns and 140 kilometres north of Cardwell and
is moving west southwest at 31 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

The CYCLONE is expected to cross the coast between Cairns and Innisfail between
5am and 7am EST Saturday morning.

GALES have already been observed offshore and should develop about coastal parts
over the next few hours.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS of up to 100 km/h are expected to develop about the north
tropical coast and continue throughout Saturday morning.

HEAVY RAINFALL and associated flooding will continue in coastal areas between
Port Douglas and Cardwell and extend inland during Saturday.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is also current for areas south of Cardwell.



People between Port Douglas and Cardwell should remain inside until the cyclone
has passed and listen to the next advice at 8 am.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

Details of Tropical Cyclone Tasha at 4:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 17.0 degrees South 146.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 31 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 993 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 8:00 am EST Saturday 25 December.


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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 24, 2010 2:16 pm

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Latest
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#12 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 24, 2010 2:19 pm

Image

WTPS31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (TASHA) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241551ZDEC2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (TASHA) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 17.1S 146.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 146.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 18.7S 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.6S 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 145.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (TASHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 35 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, AS
WELL AS CAIRNS RADAR IMAGERY AND A 241533Z TRMM IMAGE INDICATE A
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ARLINGTON REEF, APPROXIMATELY 25 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF THE 24/18Z POSITION, AND A 241117Z ASCAT IMAGE SUPPORT
PEAK SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AS HIGH AS 37 KNOTS WITH A MINIMUM SLP
OF 994 MB. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS AS
WELL AS DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE RADAR AND
TRMM IMAGERY. TC 04P IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL, AS A 35-45 KNOT SYSTEM, SOUTH OF CAIRNS WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. TC 04P IS FORECAST TO TURN INCREASINGLY SOUTHWARD AS
THE STR WEAKENS DUE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH,
AND SHOULD DISSIPATE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 241551Z DEC
10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 241600). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250900Z.//
NNNN
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#13 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 24, 2010 2:21 pm

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Looking good before landfall
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#14 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 24, 2010 2:30 pm

Image

Image

Appears to be stronger than a minimal tropical storm
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#15 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 24, 2010 2:34 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1853 UTC 24/12/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone Tasha
Identifier: 05U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 17.0S
Longitude: 146.0E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [251 deg]
Speed of Movement: 17 knots [31 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 993 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 25/0600: 17.7S 142.9E: 050 [095]: 020 [035]: 1001
+24: 25/1800: 18.4S 140.8E: 060 [110]: 015 [030]: 1006
+36: 26/0600: 18.4S 139.7E: 090 [165]: 015 [030]: 1005
+48: 26/1800: 19.6S 140.7E: 110 [205]: 015 [030]: 1004
+60: 27/0600: 20.0S 142.4E: 150 [280]: 015 [030]: 1005
+72: 27/1800: : : :
REMARKS:
System is already interacting with the coastline, and is not expected to develop
further. Classification based on pressure and wind observations with Dvorak
struggling to adequately describe the system.

The system should move over land and weaken rapidly in the next 6 hours.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/0100 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
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#16 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 24, 2010 3:25 pm

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Seems like WU has a graphic problem!!
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Re: SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE TASHA (04P)

#17 Postby Macrocane » Fri Dec 24, 2010 4:07 pm

:eek: Pretty impressive little system, do the southern hemisphere agencies issue special advisories or something? they should do it in cases like this.

By the way, I sometime get the feeling that the NHC is the only agency that cares for microwave imagery, other agencies usually ignore them and are based mostly in Dvorak classifications.
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#18 Postby KatDaddy » Fri Dec 24, 2010 4:33 pm

Very impressive small TC. Looks like is it was bombing at LF
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Re: SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE TASHA (04P)

#19 Postby P.K. » Fri Dec 24, 2010 5:34 pm

05U no longer a TC.

AXAU21 ABRF 242212
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 2212 UTC 24/12/2010
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Tasha
Identifier: 05U
Data At: 2100 UTC
Latitude: 17.2S
Longitude: 145.5E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [240 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [22 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code:
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1001 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 25/0900: 17.9S 142.5E: 050 [095]: 015 [030]: 1000
+24: 25/2100: 18.6S 140.9E: 080 [150]: 015 [030]: 1002
+36: 26/0900: 19.4S 141.2E: 110 [210]: 015 [030]: 1002
+48: 26/2100: 20.8S 142.5E: 145 [270]: 015 [030]: 1003
+60: 27/0900: 20.0S 143.9E: 190 [355]: 015 [030]: 1003
+72: 27/2100: 19.5S 143.6E: 240 [445]: 015 [030]: 1004
REMARKS:
System has weakened below Tropical Cyclone intensity and is expected to continue
weakening as it travels inland.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: No further bulletins.
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Re:

#20 Postby Ptarmigan » Fri Dec 24, 2010 5:36 pm

KatDaddy wrote:Very impressive small TC. Looks like is it was bombing at LF


Indeed. It is even smaller than Humberto or Katrina when it first hit Florida.
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